Models converge; less is none

Oh, me.  I guess its great to be big enough to congratulate a people smarter than your people.  The Canadian model, a version of that used by the people of Europe, has seemingly won the battle of the Arizona rain question.  Almost no rain in Arizona is now predicted through the end of September in the last several runs of the USA! model, which now has the last of hurricane Meriam dying a quiet death off Baja, her moist remnants staying in Mexico, not getting here.  This was the “solution” the Canadian model had predicted for several days for the end of September in Arizona that made a prediction of rain here very dicey anyway if you read what I had been blabbing about.

BTW, along with abandoning our tropical rains, the USA WRF_GFS model has the “usual” heavy rains 10-15 days out.  I laughed out loud when I saw these new predicted rains in today’s run from 5 AM AST data.       I guess we can hope again.

Well, congratulations to my relatives in Canada for “winning” the battle of the models, but I will NEVER go there again!  I loved those now bogus rain maps for Arizona that the USA! model produced for several days anyway; SO much rain!  Going to save them, and mope around about what could have been because that’s who I am.

In the meantime, we had some nice cloud patterns yesterday morning, and I will grudgingly post those as though I am quite happy and feel normal after looking at the latest model runs:

6:29 AM.Probably Cirrocumulus is the best name for this though it is all ice here and the dappled pattern won’t last as the ice spreads out. A little patch of Altocumulus is on the left.
6:30 AM. Now this was interesting, a little patch of Altocumulus, tops about -10 C, maybe -11 C according to the TUS sounding, and there is some snow virga coming out on the right side. Cool.


10:07 AM. Gorgeous example of Altocumulus “floccus” (no or ragged bases), though “castellanus” could also be used since somewhat of a base is still present. You have to get your camera out quick because skinny isolated ones don’t last for more than a couple of minutes.  Check the next photo a few minutes later.


10:12 AM. Five minutes later. Told ya!


The End.