A day with Cirrocumulus, Cirrus and Cumulus; summer rain season looks to start on time

What a day, Mr. and Mrs. Catalina, except for that last second “header”:

7:57 AM. Cirrocumulus with exceptionally fine granulation (left center).
7:57 AM. Cirrocumulus with exceptionally fine granulation (left center). You might feel a little chop if you were flying in it, but it would be hardly anything.  More chop, lower right, where you have something akin to ocean waves rolling along from left to right.

 

8:04 AM. Pretty Cirrus fibratus (strands are pretty straight in Ci fib).
8:04 AM. Pretty Cirrus fibratus (strands are pretty straight in Ci fib).
4:47 PM. Pretty scene over the S-Brooke population complex.
4:47 PM. Pretty Cu humilis and fractus scene near the S-Brooke population complex.
5:05 PM. Nice shadow bounding the Catalinas,
5:05 PM. Cu hum and fractus over the Catalinas,  Nice shadow bounds the mountains I thought.

The weather way ahead, 10 days and beyond; dreaming green pixels

Rain showing up around these parts beginning overnight on July 3rd-4th, kind of a normal time for a summer rain season onset. This from last evening’s global model crunch. Prior model runs have been dry, so it could be bogus, of course. But, its a hopeful sign. Rains every day after that in this run. Below, the titillating start as rendered by IPS MeteoStar:

Valid at 5 AM AST July 4th. Green areas show those ones where the model has calculated some rain in the prior 12 h.
Valid at 5 AM AST July 4th. Green areas show those ones where the model has calculated some rain in the prior 12 h.
Valid at 5 PM AST July 8th. Raining all over Arizona by this time. How great would that be? Com'on model!
Valid at 5 PM AST July 8th. Raining all over Arizona by this time. How great would that be? Com’on model! Don’t let me down! A feel a really old song coming on about being let down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s look at some spaghetti and see if the “solution” above has any credibility at all:

Valid at 5 PM July 4th. Note gaps in red lines in northern Arizona and NM. Errorful mod runs are therefore pretty confident the necessary ridge of high pressure aloft WILL be centered to the north of us. So, there is a fair amount of confidence from spaghetti that the summer rain season will start pretty much on time.
Valid at 5 PM July 4th. Note gaps in red lines in Arizona and NM. Errorful mod runs (deliberately so, recall) are therefore pretty confident the necessary ridge of high pressure aloft WILL be centered just to the north of us at this time, extruding all the way from the central Atlantic. So, there is a fair amount of confidence from spaghetti that the summer rain season will start pretty much on time.  What’s also supportive is the bulge in the jet stream to the north in southern Canada, as indicated by the bunching of those bluish lines. Pac NW looks cool and rainy with this pattern, BTW.  You can enjoy more spaghetti here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, right or wrong, you heard it here first because I got up early; summer rain season looks to start on time.

The End.

Author: Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.