Heavenly model

From our friends in Canada, this fabulous sequence for AZ.  An example:

Valid for Friday afternoon, 5 PM,m November 22nd.  Arrow points to beau coup eastern AZ precip amounts
Valid for Friday afternoon, 5 PM AST,  November 22nd. Arrow points to beau coup eastern AZ precip amounts.

The loop above, generated by last evening’s global obs by the Enviro Can “GEM” model might be the best a numerical model can put out for Arizona.  It might even be the best model day of my life ever here (which hasn’t been that long, but still…).


1.  Trough races into the precip “Red Zone”, located immediately SW of AZ.  Rain moves in on Friday into Catalina and environs.

2.  Trough forms circular, spinning low aloft there, that wanders slightly in place. Cloud and precip rush into Arizona, and it just doesn’t quit as wave after wave of clouds and rain move up from Mexico, the Gulf of Cal-Sea of Cortez, and the Pacific off Baja while the low center dawdles.

3. Low crosses into AZ and departs AZ late Sunday after showery day.

In sum, showery rainy conditions beginning on Friday, continuing into Sunday.

Amounts should be several inches in the mountains of AZ.  Here, sans the great U of AZ calcs for the whole storm period, will go with the same “seat-of-pants” estimates of the botttom and top amounts made a couple of days ago:  at least 0.4 inches (even if things don’t work out so great; low doesn’t dawdle so long).   But as much as 1.50 inches on the high end here in Catalina if it DOES dawdle as this model run from last night shows and we get nailed by recurring rain bands.  Best estimate, “therefore” he sez, is the average of the two, or about an inch.

It would seem some thunder now and then would also be in the mix, and BTW, we remind our reader that snow and rain mixed together is NOT SLEET, dammitall!  SLEET is frozen raindrops, ones that have frozen on the way down and usually requires two to three thousand feet of below-freezing air temperatures before that happens.  Also, they BOUNCE when they hit, are usually clear, and often have spikes where the water was trying to get out since they mostly freeze from the outside inward, and because water expands when it freezes, a spike or ejection of ice splinters results as freezing takes place.  Kind of neat really.    But its NOT rain and snow mixed together!  Sorry, getting into some “sleet rage” here; need to work on it; get it under control.  I just don’t want my reader to sound ignorant when rain and snow are mixed together, but rather, “precipitationally erudite.”

Yesterday’s clouds5:20 PM. Jet’s ‘n’ Cirrus. The very short contrails, formed by moisture and carbonaceous crap, oops, black stuff, in the exhaust, are short here because the jets are flying ABOVE the Cirrus.

5:42 PM. OK sunset.


The moon's been HUGE lately, enough where you can see quite a bit of detail.
The moon’s been HUGE lately, enough where you can see quite a bit of detail.

More rain ahead as month closes!

The End