Here it is. You may need an optical enhancement tool to see the radar echo speck nearest Catalina, and its not the one nearest the arrowhead below, but continue in that direction:
![Ann 201502230700_SWR2](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Ann-201502230700_SWR2.gif)
You can also check on all the rain that fell overnight in the region here, courtesy of Pima County ALERT rain gauges. BTW, they aren’t capable of reporting traces, so if you see bunches of zeroes, it doesn’t mean some drops didn’t fall somewhere in the network.
Non-verification of this rain can also be found via our fine TUS NWS “storm total” view, 10:30 PM to 4:30 AM this morning:
![Regional radar-derived storm total from "rainy cloud blob."](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Ann-Magnified-NWS-storm-total-Feb-22-23.jpg)
In the meantime, all those rainy cloud blobs to our NW right now (first image) look like they will be able to just make it to Catalinaland after all.
In our last chapter, it looked like the strong cold front would move through tomorrow as just a dry cold one, but now the chances of having a little rain (a wet cold one) have been zooming up. The models have readjusted their thinking and now that critical ingredient, the core of the jet stream (at 500 mb) passing over us ahead of the trough core itself is being predicted.
And with that configuration as the front goes by Catalina, and believe me you’ll know by the 10-15 degree temperature drop, a tiny amount of rain might fall. Also, look for a pronounced lowering of cloud bases to the W-N of Catalina as it gets close, something in the way of an “arcus cloud”, marking the leading edge of the windshift to the N. Could be nice and dramatic looking tomorrow. Those cloud base lowerings are pretty common with fronts here.
How much rain?
Oh, possibilities range between 0 (a complete bust is still possible) to only about 0.25 inches, tops in the “best” of circumstances. But, this keyboard would like to see ANYTHING measurable; that would bring happiness.
There are some more rain blobs showing up in regular intervals in the days ahead for you to think about, as rendered by IPS MeteoStar. Arrows have been added to show you where you are, if you are in SE Arizona:
![Valid tomorrow morning at 11 AM AST. Colored areas denote regions where the model has calculated precipitation during the preceding 6 h.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Ann-2015022300_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_042.gif)
In the storm below, which is pretty much going to happen now, the range of amounts as seen from here, at least 0.15 inches, top, 0.50 inches, best guess, therefore, 0.33 inches (from averaging the two.)
![Val at 11 PM, March 1st. Colored areas are those in which the model has calculated that precip has fallen during the prior 6 h.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Ann-2015022300_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_174.gif)
There’s great uncertainly in whether this last storm will actually occur, so range of amounts are zero to 1 inch. :} See reasons for uncertainty below, besides being too far in advance or our models to be reliable anyway.
![Ann 2015022300_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_264](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Ann-2015022300_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_264.gif)
While a significant storm on the 1st is virtually assured according to spaghetti, this last major event in the panel above is doubtful. See below, in another lesson on consuming weather spaghetti:
![Ensemble spaghetti valid for the same time as the panel above, 5 PM AST Friday, March 5th. Not much support for a storm, low confidence is indicated by the LACK of bunching red and blue lines, unlike those off the East Coast, and over there east of Asia.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Ann-spag_f264_nhbg-1.gif)
Yesterday’s fine clouds
![7:10 AM. A couple of shafts of big virga. Likely a drop or two reached the ground.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_3051-1024x682.jpg)
![7:41 AM. Nice stack of lenticular pancakes in the lee of the Catalinas.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_3059-1024x682.jpg)
![8:05 AM. Natural virga approaches Catalina. Looked for a drop as it went over, but saw none.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_3062-1024x682.jpg)
![DSC_3071](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_3071-1024x682.jpg)
![DSC_3077](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_3077-1024x682.jpg)
![DSC_3097](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_3097-1024x682.jpg)
![DSC_0008](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_0008-1024x682.jpg)
![2:46 PM. Altocumulus opacus clouds continue to fill in, darken.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_0011-2-1024x682.jpg)
![5:40 PM. Muliple layers of clouds stream ahead of sprinkle producing cloud blob just upwind at this time.](https://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/DSC_3136-1024x682.jpg)
The End, though I COULD go on and on and on, and then on some more. Its who I am….