0.28 inches here in this part of Catalina, 0.31 inches at the bridge and Golder Ranch Dr., half mile away, 0.29 inches at Sutherland Heights. Coulda been more. Pima County ALERT gage reports here FYI. Most there, 0.47 inches, Catalina foothills, compatible with the southerly flow; clouds bank up more on that side of the Cat Mountains when the flow is mostly southerly. U of AZ rain network, here.
OK, I shouldn’t be the storm grinch… It was great to get something when the models were often oscillating between zeroes and rain out a week or so from yesterday.
December is a benchmark for us: now with 2.11 inches of rain, its the first month of this calendar year with above normal rain outside of July and August. All of this has fallen since we fell into the “trough bowl” in mid-December.
The onset of rain here, that is the first drops, did not fall until about 6 PM, EXACTLY as the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster model run said! It doesn’t get better than that. The amount, too, was exactly that predicted, in the range of 0.10 to 0.50. Think I’ll quit. Yesterday at this time, me, myself and I were anticipating around half an inch, with a 0.20 inches as lower limit, one we just climbed over; 0.80 inches upper limit . Also, thought the first drops to fall, in our little attempt to “Beat the Model” would occur before 5 PM AST.
The transitioning sky yesterday afternoon
Not much seemed to be happened yesterday as the Altostratus clouds thickened and thinned with the sun occasionally popping out strongly enough to produce shadows.
But, as a cloud-centric person, the only variety of human reading this blog, you may have noticed, even been awestruck by the drastic change that occurred between about 2:30 PM and 3:30 PM. Started getting hopeful about some drops getting down in Catalina before 5 PM. Here’s what happened, all due to a surge of moist air that started to come in below the height of the Altostratus in mid-afternoon, and that surge being associated with the approaching upper level trough. First, two “before” pictures of a “stagnant” sky:
The weather ahead
Grim, in a word now. “Trough Bowl” exiting right (east) for an extended period of time, so we’re more or less away from the storm track for awhile. Gradual warming trend, of course, along with that.
HOWEVER, a fantasy storm has shown up, if you’re a fantasy weather forecasting league person, this one will get you a LOT of points. Check this forecast out from the WRF-GFS 00 Z (5 PM AST) global data (rendered by IPS MeteoStar). Summary? Juicy.
But, of course, we know when to laugh at progs like this. Go to the ensembles of spaghetti and see if there is ANY veracity to a big trough in the upper levels, one that would HAVE to accompany a rain map like this. “These are their stories”, to quote a TEEVEE line: