Worrying about wildflowers…

November will finish out dry.  And, with the extremely dry October we had followed by a rainless November (Correction here on November 25th!  Egad. We had a nice rain here on November 9-10th in which we received 0.48 inches, about half of November’s average!  Brain fading….  End of correction.)

….you can’t help but start to fret over March, and those great blooms that erupt so quickly in our deserts.  From what I have experienced and have learned, fall and early winter rains are critical for bountiful spring blooms;  January and February rains, not so much.

Rain is beginning to show up in the first week of December, but, that far in advance, its showing up beyond the model’s credibility horizon of about 6-7 days.  Also, the panels below are from the 06 Z (11 PM AST) model run, one that is not plumped up with as much global data at the runs at 12 Z (5 AM AST) and 00 Z (5 PM AST), so even more likely to be faulty.

Still, its the best I can do for finding future rain in Arizona/Catalina.  I am posting these maps at full size to make them look more important, have more visual impact, maybe put some pressure on the next model run to come up with something similar.

Will report back when these two rains show up again…or if some interesting clouds float by.

May insert some filler material blogs in the meantime…

The End.

Valid 11 AM AST, December 2nd. Green areas denote where rain has fallen over the prior 12 h (fell the night of the 1st-2nd)
Valid 11 AM AST, December 8th.




By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.