Models wetting it up for Catalina and SE Arizona

This is one of the best days in my life!  The NOAA NCEP computer model has looked at the new data that came in overnight from around the world and now, in calculating the new maps from that data,  it thinks we are going to have quite the series of storms here in SE AZ!  Our spring grasses and wildflowers might yet get help in time to save the blooms!

Take a look at these images from last night’s NCEP model run reproduced by IPS Meteostar here (0ne of the best weather providers on the web in my opinion).  Below are highlights from IPS Meteostar model reproductions, namely those half dozen “future maps” having rain in them for around here.  BTW, a weather convention is that precip is colored green.

There are no less than six storms predicted to occur over the next two weeks!  It doesn’t get any better than this in you live in a desert!

Of course, if you’re a real weather forecaster, you know that it is likely that none of the below will be accurate.   But the excitement is in that it MIGHT happen just as the computers are predicting.  It’s something like a Fantasy Baseball team you have assembled prior to the season and in your players you see all their potential maximized.  In essence, it is just like this with last night’s model run, every rainstorm you see here, together as a unit of six, is like a fantasy team combining to win the pennant.  It probably won’t happen quite. But, the excitement is in the air, until those models break your heart by taking all the rain away in the next few runs, as they sometimes do.

Here are some maps from last night’s wonderful run with brief notes:

1) Valid this Thursday, most likely just a close call.  Note tiny green area just north of Tucson.

 

 

 

2) Below, valid Saturday, the 19th. Rain moves up northward from a band in northern Mexico and on this map, has already passed over Tucson.

3) Below, valid Sunday the 20th. Major southern California storm eases into southern Arizona!

4)  Below, valid Wednesday the 23rd, another rain!

5) Below, valid  Friday, the 25th of Feb, a real dump Mr. Model thinks.

6)  Finally, valid on February 28th, still more!  And man do we need it!