The cloud drought has been a little depressing here in Catalina, Arizona, particularly in view of repeated computer model runs that showed that the next 15 days do not even shown rain getting close to us.
But today, oh my, today’s run. This is a model run for the ages! Take a look at these, part of a 15 day loop of the forecasted positions highs, lows, and rain areas (represented by color blobs) found at IPS Meteostar:
So what does it mean when, day after day, the computer models show no rain for two weeks ahead in updated runs day after day, and then, like someone you know having a different personality than they used to the next time you see them, all this rain appears in Arizona?
Its probably WRONG.
One might guess right off that when such a drastic change is shown (no hint of rain to deluges) that this might be an outlier model run. One could almost bet that in the computer model’s take on tonight’s data (those runs available late tonight and tomorrow morning, that this widespread rain will be greatly reduced or even eliminated. Darn it, but this must be considered.
Still, its so fantastic to FINALLY see some rain in Arizona being predicted! And its something to keep an eye on. Note, too, that all the rain is associated with a tropical storm that moves across Baja California into Arizona. But, we have seen that predicted before this fall, too, and it didn’t happen.
So, must temper excitement, but at least there’s something to hope for.