I think you should read this.
“Phase Space 3”, no, its not an expression from Star Trek, though it would sound pretty good if it was. Rather, its the location of an oscillation in tropical winds that goes around the world in 40 days as a rule, not 80, from west to east. Right now the MJO is in kind of a muddle, not much to it, dawdling around Indonesia. But it is forecast to strengthen next week, looping back around and heading into Phase Space 3!
Some folks have connected weather patterns elsewhere to the various “phase spaces” the MJO is in, people like Zhou et al (2011), as you will find at the end of the above MJO discussion.
What kind of patterns that are relevant here?
Well, they have found a degree of correlation, not great, that when the “MJO” (has a nice ring to it; could be a coffee brand I think), moves into phase space #3, it tends to be wet in the western US.
So, if the MJO is not bamboozling the Big Niño we have in some way, this could be quite the one-two punch.
However, they may NOT be additive as in a 1-2, to destroy any solid information in today’s blog.
Zhou et al, did not look at the combined effect of a Big Niño AND the MJO in Space #3.
So, we’ll just have to see what happens next week as January closes out. Storms, cold ones, still in mods for Catalina and AZ overall as that happens.
In the meantime, let’s look at some precip data, gathered by NOAA here. This will be good for you to look at, too.
Cal rain update
Honeydew, CA, up there near the King Range, now up to 26 inches for the month of January, though the “Sacramenta” Valley not filling up with water as practically foretold here a coupla weeks ago. Heck, that’s only happened once anyway, way back in 1862 (California flood–read about Stanford here), so maybe CMP was overcome with forecasting adrenalin.
Fire hose jet into CA with stupendous rains hasn’t materialized, but the darn thing keeps showing up now and then. What’s up with that? Not sure. Thought due to persistence in the mods, something stupendous would happen….eventually, and before January closed out.