Threat! (omitted portion of the headline above)
Check this out:
You got yer ridgy flow on the top (“top” meaning, “Canada”, around where that yellow line humps toward the north) and yer broadly cyclonic flow on the bottom (“bottom” meaning, “Baja Cal and Mexico”) that is, across the whole western part of North America. This indicates that we will have a configuration that suggests a “split flow” where part of the jet stream and a trough is forced into the Southwest. Models are showing a big trough and cutoff that brings substantial rains to Arizona!
Of course, model forecasts are pretty dicey at this range, more than 10 days, and so that’s why I am reporting it fully here with great excitement! That’s what we do here, go over the edge, not just up to it.
And, for that slight amount of additional credibility, the “WRF-GFS” has been spitting out big storms for Arizona over the past several runs during this late October period. See Arizona rain below from this rendering from IPS MeteoStar:
Since I ran out of anything more to say, I will post a second version of this same map as a public service for international readers who are clueless about states in the USA:
Below, the upper level configuration that goes with the pattern above:
So, there are some questions about the magnitude of this event, will it be a spring wildflower energizer with a major rain, or a just a breezy spell with a dry cold front going by? I’m on the side that a good soaking rain will fall sometime in those last few days of October.
No clouds, so no point in going farther….