“Oh, what a beautiful morning”; and day its going to be

1) I like to refer to songs about weather, though the musical references I’ve used are somewhat dated, as here, a song from 19th Century I think.   BTW, tapping on the link above, you’ll see a guy riding a horse AND singing at the same time because he’s so happy, so it really fits the big western life we’re all leading here in old Arizony in the wintertime and seemed apropos.  I wouldn’t recommend singing AND riding at the same time, however, unless you know you’re horse reel good.  Might get spooked if it was you or me singing and not the cowboy, Gordy MacRae1.

BTW#2, if you watch that entire song link above, you’ll see whole crowds of people getting carried away with the State of OK at the end of it.  But…you’ll also notice in that scene that there is a MOUNTAIN on the distant horizon in the background.   I don’t think they were in Oklahoma for that song!  So, maybe they didn’t really like Oklahoma as much as they claim in song….   Now, where was I?

Man, the clouds are going to be spectacular today, zipping along like a dragster on nitro!  Expecting some real great lenticular clouds, those hover ones, downstream of the Cat Mountains, too.  Lots of wind, as well, to add to the drama with a Big _Cold Front (B_CF) getting closer during the day,  then passing us during the evening-overnight with some rain by morning.  Likely to be a 10-20 degree F drop in temperature within an hour or less, as this real “bad boy” cold front and wind shift go by.  Ely, NV saw a 56 degree drop in temperatures in 24h.  We Need more rain; always.  Cold? Not so sure about that.  All in all, a “beautiful” day2 coming up.

How much rain here in old Catalina?

We’re on the edge of the jet stream up there, and you know what that means, on the edge of the precip, too.  So, if you’re telling your friends how much rain you expect, and as a CMJ, they will expect you to comment on it,  you’d best not go overboard and say, “a half an inch between tonight and Friday morning”; play it down some.

On the plus side, this is a storm type (flow pattern type, more westerly up there) that we Catalinans get MORE rain than surrounding areas, other than the mountains.  So, on the edge means a low rain prediction; but the flow pattern suggests pushing a little on the greatest amount possible for an edge storm.  Here’s the range I would tell you to say to neighbors:

Bottom (since it might miss), 0.08 inches (the “8” for faux accuracy); top, 0.50 inches (yep, has a high potential due to the storm type; that is, the angle of the winds impinging overhead on our mountains).  Average of these guesses, which likely is the more accurate guess-amount, 0.26 inches.

Later we will compare the U of AZ supermicro Beowulf Cluster model prediction, one that takes our best model’s overall prediction for Arizona,  the one WRF-GFS, and then breaks it down into our local areas better, like here and on the Catalina Mountains, because it uses much more detailed terrain. (Not available yet here at 4:45 AM–to Hell with it then!)  ((Still not available as of 6:24 AM.  It is finished..publishing now.))

There’s another cold blast on the heels of this one.   Hits on the 8th.  Poor TUS marathoners…    ‘Nuf said.

 The weather way ahead

2) With the upcoming storm and cold well in hand, that is, well described by our excited met men and women, both at the NWS and on TEEVEE,  where in the latter case they make a LOT of money, really, its incredible how much (well, maybe not in TUS, but LA?  Oh, my)  Let’s see, where was I?  Oh, yeah,   I thought I would look WAY ahead, two weeks, which in weather model terms is like an astrologer looking through a telescope at the giant star, Betelgeus, its that far away in model prediction terms.

Still,  I REALLY think you need to see this forecast even though its so far away because its pretty giant, too, in weather terms.  If you’re too lazy to click on “this”, I have gifted you with the highlights below, highlights that might be the best forecast maps I have ever seen (again).  Yes, to quote the song, “Everything’s (weather-wise)  going my way.” ( “My way”? To Catalina, Arizona.)

Drum roll……







Well, there they are.  I hope you’re happy now.  Its quite an orgasmic sequence from a weather standpoint.

Why?  There’s about THIRTY-SIX hours of rain in our area are foretold from these maps, 14-15 days from now!  That last one has heavy rain throughout Arizona!  BTW, I’ve posted them in sizes that are proportional to their credibility, thumbnails.

Now, since I’ve been learning you up on spaghetti, I’ll let you decide whether its a Big_Outlier (BfO).  Take a look here and at where the”blue” lines are.  They would have to be clustering down around Rocky Point-Puerto Penasco for this forecast to have any serious credibility.

Yesterday’s clouds

Cirrus ones.  As always with our deep blue skies now days, so pretty up there.  A few shots:

7:32 AM.  Bunches of Cirrus spissatus.
7:32 AM. Bunches of Cirrus spissatus.


8:01 AM.  The ever-present, rarely seen Cirrus castellanus (bubble Cirrus).
8:01 AM. The ever-present, rarely seen Cirrus castellanus (bubble Cirrus lower center).














8:02 AM.  Cirrus fibratus (long, more or less straight trails, at least from this overhead view).
8:02 AM. Cirrus fibratus (long, more or less straight trails, at least from this overhead view).




























5:26 PM.  Subtle color in Cirrus and distant Altostratus layer (deep ice cloud).
5:26 PM. Subtle sunset color in Cirrus and in a distant Altostratus layer (deep ice cloud).




1Not wearing a helmut, either, which is also a bad example besides singing while riding a horse.

2Words can mean different things to different people, and here, “beautiful”, as in the title, may not be the “beautiful” day you were expecting to be described.