Day started out as expected, but instead of Cu fluffing up into congestus and Cumulonimbus clouds yesterday as expected, a higher layer of Altocumulus (with ice plumes) filled in the sky indicative of “slab lifting” due to our incoming trough, and with the strengthening winds mixing things all up, the Cu went flat on us. So about three days in a row, the kind of clouds expected didn’t happen. First time this has happened since four days ago.
But, we did have Cumulonimbi in the area, those deeper clouds indicative of the cooling aloft that had occurred during the day, if you noticed the OCNL LTG to the NW-N after dark. Thought, too, for a moment around 8 PM a cell was erupting overhead as sparse large drops fell, always the melted remnant of graupel (soft hail) aloft indicating a Cumulus turret up there, but it didn’t mature into a full blown Cumulonimbus. So, only a trace of rain from all those many sprinkles yesterday afternoon beginning just after 2 PM through about 9 PM. Darn.
BTW, I must direct your attention to a great new weather site by local U of AZ forecasting expert, Mike. It has gorgeous graphics and will be a real contribution for weather-centric folk.
Mike joins “Bob” in doing some great, professional-style weather discussions for TUS and vicinity, not at all like the ones found here.
Should see some nice Cu today, though, as our upper puddle of cold air slips away from us. Early birds may have noticed some lingering Cumulonimbus tops to the NW-N at dawn. Probably won’t see any more of those except off in the distance to the N during the day.
The weather way ahead
Notice that the red lines are in Baja and this strongly suggests troughing (cooler than normal air aloft) in our region. Looks pretty Niño-ish. So, it would appear that we’ll continue to have an occasional blast of cooler days, rather than just a long series of clear, warm days.
Still looking for significant rain next week, between the 6th and 8th, but our best model from last evening’s (00Z, 5 PM AST) global data thinks that rain in AZ will mainly be to our north with little if anything here. However, I have rejected that analysis and am clinging to the thought that at least 0.25 inches will occur in Catalina next week during the aforementioned window. I recommend that you be kind of clingy, too.