Not likely but a wonderful map

Last evening’s model1 run based on global data from 5 PM AST yesterday, gave us this, the remnant of a tropical storm barging into Arizona on November 3rd, just after our rainless October closes out:

Valid at 5 PM AST, November 3rd two weeks from today.














As an expert “spaghetti” decipherer, you can easily see from the map below that there’s not much chance of this happening though its not completely impossible. Too much “noise” in the pattern around here (lines aren’t bunched like they are off Japan and in the western Pacific).   I just posted the map above because its the first one in SO LONG that had any Arizona rain on it, that green and blue stuff on the map above.

Valid at 5 PM November 2nd, the day before the map above, but close enough.
Valid at 5 PM November 2nd, the day before the map above, but close enough.


















Who knows, maybe there’ll be a cloud over us one day again, too.

Of note… unusually cold air for October is poised to rush into the eastern and central US in several waves during the next two weeks; those events have a much higher probability of occurring according our venerable NOAA plots of spaghetti like the one above.  Likely will see cold air refugees beginning to bail to Arizona in their droves from eastern units of the country as October low temperature records fall.

Its great to be where other people want to be.

The End.


1Namely, the Global Forecast System-Weather Research and Forecasting (GFS-WRF) model, pretty much our best.

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.