0.08 inches falls overnight on water year data! Must revise chart after “dare” to reflect new 10.91 inches total

Yesterday, in a ploy to get some rain, I “dared” it to rain on the water year data I presented for Catalina.  I didn’t think it would, to be honest, and also wanted a data “scoop” over other presenters of data who might be too shy to present data prematurely.  Remember, the rubric here is, “Right or wrong, you heard it here first!”

Yesterday, the water year total I presented has ended up being  slightly wrong.

It did rain.  Furthermore, the 0.08 inches, is the heaviest amount around if you check our Pima County ALERT gauge data.

Our new Catalina water year total is 10.91 inches after a hard, few minute rain just after 8:30 PM.  Mountains to the east were obscured, too, in a whitish haze so quite a little Cumulonimbus cloud emerged from that evening cloud deck, so rain-free for so many hours.

All in all, it was a dramatic day yesterday since the U of AZ rendering of the GTS-WRF had showers developing quickly in the middle of the afternoon and it was SO CLEAR, the sky SO BLUE for so long (a deep blue sky suggests dry conditions aloft), and  I wondered if I hadn’t seen an obsolete model run (while out tramping around on a horse yesterday morning)1.

Finally, just before 11 AM some Cumulus started to form on the Catalinas, but more on the north sides. But then clouds slowly started to form everywhere and they gradually filled as the day went on,  but were precip-free.  Cloud tops remained too warm to form ice, which as you know is the -10 C level (with some exceptions; very warm cloud bases, or, very cold ones).

So, while the sky was very pretty, thank you, there was no virga, or showers visible, at least until very late in the afternoon after I had pretty much given up on seeing precip or ice, though came out to look every 8 minutes to make sure I didn’t miss any surprises.  Diligence was to be rewarded; yours, too, I hope.  I might also note that the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster run from 5 AM AST, available by mid-morning, also saw that the inversion capping cloud tops was going to be eliminated by 5 PM yesterday; this as a major trough in the westerlies cruises into Arizona from California today.  It was just about as perfect a forecast as you can get, since it was just after that time, that cloud tops were able to sprout that bit higher and form ice, and an icy top appeared east of the Catalinas, and showers and virga appeared off toward the N.

Today?

Bye-bye, tropical air and summer-like clouds by later today (dry westerlies blasting in behind cool front).  I will miss you terribly, summer clouds, but will have to wait until next June or July to see you again.  Boo-hoo.  Will be a very pretty day, but, rain not likely with front.

Below, your cloud pictoral for September 21st:

SONY DSC
11:13 AM.
11:12 AM.
11:12 AM.
1:33 PM.  If you're like me, and I REALLY hope you are or you're not going to get much out this blog, yesterday you were straining your eyes for an icy sprout upwind.  But, it never happened.  I don't know how many good plays I missed during football day because I kept coming out to look upwind; all over really, for some ice.
1:33 PM. If you’re like me, and I REALLY hope you are or you’re not going to get much out this blog, yesterday you were straining your eyes for an icy sprout upwind. But, it never happened. I don’t know how many good plays I missed during football day because I kept coming out to look upwind; all over really, for some ice.  The Washington Huskies won, my former company team, BTW, taking care of “cupcake”, Idaho State.  Its great when you play non-competitive teams and don’t have to worry about anything, like so many teams do these days.  Oh, BTW, the clouds are coming right at you here.
4:47 PM.  By this time, several Cumulus in the area began to bulk up to congestus size, reflecting the loss of that capping stable layer up top.
4:47 PM. By this time, several Cumulus in the area began to bulk up to congestus size, reflecting the loss of that capping stable layer up top.  View is looking N across SaddleB.
5:07 PM.  While the Catalinas were still pretty "quiet" as far as producing clouds goes, the passing shadows on them were fabulous.
5:07 PM. While the Catalinas were still pretty “quiet” as far as producing clouds goes, the passing shadows on them were fabulous.
5:20 PM.  By this time, several light rain showers were visible to the N-NNE due to ice developing in the fatter Cu.
5:20 PM. By this time, several light rain showers were visible to the N-NNE due to ice developing in the fatter Cu.
6:05 PM.  Wonder if you logged this first visible icy top, beyond the Catalinas
6:05 PM. Wonder if you logged this first visible icy top, beyond the Catalinas?  It was only visible for a minute or two before being obscured by the clouds in the foreground.  You were probably watching football, maybe even “Johnny Football”,  and letting your cloud obs slide I bet.  I’ll get over it after awhile.
6:15 PM.  By this time, clouds were beginning to mass in over the Catalinas in the upwind direction and, with ice around, you began to wonder, well, maybe not YOU, because you're probably still watching football, but I began to wonder, "Could it rain here?  Could these reach up to the ice-forming level?  And they did as little radar echoes began to form over and downwind of the Catalinas as night fell, preceded by a nice sunset.
6:15 PM. By this time, clouds were beginning to mass in over the Catalinas in the upwind direction and, with ice around, you began to wonder, well, maybe not YOU, because you’re probably still watching football, but I began to wonder, “Could it rain here? Could these reach up to the ice-forming level? And they did as little radar echoes began to form over and downwind of the Catalinas as night fell, preceded by a nice sunset.
6:25 PM.  Another in a long series of nice sunsets that occur in Arizona.  Here, Stratocumulus clouds are under lit by a setting sun.
6:25 PM. Another in a long series of nice sunsets that occur in Arizona. Here, Stratocumulus clouds are under lit by a setting sun.

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1 footnote photo below

9:03 AM.  In case you didn;t believe that I could be a weatherman and also ride a horse.  Here, weeds of Catalina Regional Park. which most of us hope will be completed before the year 2150.
9:03 AM. In case you didn;t believe that I could be a weatherman and also be able to ride a horse. Been bucked off a few times, too, though I don’t recommend it.  Here, weeds of Catalina Regional Park. which most of us hope will be completed before the year 2150.