“…goin’ down in the first round”

As Muhammad Ali might say, referring to the Climate Prediction Center’s three month outlook that was for dry conditions in Arizona from November to January.  So, the first round, November into early December, has delivered quite a punch against drought with another 0.40 inches here in Catalina last night.  Our December total is already 0.82 inches!  Rains have been bountiful, too, during this period in some parts of NM and Texas, horribly stricken with drought, so its been great run of drought smashing weather.   Check the latest 30 day US precip totals here (does not include the heavy rains of yesterday in TX, however).   And from WSI Intellicast, this 7 day total precip map.   Excellent.    In Catalina we now have had 2.63 inches since the beginning of November.

Below, the CPC forecast for November through January for the US issued last October 20th.  These predictions are weighted by the “moderate” La Nina event now going on in the central and eastern Pacific.  A La Nina leads to greater chances of dry conditions throughout most of the southern US.  Hence,  this forecast.  However, the correlations between a La Nina and the map shown below leave plenty of wiggle room, especially early in the winter.  Later in the winter is when the great southern US storm deflecting property of a La Nina has its greatest power, so it’s really good that we’re getting slammed early by decent rains; it might be a very dry late winter and spring.

Remember 1971-72?  And how wet it was in November and December in the SW, and then poof, almost nothing in the way of precip after January 1st?  It was awful. (I was weather forecasting in Durango, CO, then.  ((Hay! Not for TEEVEE, but for a randomized cloud seeding experiment!))

Had some pretty Cumulus clouds yesterday before the gray Nimbostratus layer moved in.  Here are a couple of shots around the Catalina area.  Always nice to see snow on the Catalina Mountains.

The last one is from today showing the gorgeous scenes, changing by the minute as the cloud shadows roll by, of the low level on the snow on the Catalinas.   Even here at just under 3200 feet elevation, last night’s rain ended with light snow for a few minutes.

Mods (from U of AZ Wildcats) don’t see precip from this next cold trough, one that lands on us tomorrow.  Darn.

Suddenly, it occurred to me that I want you to look at these forecast maps from IPS Meteostar for the next 15 days.  Just changed this to the intermediate model run, updated at 06 Z, 11 PM LST.  Much more “interesting”–means this writer saw MUCH more precip in AZ on the updated model run just now.  Check out the massive trough 12-15 days out and cross fingers.  Man, this is an exciting new change!

The End.