November looks to finish out as a very dry month

Kind a bored looking at the same model runs for 10-15 days ahead now, ones that close out November with no rain even nearby for Catalina.  Doesn’t seem to be even ANY HOPE for rain here, that is, some bizarre model outlier forecast with rain, as we saw a few days ago.  But then, I had not had any coffee yet…

Thought I would drink some coffee to see if I’ve missed anything in these latest computer model images. I’d kind of forgotten what Consumer Reports Health Letter had warned about when you’re bored and trying to do stuff.  Talked about the effects of caffeine on boredom.  I reprise a portion of that CR note here, in case you, too, are looking at repetitious model outputs with no rain in them.  Note the part in in this note below about “repetitious images” and “infrequent changes in patterns on a screen”;  yep, that’s what we’re dealing with here in these model runs now.













OK, finished second cup, caffeinated coffee, BTW, now going back to look at those model forecast maps to see if I missed anything, subtle or otherwise…. You, too, can look at the 5 PM AST model loop here (from IPS Meteostar), but drink some coffee first.

Prepare to be “re-bored” as I have just been.

Not even the NOAA NCEP’s “ensembles of spaghetti” offer hope;  no “outlier” model forecasts with Catalina rain in them anymore (for now, anyway).   Bunched blue lines, demarcating jet stream, stay to the north.

But, paraphrasing Scarlet O’Hara, “6 h from now, there is another model run…”

Yesterday’s clouds

Had some great Cirrus spissatus and other varieties/species of Cirrus overspread the sky yesterday, eventually thickening into Altostratus translucidus (sun’s position still visible).  Here are a couple of shots, including a sunsetter where you can see just that bit of virga hanging down.

1:19 PM. Cirrus clouds began overspreading sky from the southwest (direction that photo was taken toward).
2:16 PM. Cirrus spissatus (the only Cirrus cloud that can have shading) encroaches from the southwest.
4:29 PM. The Cirrus clouds have thickened in places, usually downward, to large patches of Altostratus translucidus (thin enough so that the sun’s position is still visible).  Its also possible here that the Altostratus clouds were below a higher layer of Cirrostratus.
5:26 PM. Under lit Altostratus clouds with likely a separate higher layer of Cirrostratus.

Today’s clouds?

Your call: ________________________________________________________________

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.