Twofer

Rarely do passing lows get a two chances to produce rain, but the low passing overhead today and tomorrow, does. Ten days from now, its overhead again! How funny izzat? And precipful, too.

Measurable rain will fall today in Catalina CDP (“Census Designated Place”, i.e., its not a city), and in about 10 days when the SAME low returns after a boomerang trip down Texico way, thence to Baja, thence to so Cal, and back over Arizona on the 10th-11th after picking up some juice over the east Pac.

Thinking, as you are now, of a minimum of 0.05 inches and top of 0.50 inches, the latter larger amount if projected afternoon thunderstorms land on us.   Thus, best estimate, average of those two extremes, thinking Gaussian conceptual model modal value here, about 0.275 inches.

BTW, should be something in the way of an arcus cloud, or a batch of low scudding clouds underneath Cumulus and Cumulonimbus bases this afternoon as a windshift to the NW comes through in the afternoon or early evening hours, well in the next 18 h or so.  That could be a dramatic sight, and with that windshift, the temperature will drop 5-10° F.

When the low trudges over us the second time around in mid-October, the estimated extreme amounts are a trace minimum, and 1.00 inch max, in other words, pretty clueless here about how much could fall the second time around ten days from now.

If you don’t believe me about all this, here are is the WRF-GFS prediction for this afternoon, followed by the WRF-GFS model prediction 10 days from now, today being October 6th, in case you don’t know what the date is today, maybe you’re retired and lose track of the days and dates because you don’t have a lot to do everyday, just kind of sit there:

 Yesterday’s clouds, punctuated by a large worm

However for a moment, we did have a shower threat move toward us from the south, this:

The End