Less data; but more filling

A “storm”, one with “rain,” has at last shown up in the numerical prognostics for late on Thanksgiving Weekend.  It appears for the first time on last night’s 11 PM AST model run.  At that time (11 PM AST) we have less global data to work with when the model crunches out its forecast, and so it is generally thought to be less reliable.  But, it has a storm for us….

But, a storm here helps fill dreams of a green desert washed of dust, and stimulates the thought of wildflower seeds springing to life for the spring to come.  So, to HECK with opinions on a 11 PM run having less skill!  Let us dream of rain and poppies!  Here it is below, from IPS Meteostar:

Valid on Saturday, November 25th, at 11 PM AST. As shown, rain would be imminent or underway with this upper level configuration. If it verified, might produce half an inch or so in Catalinaland.  That next trough would tend to follow in its path for a second rain a few days later.  This is so far out from now, we often call these kinds of depictions, “mythical.”  Take under advisement.  Also, this kind of depiction of a deep trough marching across old AZy wasn’t there on the prior run at 5 PM AST.  Going on a  hunch is all , that something will come through then.
From the NOAA spaghetti factory: Not a lot of support, either. Those blue lines (contours of the flow) should be bunched down in the SW if the forecast above, so far out in time, is going to have any reliability at all. It really doesn’t. Going on a hunch based on wishful thinking, like thinking Washington (former company team) was going to defeat Stanford last night….   🙁


Pretty Cirrus lately, often at multiple levels, as here:

12:13 PM yesterday. What’s a cloud-maven site without a cloud, at least one shot?  Can you tell that there are Cirrus clouds at different levels?  Notice crossing patterns, one clue.

The End