Clouds began building early yesterday on the Cat Mountains. Bases initially below Sam Ridge. It was a good sign of a possible “big day” since the lower the cloud bases initially, the more water the clouds will hold compared to a day with bases above Mt. Lemmon.
So, in our CMJ “club”, we look for that moment when clouds to begin form ice above Ms. Mt. Lemmon and her environs as the turrets climb ever higher in the morning and early afternoon sun, log it in our cloud diaries, and maybe compare to other recent days.
While CMP was expecting a gigantic blow up any time after this, it only happened in one spot, a sign that the atmosphere was in a suppression mode, that is, was not helping to cluster updrafts below cloud bases yesterday. Those forces can trump great low level humidity, dammitall.
Here’s the ONE behemoth of the many that were expected, based on an eyeball assessment early yesterday:
The weather ahead, immediately ahead
Lots of water in the air again today, and since yesterday was a “down day”, caused by some upper level negative feature passing by (often happens AFTER a good day, like the night before last), expect an “up day” today, more showers and thunderstorms. Now, lets see if the U of AZ model says that as well, for support of this SOP (Seat of Pants) forecast…. Yep! Pretty happy right now. Go here to see the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster output for today.