Rain, snow to stay in Arctic; not arrive in Catalina after all

“Can’t you see, I’m on a losing streak”  Rolling Stones1, 196x,  in “I Can’t Get No Satisfaction”, a “PG” for radio tune from those days.

Well, it seems we “can’t get no satisfaction”, either, when it comes to rain

Being on a “losing streak” has been CMP’s fate as well as far as forecasting goes.   A few weeks ago, right here on this blog is was reported that CMP was “on record” that November would end with a flourish of rain that would boost totals “to above average.”  That statement has now been excised from that earlier blog; there is no longer ANY “record” that I said anything like that.

November ended up with 0.70 inches, whilst average is 0.96 inches.

Then, in a wild one, it was suggested strongly a ten or so days ago  here that snow and cold would make the Catalina snowbirds feel right at home,  the one they left to avoid snow and cold.

Well, that’s not gonna happen, either.

On the good side of things, distracting the reader  from the many erroneous forecasts found here,  CMP’s former employer’s fubball team, the University of Washington Huskies, are moving on to the Final Four of Division I fubball after bonking Boulder Buffaloes 41-10!  This  means a gigantic media paycheck for the U-Dub!  As you likely know, Big Fubball supports all the little sports that can’t support themselves with revenue, like softball, cross country, volleyball, and the like, so many of those that come under Title IX.  So, its a good thing for everyone, but in particular, especially women’s sports,  when you’re university gets a big media paycheck, one that’s spread around the whole conference!

Now, where was I?  Oh, yeah….bad forecasting.

The cold air, and any sign of precip will remain far to the north of southern Arizona.   Spaghetti really let me down in that one, or my interpretation thereof.  Not really my fault at all, when you get right down to it…

The current low spinning over southern AZ and northern Mexico was formerly  a situation where precip was going to fall here according to computer models.  Now, as our “losing streak” for storms continues, its going to end up as a “high, dry one” for us.  Parts of Mexico, NM and points east will get generous rains and snow, so we can be happy for them, I guess.

On to clouds, for what its worth.  There were some nice scenes again yesterday.

8:36 AM. Nice line of Cirrocumulus I would call it, some cirriform clouds in the background, maybe Cirrostratus fibratus (has lines, fibers in it).


9:57 AM.
9:57 AM.  Action shot.  This photo gives the feeling of clouds streaming at you, which they were; Altocumulus upper center, maybe Cirrostratus above it, and to the left and right horizon.
1:16 PM. Things started to look promising as distant light rain showers broke out to the southwest. Perhaps they would work their way into Catalina. Nope.
1:19 PM. The sun’s disk as seen through a cloud that is completely or almost completely comprised of droplets, hold the ice. Ice particles, if in any degree of concentration, caused the sun’s disk to blur, you would never be able to make out the edges due to diffraction of light by those larger particles. Droplets in clouds are mostly less than 20 microns in diameter, whilst ice particles are generally larger than a few hundred microns to millimeter sizes. Here, you could have told your tell your friends, if you have any, that this cloud is all or almost all comprised of droplets, probably no ice at all.  Some kind of bird is passing off the frame of this photo, maybe a seagull.
3:54 PM.
3:54 PM.  The day ended in disappointment, a word used a lot these days as those minimal showers rotated westward and stayed far to the south.


Now, there’s nothing in sight in the way of precip for southern AZ, not even an outlier model forecasts of some fantasy storm to dream about in the next two weeks.  Oh, well, we can enjoy some nice sun and feel the warmth that sun brings


1This is a really old R&B, rock band led by Mick Jagger.   Mick will be 100 years old I think next year, and so they’ve cut back on touring; only 47 shows are planned in the US.

2 thoughts on “Rain, snow to stay in Arctic; not arrive in Catalina after all”

  1. Hi Art: excitement is building up here: We could see our first snow of the season on Monday (or even Sunday night). After that it remains cool and we’ll see some sunshine – for a change! My total for November 2016 was a soggy 10.20 inches. YUK!

  2. Yeow! Ten inches, sounds pretty bad or “interesting” depending on your viewpoint. Speaking of the wet fall up thataway (Pac NW) one site near Mt. St. Helen’s had 51 inches of rain just in October!

    Have fun in the snow, a rare and special treat in SEA as well.

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