Three storms in the model “fountain”; which one will the model keep?

Who can forget the Four Aces?

Well, fountains spray water, and storms spray water (and snow) on the ground, so quite an unexpected confluence in descriptions, comparing fountains and storms.

That’s right, three storms are shown in the model run from last night.  They been kind of coming and going, the model generally clueless about what’s really going to happen here, especially with California gully washing rains from the lower latitudes, that then affect Arizona.

However, they’re BACK,   those gully washing rains in southern Cal, beginning around the 6-7th of Jan.  They used to be exceptionally ferocious and floody in the WRF-GFS and came in on Rose Bowl day, that day when we were all dreaming of Ducks floating around in Pasadena.  California Dreamin’, as it turned out.    The floods now showing up would only be ordinary ones, at least to start.

But, “hey.” enough said about California!  What about us?

A little snow overnight or the following morning after the day after Christmas.  That would be the 26th.   Precip amounts have to be light, since the trajectory of this cold storm is completely over land, but then that helps keep it cold, though I am not in favor of cold.

Amounts, again;  Since its marginal to begin with; 0 to 0.25 inches max in melted snow water, if it snows.

Then what?

Next, on New Year’s Eve, the model, as rendered by IPS MeteoStar, erupted with this Arizona “fountain” number 2:

Valid at 5 AM AST.  Jet core is already south of us, brown and reddish area, so it on the verge of raining here at that time.
Valid at 5 AM AST. Jet core is already south of us, brown and reddish area, so it on the verge of raining here at that time.

But, as you know, when a low is predicted to be by itself, as in this case, the prediction is “iffy”.   But, lows like this one, should it verify, bring the longest duration of rains and snows to Arizona, i. e,. are fabulous drought-denting storms because they move very slowly when out of the main flow.  In fact this one would take more than 24 h to go by!  You’d be looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a half inch to an inch of precip here in the Catalina area.

Below, “fountain” number 3 “in preparation” as we say about our manuscripts, sometimes ones that never materialize in a journal, as it is with some of these storms the model predicts.

Truly, I say to you1, this is what dreams are made of for a southern California precipophile;   get the sandbags out!  Years of below normal rain, rectified!  Drought busted!   Let’s see what drought bustin’, mutton bustin’, cow-punchin’, drought stompin’, calf ropin’, hornswaglin’, storm herdin’ map really looks like:

Valid at 5 PM AST, January 5th.  Drought bustin' portent all over this map!
Valid at 5 PM AST, January 5th.  Drought bustin’ portent all over this map!

Don’t even need to show what happens after this, “Juicy” out there mixes it up with some Arctic air and is slammed into southern Cal with Hawaiian-like dewpoints and rain.  Just like calf ropin’.  That cold air and upper jet extruding offshore will “rope” Juicy in.   Lotta “warm rain” involved, too, that type of rain that forms without the need for ice.

While Juicy loses some water and some punch after southern Cal, it would still be a big rain producer in Arizona, particularly the northern half.  We would likely be just inside the edge of the southern edge of this.  Still, we have to be glad for the State as a whole as our water situation would vastly improve with these storms, especially storm fountains 2 and 3.

Spaghetti tasters2, check this out for 5 PM Jan. 5th:

Valid at 5 PM AST, Jan 5th.   Looks pretty damn good for breakthrough flow to "the other side", from the central Pacific to the West Coast and Great Southwest, wouldn't you say?
Valid at 5 PM AST, Jan 5th. Looks pretty damn good for breakthrough flow to “the other side”, from the central Pacific to the West Coast and Great Southwest, wouldn’t you say? Note the bunching of red lines from the east Pac into Arizony.  Chances better than average that we’ll see this break on through to the other side, Doors, 1967.


Standing by for snow and rain….  Sincerely, standing by for rain, C-M.

Yesterday’s day in contrails

Pretty upset yesterday as contrail after contrail formed and floated over Catalina.  I don’t mind contrails when I’m flying somewhere, never even think of them, but when they foul the natural sky, I am livid.

Fortunately, the air got drier up there and contrails were rare after 10 AM.  I can hardly stand to post this, but will for the sake of documentation so that you may be outraged as well.  NIMB!

9:21 AM AST.  Barrage of contrails fouls natural sky.
9:21 AM AST. Barrage of contrails fouls natural sky.  Hope you’re mad now.

We hope this barrage was mainly due to those exceptional jet streams winds rushing down from Canada into the interior of the Southwest toward New Mexico causing airway contrails to shift over us.


Some winds between 30,000 and 35,000 feet were clocked at over 200 mph!  Great if you’re going from Seattle to Albuquerqueque, but not so great if you’re going the other way.

The End.


1I had a sudden urge to say, “hypocrites!” just then for some reason.  Crazy.

2″Spaghetti tasters”….  Made me wonder what happened to that great underground/alternative music band, The Oil Tasters…  Remember their big hit, “Slit Chapped Lips“?  Great example of what the 80s underground music scene was all about, that raw, exploration of different sounds, the overall contempt for “pop” music, the kind that makes a lot of money,  like that produced by the Four Aces, etc.

(Can’t find that song about chapped lips on YouTube, its that good!) ((Later, found it!!))

((Can’t believe that I have touched the entire extrema of music in one blog, from the Four Aces on the left, to the Oil Tasters on the right, and everything in between;  i.e., The Doors, 1967!))  (((Just shows you how deep your music knowledge can go;  can it get any broader3?)))

3I remind the reader that if humor like this is not your cup of tea, nor the personality I effect here is also not, that my offer to stop blogging for a million dollars is still on the table.

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.