Supercloud’s CAPE to be bigger today

I was marveling at this title, one that just came out of nowhere, using the idea of a superhero and a standard measure of how bubbly the clouds might be.  I really don’t know how it happened, but there it was…

Think of “supercloud” as a Cumulonimbus cloud, those giants of the cloud kingdom, ones that can top out near 70,000 feet above sea level and can have UPDRAFTS as high as 80-100 mph in their very rare and strongest forms (where nothing can fall out, of course).  An armored T-28 research aircraft operated by the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology flew through one of those superclouds; went up on its own some 5,000 feet in a minute!

Well, of course, clouds in Arizona are never THAT bad (or good) depending on your viewpoint, but today, according to millions of calculations in the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster, the Cumulonimbus clouds of today will be more bouyant than the ones we had yesterday.  We get that indication from last night’s 11 PM AST model run where it calculates something called “Convective Available Potential Energy”, or CAPE.  Today’s CAPE will be about two or three times larger than yesterday’s, according to the model.   Orangutang1.  A first test of that U of AZ model’s prediction will be in this morning’s Tucson balloon sounding, which needs to replicate the model’s prediction for that time of day to have confidence in it.  (Will have to wait for quite awhile here while our TUS sounding; its still on its journey upward now at 5:11 AM.)

Precition of the TUS sounding for 5 AM AST. The red, dashed line delineates, with some terrible assumptions though, the amount of CAPE. Not much here, only
Predicted TUS sounding for 5 AM AST by the U of AZ supermodel which downsizes that output from the NOAA WRF-GFS one.  The red, dashed line delineates, with some terrible assumptions though, like the air isn’t mixing with the air around and above it, nevertheless its very useful.   The amount of CAPE isn’t  much here, only “500”, though its pretty good for 5 AM AST.  Supposed to be well over “1,000” by this afternoon!

 

The TUS ballon sounding ("rawinsonde") for 5 AM AST this morning (July 13th). Not as much CAPE suggested here as in the model, though the definition is somewhat different from the model.
The TUS ballon sounding (“rawinsonde”) for 5 AM AST this morning (July 13th).  Ooops! Not as much CAPE suggested here as in the model, though the definition is somewhat different from the model (which is Mixed layer CAPE, or MCAPE).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, what does all this gobbledygook mean?  Casting aside the fact that the actual sounding is not quite as unstable as our local model was predicting due to writer’s  “confirmation bias”, a killer of good science, we should have sooner2, bigger dumps overall in the area, and happily, more of them.  Thunder on Ms. Lemmon before noon will be a very good sign that the model has captured today pretty well.

Yesterday’s clouds and a stupefying sunset scene to the east

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7:56 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus (cellular area) and opacus (solid gray areas).
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1:55 PM. First moderate-sized Cumulonimbus arose just before this, vicinity of Oracle.
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2:16 PM. Pretty typical of yesterday’s rainshafts. Sprinkled (its NOT drizzle!) here in Sutherland Heights after this. We get mad when we think of people calling sprinkles, “drizzle” as you know, and it just kind of came there.) My apologies.
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7:19 PM. Glorious coloration of our fabulous Catalina Mountains, specifically, the lower portions of Samaniego Ridge.
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7:27 PM. A glorious halo effect created by a former Cumlonimbus anvil, a few minutes later. This was an incredible scene. Was lucky to be out and capture it.

 

 

 

The End.

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1An unexpected word has been inserted as a reader check.   Is anybody still reading this?  Techno-language causes droopy eyelids, makes people want to give up reading altogether, kids to fall behind in their STEM work.  Its quite a powerful effect.

2I have a some relatives and friends in Oklahoma that root for the U of O Sooners.  I will be rooting for sooners today, too.

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.