Rain ahoy!

Just on the horizon.  You were probably worried when you got up at 2:30 AM and saw only a big moon and no clouds.  “Where’s the rain?”, you wondered.   “She’ll be coming around the mountains when she comes” , to quote the lyrics from that old western song about Clementine (the Tortolitas and those mountains SW of us, in this case) in just an hour or so (its 4:30 AM now), certainly before daylight it should be dark and showery.  Yay!  Might get a quarter of an inch or so, which would be great!   Check this radar-satellite imagery out from IPS Meteostar for approaching cloud and precip details.

Mods continue to show a couple of more rain events in the days ahead with some sunny, cool breaks, biggest one on the 13th.  Hope these materialize into monsters, because as many of you know (“many”, hahaha, exaggerating readership again;  actually it should be, “as both of you know”)  we are in a La Nina oceanographic regime.    A La Nina regime is usually thought of as a “storm deflector” for the SW.  However, its magical powers are most pronounced in the LATE winter and spring, so we got to get us all the rain and mountain snowpacks we can NOW to avoid a really droughty year!  However, even the “best” La Nina’s  don’t positively mean this; the correlation coefficient between droughts here and a La Nina is not 1.00, that is perfectly correlated.

As we know, in semi-arid climates, too, it only takes a few good storms to make a good year, and those can slip in during La Nina regimes anyway.  Fingers crossed for mammoth rain and snowstorms this month.

The End

 

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.