Baby cutoff low coming to a sky near you; is followed by June in May

Something to blab about at last.  The computer models show a small area of low pressure breaking off the main jet stream and setttling over Arizona for a few days.  Arrives on Monday, May 7th, then hangs around for a couple of days before moving off.  Rain here?  Doesn’t look like it now, but there should be some high based Cumulus, and one or two high-based thunderstorms over the mountains, maybe some Altocumulus here and there, too.

The happy part of this is that this time of year weak lows aloft like this one can produce a boatload of rain in the droughty areas of eastern New Mexico and west Texas when they interact with that Gulf air sloshing northward and westward into those areas.  That happens after this forecast map.  Let’s hope so.  See below from our friends at Environment Canada for the afternoon of May 7th:

 

However, and pretty confidently predicted a huge bubble of warm air arises over us in the days.  This in the longer term NOAA WRF-GFS model rendered by IPS Meteostar below.  The last of the snowbirds will be scurrying off to their northern climes when this hits since temperatures are likely to ascend to over 100 F for a few days (a preview of normal June weather).  Get ready.

Errata

Mr. Cloud-maven person misspoke recently when he asserted that May was our driest month.  Below he reprises the Catalina monthly rainfall averages for himself and his two other readers.

JUNE is our driest month!