in southeastern Arizona/ Looks like the first chance for rain in sight from Catalina is on Friday, a minimal beginning, but a beginning.
Thereafter, rain appears somewhere in AZ in last night’s model run from that ONE green pixel of rain over the Catalinas Friday afternoon-evening, everyday for the next 10 days! Let the summer rain season begin! BTW, if you would like the latest official government update on the summer monsoon, go here. As you will see, there are no strong forcings that will help us figure out where it will be juicy or not. So, expect somewhere around normal, but hope for MORE.
Test your map skills and see if you can find that green (indicating rain) pixel, forecast to “occur” between 5 PM and 11 PM AST on Friday:
The entire wonderful sequence can be found at IPS Meteostar here.
From the Washington Huskies version of the WRF-GFS model, this panel for Friday afternoon at 5 PM AST (more detail on that first chance of rain in those colored regions below). Below is the rain expected in SE AZ between about 2 PM and 5 PM. Sweet. That whole sequence can be found here.