Late, pretty arrival; winds top 50 mph. Are there hurricanes in our future? Dog picture in blog.

1) “Late” meaning you’ll have to slog through quite a few photos of your cloud day to get to the really neat ones… Of course, you can bypass all the verbiage and marvel here at the U of AZ time lapse. 2) Mod has drought-denting hurricane remnant moving into Arizona at the end of the month. Lotta rain seems to be in the pipeline before that, too, with an earlier TS remnant entering the western portion of the State this Thursday, Aug. 21st! This from the Enviro Can mod output from last night! How can things be better than this!

3) The note about a dog picture is a cheap attempt to attract new readers. See next to last photo.

10:56 AM. Late start, compared to recent days, for first shreds of Cu on the Catalinas. Not a great sign for rain.

2:26 PM. Hope begins to build with this very tall thin protrusion above the Catalinas and from the U of AZ forecasting expert, Mike, who foretells a good chance of evening storms in his daily take — 2:26 PM. Hope begins to build with this very tall, thin protrusion above the Catalinas and from the U of AZ forecasting expert, Mike, who foretells a good chance of evening storms in his daily take

3:44 PM. Thunder on the mountain! Actually, it had been thundering for maybe half an hour by this time. It died a few minutes later, no further Cumulus popped up, a discouraging scene.

5:54 PM. "Great White Hope" appears on the horizon to the ENE. But, with NO Cumulus over the Catalinas, will it make it past them? Seeing such a scene raises doubts. — 5:54 PM. The “Great White Hope” in the form of Cumulus congestus tops entering anvil Cirrus appears on the horizon to the ENE and upwind of Catalina/Sutherland Heights. But, with NO Cumulus over the Catalinas, will can this complex of storms make it past them? Seeing such a scene raises doubts.

6:44 PM. This majestic hopeful scene. Surely now it will get here. But, the warning sign of weakening coming farther west is in the collapsing turrets at the far left. Not good.

6:44 PM. A life-size version of the same incoming clouds. In using a wide angle lens, as in the prior shot, the impact of just how beautiful and majestic this scene was is lost. They just filled your view to the NE.

6:56 PM. Underlit base area, center left, shows where outflow winds are sending an updraft into those clouds. However, that bright spot (dead center) is not good, shows there’s a hole in these clouds, a weak spot. No doubt it will pass over my house! But that rainshaft and rainbow are magnificent. Lots of cloud to ground LTG back there.

7:00 PM. Rain (and rainbow) has reached the Charouleau Gap! Still, those bright spots are troubling, indicating that the updrafts are spotty. Also, it should have been time for the first strands of rain to begin falling from the “good base” on the left of the rain. Has the turret above it begun to collapse before reaching the ice-forming level, up around 20 kft?

7:02 PM. With the outlflow winds raging from the NW, doggie became very interested in this scene as well. — 7:02 PM. With the outlflow winds raging from the NW, with brief gusts to 50 mph, the lightning almost continuous, and the rain getting closer, little doggie became very interested in this dramatic scene as well.

7:11 PM. With drops starting to fall, this almost biblical scene passed overhead. Still, as dramatic is it was, those bright spots are indications of a chaotic updraft above the outflow winds. What you want to see, for a good dump, is a solid dark base. By now, too, the lightning was in-cloud, didn’t see any more cloud to ground strikes, another sign of a weakening storm.

The hurricanes ahead

It was interesting to see that after yesterday afternoon’s blog, mentioning the newly discovered California Niño, as told by Nature recently, and about hurricanes that might last longer heading this way due to the weak El Niño conditions combined, that the 5 AM AST WRF-GFS yesterday morning (I had not seen it yet) had a hurricane remnant plowing directly into the State of Arizona, denting drought with heavy widespread rains, no doubt with flooding. In case you don’t believe me again, here, as rendered by IPS MeteoStar, this fabulous sequence for the end of August:

Valid too far in the future to be reliable, but we can dream can't we? — Valid too far in the future to be reliable, but we can dream can’t we?

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.

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