Late bloomers and a dry day; but plentiful rains dead ahead

Here’s a brief reprise of yesterday in photos.  Expect a similar day today, late rising Cu over the Catalinas, isolated Cumulonimbus off on the horizon, probably NW-NE over the Mogollon Rim, and to the distant SE-S. None are expected to make it here.

12:33 PM. Small Cumulus finally begin appearing over Mt. Lemmon.
4:02 PM. Really haven’t done much, though some turrets poked up to the ice-forming level. Arrows show some ice falling out of an old, evaporating turret.
4:03 PM. Massive anvil appears over the horizon to the SE-S giving hope something could still happen.
5:52 PM. Getting closer!















7:16 PM. Rain complex stays to the S-SW, but provides a nice summer scene with occasional lightning.
7:37 PM. Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (one with an anvil) punctuates the sunset. Somebody got dumped on out there.








Don’t forget to go to the movies to re-live yesterday here, courtesy of our University of Arizona Wildcats.

The rain ahead

One of the great model forecasts of our time came out yesterday from the 12Z global data, and has been pretty much replicated in its results from the new data that came in yesterday at 00Z. These runs have had plentiful rains in SE AZ for just about every day after our little hot dry spell, and both of those US runs with all that rain ahead are supported by model runs by the Canadians using their brand of the Euro model. Here’s the US full run from last night, whilst the Canadian run can be found here.

What’s intriguing is that a tropical wave, sometimes called an “inverted trough” because its upside down compared to our winter troughs, is foretold to move into the State about the 4th of July.   An inverted trough would bring extra organization and clustering of Cumulonimbus complexes, which means bigger areas of rain, often accompanied by a large stratiform rain shield that produces hours of rain.  It is also true that these can be our most damaging storms.

OK, this big event is “out there”, and you know that this blog is going to jump on the wetter side of the model forecasts.  Still, its pretty darn exciting to think of days of scattered showers beginning in early July, and maybe a real drencher just ahead around th 4-5th.  The best part is that even if that doesn’t happen, we are embedded in a flow pattern that would keep up that a hopeful possibility of rain day after day, into mid-July.