Rains moving closer to Catalina; whopper LA rain ahead

It doesn’t get any better than this if you need rain and want 10 inches:

Valid at 5 PM AST, Friday, February 28th.  Arrow points to massive sweep of sub-tropical air into southern Cal, the whole SW really.
Valid at 5 PM AST, Friday, February 28th. Arrow (upper right panel) points to massive sweep of sub-tropical air into southern Cal, the whole SW really.  This from the Canadian Global Environmental Model (GEM) based on last evening’s data.

Actually, 10 inches in a day is not so unusual in the mountains of southern California, which is something that’s going to happen if this model output verifies this weekend. Also, the storm takes a couple of days to go through, and so mountain totals of 10-20 inches are likely in the favored locations. Coastal areas would likely see 2-6 inches I think now with this configuration.

Twenty four hour totals of more than 25 inches of RAIN were observed in the southern California mountains in January 1943, and again in January 1969, to put a forecast of “just” 10 inches in one day in perspective.

Thinking about driving over there, to say, Hoegee’s Camp in the San Gabriel Mountains, where they once got 26 inches in a day (back in ’43).  Would really like to see what heavy rain looks like in this basher;  rocks coming down onto highways, windy, giant waves along the coast,  a real weather hullaballoo.   Maybe we should organize a storm tourism trip?  Think of all the happy people we’d see, too, in this muttin’ bustin’ drought bustin’ bustin’ bustin’ bronc bustin’ storm, to kind of get in the rodeo frame of mind here to emphasize to the people of Tucson just how rough it will be on the city folk of southern Cal.

The good news here is that predicted rains have been increasing here in Catalina and throughout Arizona in the models as well.  Maybe it won’t be too late for our spring greening to green up a little more.  An inch is now possible here on the top end, minimum likely to be as much as a quarter of an inch (even if mods really off) ending on the 3rd.

Still looking at a close call, maybe some sprinkles before that from the first slug of rain that hits Cal, on Thursday, the 27th of Feb. Much of Arizona should get something from that first rain intrusion.

What a great cloud day it was yesterday! Fabulous.

Here are a few cloud shots:

Can you name them?DSC_0244DSC_0254







Today?  Sat imagery makes it look like our middle clouds will be thick enough to produce isolated drops.  Be sure to log any that you see.

The End.