Rain to fall in Catalina! (as shown in this latest model run shown below)

Finally found some rain for you.  Took awhile.  Came from the 11 PM AST global data from last night using the WRF-GFS model, our best.  The rain falls around the 19th,  “only” 11 days from now and during the “sweet spot” for southern California rain in mid-November, 10-20th, which gives it a few more percent of credibility than it otherwise would have.

BTW, there is virtually no support for this pattern from the NOAA spaghetti factory.  So, all of the discussion below about an upcoming rain in Catalina might erroneous, based on a personal hunch about an outlier model run being the correct “solution”,  one based on experience, and to HELL with spaghetti1, a study in forecasting subjectivity, etc.

Got that Bay Area rain timing info originally from C. Donald Ahrens,  the big author of Meteorology Today and Essentials of Meteorology, both of which have about 400 editions out by now, while he and I were at San Jose State College University.

Don, a grad student then,  and me, and undergrad,  worked and sang together to Top 40 songs radiating from  KGO-FM 2,3  in a little corrugated metal building there by the San Jose State football stadium back in the late 60s, and it was somewhere between songs that he told me about his findings.

Don had done a rain frequency study for the Bay Area for a local insurance company and it turned out that he found that it was somewhat more likely to rain in the middle of November than earlier or later in the month.  That rain fell more more often than earlier was no surprise, but more often than later in the month was.  Later I found that it was also true for southern California.

Sometimes oddities like these are referred to by big professors of weather,  like Reid Bryson at the U of Wisconsin Badgers, as “singularities”, a weather pattern that tends to recur year after year around the same time of the year, like the so-called “January thaw” in the East which I don’t think happened last year.

So, ever since Don told me about the mid-November peak of rain in the central and southern parts of Cal,  I have looked for it year after year and it seems to turn out quite often,  and this November seems to be no exception, though the models were resisting this pattern for quite awhile before “giving in.”

Well, anyway where was I?  It seems that the southern California rain is now being foretold for around 18th of November, and a day or so later it trudges on into Arizona.  From IPS MeteoStar, a Sutron Company, whatever that is, this wonderful map:

Valid the night of November 19th-20th.  Colored regions denote those areas where the model thinks it has precipitated during the PRIOR 12 h.  So, storm has arrived here during the day on the 19th.
Valid the night of November 19th-20th. Colored regions denote those areas where the model thinks it has precipitated during the PRIOR 12 h. So, storm has arrived here during the day on the 19th.

Some clouds

we have known over the past few weeks while CM was re-hydrating mentally:

Some ice for you on a warm fall day.
DSC_0109
Some ice for you on a warm fall day (virga from Altocumulus castellanus and or floccus)
DSC_0128
Pretty iridescence (or irisation) in a Cirrocumulus cloud.
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Pretty sunset, Altocumulus featured.
The End

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11The non-supportive spaghetti plot from the 00 Z (5 PM model run from last evening):

Valid at 5 PM AST Wednesday, November 19th.  Arizona is in a low amplitude ridge, according to most of the "members" of the repeat model runs with itty-bitty errors deliberately put into them.  I have rejected this plot and look for validation of this action around the 19th of November.   You will not hear about it further if I am erroneous in this action!
Valid at 5 PM AST Wednesday, November 19th. Arizona is in a low amplitude ridge, according to most of the “members” of the repeat model runs with itty-bitty errors deliberately put into them. I have rejected this plot and look for validation of this action around the 19th of November. You will not hear about it further if I am erroneous in this action!

2An odd, almost mysterious Frisco FM radio station with no commercials featuring,  “Brother John.”  We’d sing along to the Four Seasons, The Five Americans’, “Western Union” (about telegraph, the way people used to communicate before the Internet).

3 We both had quite a talent for falsetto it seemed at the time.