Updated Catalina water year rainfall; so much ice, so little rain yesterday

Updated water year rainfall through 2013

Add to text box, lower left, the words: “….unless you’re quite young.”
Looked like there was a leveling off during the past 15 years, along with the “puzzling 15-year hiatus1” in global warming, coincidentally, so I used a “poly” fit instead of a linear one that would reflect the “stabilization” of water year rainfall in these latter years. Those early wet years in our record are now associated with a big change in the positions where the lows and highs like to be in the Pacific, one that comes around every few decades called the “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO).  The change to a new regime occurred in 1977-78, just when the Catalina rainfall records started at Our Garden down on Stallion where you should buy some stuff.  There was also a gigantic El Nino in 1982-83 that contributed to that early wetness.  Remember all the flooding in September and October of 1983?
You may notice that I have posted this some ten days before the end of the water year.  I dare it to rain on this year’s data! (And I hope it does, given our meager total.)
Yesterday’s clouds
Many more and thunderstorms much closer than expected from this keyboard (heard thunder just after 12 Noon!)  Here’s our day in pictures:
8:15 AM.  Altocumulus perlucidus provides some nice lighting effects on the Catalinas.
8:15 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus provides some nice lighting effects on the Catalinas.
10:03 AM.  Early risers suggest tremendous instability up there.
10:03 AM. Early risers, like that middle one,  suggest tremendous instability up there.
10:31 AM.  See note.
10:31 AM. See excitement note.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12:38 PM.  Cumulonimbus/thunderstorm forms NE of Catalina.
12:06 PM. Cumulonimbus/thunderstorm forms NE of Catalina.  Due to high and cold cloud bases (at and a little below freezing later) this cloud has a high preponderance of ice compared to our more tropical Cbs.
12:38 PM.  Eventually becomes the "Dump of the Day" over there by the town of Oracle.
12:38 PM. Eventually becomes the “Dump of the Day” over there by the town of Oracle as it recedes (boohoo).
3:44 PM.  As noted in the title, yesterday's clouds with their cold bases had a LOT of ice in them, and in most cases, not a lot of rain fell out.  Here, an example of a dissipating Cb that didn't produce much more even in its peak than what you see here.
3:44 PM. As noted in the title, yesterday’s clouds with their cold bases had a LOT of ice in them, and in most cases, not a lot of rain fell out. Here, an example of a dissipating Cb that didn’t produce much more even in its peak than what you see here, a VERY slight shaft.
6:24 PM.  Still, some nice color at sunset.  That's what this blog is mostly about, pretty pictures, in case you missed those scenes of the previous day..
6:24 PM. Still, some nice color at sunset. That’s what this blog is mostly about, pretty pictures, in case you missed those scenes of the previous day..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today….  Dewpoints are up from yesterday over much of southern Arizona, and mods suggest a similar day to yesterday, scattered to broken Cumulus clouds with an isolated Cumulonimbus, with more coverage in rain than yesterday.  Whoopee!  Rain is actually predicted here!  How fantastic would that be? And I would have to update my opening just graph just that bit, an enjoyable task, really.

Mods are also indicating that some rain may leak into tomorrow as our first tentative cool season-style trough and front pass by.  We’ll see.  In any event, should be a pretty day today and tomorrow.  Try not to be inside the WHOLE day watching football!

The End

 

 

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1From the news section of Science mag:  “Puzzling” 15-year hiatus in global warming