Finally, the dark tunnel of pleasant, dry weather may be coming to an end, I am happy to say. The WRF-GOOFUS model longer range output has been showing RAIN in southern Arizona for two or three runs out around the 7th to 14th of February. Of course, those who follow this blog know that RAIN predicted in southern Arizona that far away is like the square root of -1. It doesn’t really exist; its imaginary. Still, it COULD happen, and you get a little more confidence when it shows up in more than one model run. The USA! WRF-GFS model is really very good out to about five-seven days, but gets “goofus” after that, you almost always can’t rely on what it says with rare exceptions. But, that having been said, remember that our models are still a lot better than economic forecasting models. Think of the unforeseen “black” stock market days that come up! Q. E. D. They don’t know what the HELL they are doing over there. Just kidding.
Below, some happy thoughts should accrue from viewing the images below if not already in place due to coffee. Think of flowers. And, if you’re like me, you’re happier overall and feel better about yourself thinking about a future rain in a desert region. Below, what the WRF-GOOFUS model thinks February 12th will look like, based on thinking done on last evening’s (5 PM AST) global data. This is so good I have reproduced TWO renderings from IPS Meteostar for that day. It can hardly get ‘”greener” (show more precip) in the entire Southwest than what this storm is supposed to do on February 12th, and we even see some dark “green” (heavier rain), turning into blue (even heavier rain) in southern Arizona in this sequence. Streams would likely run in places in southern AZ with this overall scenario. Its a great thought!
BTW, the later model run, just six hours after this one (based on 11 PM AST data, but whose awake then to take good obs and there aren’t that many anyway?) took a lot of this rain away and so I didn’t want to show it because its who I am. (hahahaha, sort of)
On a more mundane level, another fabulous AZ sunset last evening caused by…..what kind of clouds am I? Moslty Altostratus (really thick all or mostly ice clouds) and Altocumulus (mostly droplet clouds far horizon and very thin). See far below.