Cumulus clouds, Definitions, Ice crystals, Lightning, Rainbows, Stratocumulus clouds, The weather ahead

Moving along; rain to fall in early March (a lot of it)

In fact, the chance of MEASURABLE rain in Catalina is at least 100%, maybe as high as 300%,  between 5 AM AST, Sunday, March 1st and 5 AM, AST, March 4th.  Namely,  its gonna happen.

Now, its not gonna rain that whole time, likely starting later in the day on the 1st. Pretty darn exciting to have a sure thing in the future!  Check out this 4-panel presentation of maps from Enviro Can, I really like them:

Valid for Monday, March 2nd. Heavy rains foretold in western AZ by this time. Likely will be here by this time, too, though THIS model thinks the rain is still to the west.
Valid for Monday, March 2nd. Heavy rains foretold in western AZ by this time. Likely will be here by this time, too, though THIS model thinks the rain is still to the west.

Perhaps going farther than one reasonably should, the likely minimum amount will be 0.33 inches (10% chance of less) and top amount, gee, this situation has a big top, 1.50 inches, due to this trough’s deep reach into the sub-tropics, meaning it could pulling extra wet air toward us if everything works out in the “best” possible scenario.  The best guess, between these two extremes is the average, or about 0.9 inches during our rainy spell.  Should keep the washes flowing, though this one being colder than January’s tropical rains, should pile up lots of snow on top of Ms. Lemmon, so

Moving ahead to yesterday……

A pretty nice 0.09 inches fell yesterday morning in The Heights.  “Nice”,  because some model runs a few days in advance of this had no rain as a dry cold front went by.

When did the cold front pass?

9 AM yesterday, marked by a freshet from the NW with gusts to maybe 20 mph, with a falling temperature.  Fell from 51 F to 42.x F by mid-morning, snow down to about 5,000 feet on Samaniego Ridge, too, though it melted almost immediately.

A push of wind like that virtually always builds a cloud above it, and yesterday was no exception.  Here’ the cloud associated with that “freshet”:

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8:31 AM. Wind shift line cloud shows up NW-NE of Catalina. Get ready!
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8:32 AM. Mini-rainbow appeared for just a moment.
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8:34 AM. Tiny holes in clouds produce pretty highlights on Eagle Crest as the windshift line cloud approaches.
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8:34 AM. Ditto above.
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9:03 AM. Windshift and line cloud pass over Sutherland Heights. Starting to rain here, though very little.
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9:03 AM. Close up of the bottom of the windshift line cloud.
12:39 PM Post frontal passage quiet time with flattened clouds.
12:39 PM Post frontal passage quiet time with flattened clouds.
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1:28 PM/ Clouds swell up, first ice seen. Can you find it?  More to north at this time.
2:24 PM. Lots of pretty cloud "streets", Cumulus clouds aligned in a line. Here's a common one that comes off the Tortolita Mountains on Cumulus formation days.
2:24 PM. Lots of pretty cloud “streets”, Cumulus clouds aligned in a line. Here’s a common one coming at you,  one that comes off the Tortolita Mountains on Cumulus formation days with a westerly wind in the boundary layer (the layer between the ground and the tops of these clouds).
3:19 PM. Walkin' dogs, ice overhead in that SAME cloud street coming at me. Uh-oh.
3:19 PM. Walkin’ dogs now, but spotted trace of ice overhead in that SAME cloud street coming at me from the Tortolitas.    Uh-oh.  Do you see the trace of ice up there?
3:21 PM. Few raindrops beginning to fall. Can you detect that bit of a rain haze on the left of this photo, out toward the Torts?
3:21 PM. Few raindrops beginning to fall. Can you detect that bit of a rain haze on the left of center in this photo, out toward the Torts?  Very hard to see, but there was an nearly invisible “shaft.”
3:33 PM. Tiny snow shaft hangs from this same cloud line as it began to shift to the south and east. Can you find it?
3:33 PM. Tiny snow shaft hangs from this same cloud line as it began to shift to the south and east. Can you find it?

Of course, the best part of days like yesterday is the play of the light and shadows on our mountains:

5:19 PM.
5:19 PM.
5:58 PM. Stratocumulus clouds above the Charouleau Gap.
5:58 PM. Stratocumulus clouds above the Charouleau Gap.

 

The End.