Truly LATE breaking news, untimely really, but Augustober 18th was too special a day to ignore:
Giant clouds, dense rain shafts, frequent lightning in the area throughout the afternoon, dewpoints in the high 50s to 60 F; can it really be after the middle of October? Or, is this some kind of preview of climate change we can look forward to in the decades ahead, that is, if you’re thunderphilic?
5:05 PM. An amazing scene, and thunderstorm with such powerful updrafts that when those updrafts are blocked by the inversion at the base of the Stratosphere, they force the winds at that level to slow or backup and the anvil protrudes upwind (center left), something that is common with severe thunderstorms. This was significant here because the winds at 40,000 feet were around 50 kts, far stronger than anything we have here during a typical summer rain season. Summer Cumulonimbus cloud anvils can splash outward easily against weak winds up there in summer when they hit that barrier at the top of the tropopause. This just in from Mark A: severe thunderstorms, I have just learned here on the 20th , were observed in the PHX, and the NWS has a great link going describing all the mayhem it produced. I did not know this until just now in the middle of writing this first caption when I read Mark’s e-mail.1:40 PM.
1:56 PM. Anvil of the Cumulonimbus over west Tucson, drifts overhead of Catalina, and in three minutes, rain drops started to hit the ground. This is amazing because those drops had to fall from at around 20, 000 feet above the ground (estimated as bottom height of this thick anvil) and could only have happened if those isolated drops had been hailstones ejected out the anvil, something that also only occurs with severe storms with very strong updrafts in them. So, if you saw those few drops fall between 2 and 2:05 PM you saw something pretty special.
6:26 AM. Early portent: Cu congestus, aka, “heavy Cumulus) piling up this early.6:29 AM. Mammatus of the morning., an extraordinary scene for mid-October, pointing to the possibility of an unusual day ahead with strong storms. as was the scientific basis for giant clouds on the 18th in the amount of CAPE predicted, over 1,000 units of Convective Available Potential Energy, later that day from computer models. That is a lot for mid-October, take my word for it.3:45 PM. Strong storms did not form over or near the Catalinas yesterday, but they did get something. As you can see the top of this guy (Cumulonimbus calvus) is very subdued compared to the giants that formed elsewhere.5:53 PM. Peakaboo Cumulonimbus calvus top east of Mt. Lemmon provided a nice highlight after sunset. And to have convection like this going on this late was remarkable. Some heavy showers and a thunderstorm formed downwind of the Catalinas about this time,, too.5:51 PM. Pretty nice, summer-looking sunset that day, too.
The weather just ahead, and this might be it for precip for the rest of October
A nice-looking upper level trough is ejecting over us from the SW this morning but the computer model says its going to be a dry event. A second low center forms just about over us in the next day. AZ model doesn’t see much rain for us throughout these events, and rain doesn’t begin here until after dark today.
I think that is WRONG; bad model. Watch for some light showers this morning, then a break and rain overnight (which the models do predict). Due this quite bad model forecast, as seen from this keyboard, I feel must interject for the blog reader I have, an improved rain prediction for Catalina over that rendered by a computer model.
Feel like guesstimating a minimum of 0.25 inches between now and Thursday evening, max possible, 0.60 inches, so the median of those two, and maybe the best guestimate being the average of those two, or 0.425 inches here in Catalina. When you see a prediction of a rainfall total down to thousandths of an inch, you really know that the person predicting it knows what he is doing…..
Below, your U of AZ disappointing, but objective, take on the amount of rain based on last evening’s data and one that is the result of billions of calculations. One must remember that cloud maven person’s calculation of the rainfall amount for Catalina is only based on three.
From the 5 PM AST run executed by the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster.
Rarely do passing lows get a two chances to produce rain, but the low passing overhead today and tomorrow, does. Ten days from now, its overhead again! How funny izzat? And precipful, too.
Measurable rain will fall today in Catalina CDP (“Census Designated Place”, i.e., its not a city), and in about 10 days when the SAME low returns after a boomerang trip down Texico way, thence to Baja, thence to so Cal, and back over Arizona on the 10th-11th after picking up some juice over the east Pac.
Thinking, as you are now, of a minimum of 0.05 inches and top of 0.50 inches, the latter larger amount if projected afternoon thunderstorms land on us. Thus, best estimate, average of those two extremes, thinking Gaussian conceptual model modal value here, about 0.275 inches.
BTW, should be something in the way of an arcus cloud, or a batch of low scudding clouds underneath Cumulus and Cumulonimbus bases this afternoon as a windshift to the NW comes through in the afternoon or early evening hours, well in the next 18 h or so. That could be a dramatic sight, and with that windshift, the temperature will drop 5-10° F.
When the low trudges over us the second time around in mid-October, the estimated extreme amounts are a trace minimum, and 1.00 inch max, in other words, pretty clueless here about how much could fall the second time around ten days from now.
If you don’t believe me about all this, here are is the WRF-GFS prediction for this afternoon, followed by the WRF-GFS model prediction 10 days from now, today being October 6th, in case you don’t know what the date is today, maybe you’re retired and lose track of the days and dates because you don’t have a lot to do everyday, just kind of sit there:
5 PM AST, today, October 6th. Joe low goes by, heads toward Texas.5 AM AST, Friday, October 16th, the day before football day. Joe returns after visiting NM, TX, MEX, Baja, east Pac, then SC. Full cycle here, from IPS MeteoStar. Pretty humorous to watch this happen.
Yesterday’s clouds, punctuated by a large worm
6:57 AM. If you thought the clouds were fatter to the north most of the day yesterday, you were right. Many modest Cumulus passed overhead of Catalina and then fattened up to the north because the lifting mechanism aloft was stronger to the north of us. Quite a few moiuntainstations registered over an inch to the north of us.
However for a moment, we did have a shower threat move toward us from the south, this:
11:52 AM. Whilst on a hike up the Baby Jesus Trail, this appeared. Looked promising! But, vaporized into mere sprinkles. If you saw this, you almost immediately were thinking of ice forms like needles and sheaths, since the cloud was relatively shallow, and its still warm aloft. Needles and sheath (hollow columns) only form at temperatures above -10° C. Such an occurrence is rare in Arizona, so, quite an interesting bit of hand-waving here.10:57 AM. Hike up the Baby Jesus Trail was punctuated by seeing a very colorful worm of some kind. Not much else happened in weather or wildlife the rest of the way, Morning glory coverage was a little disappointing.4:17 PM. I am sure when you saw this Cumulus congestus that you, as I was, thinking you’d see a little ice emit out the right, aging and descending side of this cloud. In fact, no ice was visible. However, it was kind of neat to think how close we are now days in our cloud assessments, right or wrong.
Along with this photo sequence, I reprise the thoughts you had as a CMJ1 yesterday as you watched a truly stunning cloud drama evolve:
6:01 PM. Huh. Kind of an isolated patch of dying Cumulus, transitioning to Stratocumulus (Strato, “flat”, Cumulus, “heap.” Huh. Flat heap? Kinda funny. A little late in the day for anything to happen, that’s for sure.6:16 PM. Well, that’s kind of rude. Must’ve heard my comment.6:24 PM. Hah-hah; that rude “finger” came off. But look, rain’s coming out! Wow! And a much fatter turret is emerging. How interesting! Very surprising this late in the day.6:26 PM. This is really getting interesting! More rain coming out, a whole series of turrets are emerging! How can this be? Hardly another cloud in the sky, they’ve all died away, but this one seems to be on Red Bull.6:34 PM. Good grief, can hardly believe how big this has gotten after looking like a dead bit cloud! When the rain is being released the cloud is no longer carrying all that weight and can spurt upward.6:36 PM. Bigger yet.6:39 PM. Truly magnificent. Since the main vertical riser does not show clear evidence of being fibrous, this would be call a Cumulonimbus calvus, “calvus” meaning bald. To the left was older cloud which did appear fibrous. In those cases, the cloud would be termed a Cb capillatus. Not a lot of lightning with this yesterday, so updrafts probably not extreme. Updrafts separate hail and smaller ice which provide electrification; no updraft to speak of, as in “flat” clouds, no electrification.
Nice morning, though, breezy, humid (dewpoint 65 F) with “flat heaps” (Stratocu) topping Sam Ridge now. What will happen today? Mods think some showers will form in the mid-afternoon here and there. But wind will keep the temperatures down, reduce chances of that.
Should be a pretty day regardless of what happens with the blue of the sky deepening each day as the sun recedes to the south farther each day.
Strangely, in the longer, unreliable term, the mods have been forecasting rain in AZ almost every day the last ten days of September, and this has been repeated for several runs. Huh#3.
The End; back to other work.
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1CMJ– Cloud Maven Junior, our local club. No meeting this month.
BTW, a little more than 4.5 inches has fallen on Mt. Lemmon in the past 24 h. 0.99 inches fell here in Sutherland Heights. Maybe the Sutherland Wash will be running this morning. That would be nice to see.
More rains ahead in the next few days. Mushrooms coming…
Rain water balloon about to hit ground.Rain water balloon hitting ground, shoving other rain shaft aside.Cumulus tribute to Pac Man.Electricity.Plein air painting by nature.Ditto on the Catalinas.Dramatic shot, film noir maybe.Marana gets wet, too.Pretty.An approaching complex array of clouds just before sunset led to evening/nighttime TSTMS (weather text for “thunderstorms”). Often at this time of day, showers like this just fade away to just anvil debris. But not yesterday. Must have been, in this case, indicative of the approach of an upper level “congregator” or disturbance that doesn’t care so much about day or night.
Morning thunder, evening thunder; 0.84 inches of rain, 1-2 inches in the mountains, with some of the most dramatic skies and shocking cloud changes ever seen (by me). “But, hey, enough of ‘me’, lets get on with the ‘shockumentary'”, as Rob Reiner might say.
Scene 1: Its morning. A horsey ride has been planned with an important, published friend. You’re thinking, “It will be good to be seen with someone important.” No one’s paying attention to weather. The weather is cloudy, quite nice really, but nothing threatening can be seen.
6:48 AM. Nothing to worry about really. Just a patch of Altocumulus castellanus. Quite pretty.
Scene 2. Heading out.
7:20 AM. Wonder what that is coming ’round the mountain. Probably nothing, though it is kind of dark over there. Cloud bases are lower, too. Desert’s turning a nice green now after the recent rains. Too bad there isn’t more rain ahead.
Scene 3. On the trails.
7:33 AM. Been on the trails for quite awhile, maybe more than 12 minutes… Cloud bases lower still, but, its probably just harmless, non-precipitating Stratocumulus. Nothing to be too concerned about, though the amount of water in the air must be prodigious today.
Scene 4. Ooops
7:43 AM. Rain and thunder approached rapidly. Note horse’s rear pointing in the direction of the storm (lower center right). As a horseman, you would know that horses often point there rear ends at storms, hard to say why, but its a classic sign that a storm is approaching from that direction, though you can see it yourself as well. Actually, we were fleeing like mad, embarrassed galore that cloud maven person did not look at radar that morning to see what was over the hill.
Scene 5. Dramatic skies and a few close strikes.
7:47 AM. Just about back, but LTG strikes getting closer faster.
The storm passed dropping 0.22 inches. And, compounding error, as we know, when potent upper air disturbances bring morning thunder and rain, its pretty much always the case that the rest of the day will be dry as a subsiding couplet of air follows a rising one, the the strongly rising couplet of air that forced our morning clouds and storm.
So, was kind of looking ahead to a disappointing rest of the day , but was thankful for the unusual morning storm.
1:49 PM. As expected, a large clearing occurred following the morning rain, and a few harmless Cumulus developed over the Catalinas.5:49 PM. A thunderstorm passes NE of Catalina, but like the day before, will likely only bring on “a mighty wind”, to quote Rob Reiner again, though a rain-cooled one. That will be nice.5:59 PM. Quite “histrionic”, but certainly won’t get here…..6:07 PM. Nice Cumulus congestus in foreground; giant anvil in back from the storm to the N-NE.6:10 PM. Nice scruff of Stratocumulus/Cumulus mediocris rides above the NE winds that blew out of the storm to the north. Certainly, these clouds won’t do anything. Bases disorganized, nothing congealing.6:17 PM. Huh. Bases looking a little better, especially back there over the mountains. Still, seems VERY unlikely anything will happen. Its late in the day, temperature falling…..6:31 PM. The larger base has crept closer to Catalina. But, as you can plainly see, its not doing anything, and hasn’t over the past 20 min or so, so you can pretty well forget that it will do anything. A few minutes later, thunder began to erupt from it. I could NOT believe it, as you were thinking as well. No sign of an anvil, ice, or shaft! Forecast of no rain going bad….very bad.6:34 PM. There it is, on the right, the emergence of the shaft from one of the smallest thundering clouds this writer has ever seen. Within a couple of minutes, Oro Valley below was not visible!6:40 PM. Looking at Oro Valley!6:41 PM. Looking toward Catalina, lower portion. Its gone. The visible sun shows that the intense rainshaft and cloud cover were quite narrow and limited.6:54 PM. Backside of first dump shown above. Magnificent!
But it wasn’t over by a long ways was it?
6:53 PM. A new, much larger, firmer base has formed in the same spot as the previous storm. And you KNOW its going to dump on us!7:01 PM. What a blast! This one brought pea-sized hail to the Sutherland Heights neighborhood.7:02 PM. Perhaps the shot of the day of the first evening blast as it moved over and past Saddlebrook.
You won’t have to go to New Mexico, Sonora, or the Indian State of Kerala to find great summer rain. According to this model output from last evening, its only a bit more than a week away!
The last time we saw a model prediction like the ones below, was for the 24 h ending today, made a whopping 12 days ago. When you consider the great rains we had ending YESTERDAY morning (2-7 inches in the mountains, and inch here in The Heights, that far out prediction was only a day or so off. So, there’s hope that the paucity of summer rain that has left our desert so brown will be rectified a bit more in the near future.
Below, from 5 PM AST obs, the WRF-GFS 12-h rain totals predicted for August 20 and beyond as rendered by IPS MeteoStar. Normally, these are pretty useless predictions, but since that last one with so much rain foretold was close to what actually happened, maybe there’s something to watch out for around the 20th.
Valid at 5 AM AST, August 20th. Colored regions denote areas where the model has calculated that rain has fallen during the prior 12 h. Blue indicates heavier precip than green.Hard to be bluer than this! Valid in only 288 h from now! Valid on Friday, August 21st at 5 AM AST.
Some recent cloud photos
12:46 PM, August 7th. Telephone pole was going down on Linda Vista due to this microburst outflow.2:45 PM, August 7th. The Gap gets shafted. Nice.2:55 PM, August 7th. One of the great cloud bases of our time begins to take shape UPWIND of Catalina!3:03 PM, August 7th. “So round, so firm, so fully packed”, as the cigarette ad used to claim. This is looking really great for Catalina at this point, might unload right on us!. I am sure I am reflecting the excitement you felt that day.3:03 PM, August 7th. “Droop, there it is“. A report from Birdman, Rick Bowers, indicated that 1.16 inches fell in just in this storm. over there on Trotter, south end of Catalina. Only 0.71 inches in the Sutherland Heights, but still great. Fizzlerama continued as the storm headed north toward Saddlebrook with less than 0.2 inches there.3:20 PM, August 7th. Visibility, for a few seconds, down to 1/8th of a mile in TRW++, wind gusts to 30 kts or so. Now this is exciting! Temp dropped from 97 F to 72 F! This was not quite the lowest visibility.After a night of intermittent rain and thunder, dawn yesterday brought this dump on Sam Ridge, where 1.06 inches fell in an hour, 0.51 inches in 15 minutes.
Have had little time lately, some problems, too, loading photos in WP, so that’s why. Looks like the next best chance for rain is Friday into Saturday. But you already know that from all the TEEVEE weather you watch.
The End.
From three days ago. Marana/west Tucson got shafted pretty good. At least an inch fell in the core of this beauty. This was after it looked like it was going to be a quiet day west of the Catalinas.
From a single snap, this LTG complexity caught three evenings ago.This was taken seconds before the big flash, which kind of ruined the exposure when it happened.This last series of photos were taken the evening before. Kinda pretty I thought.
In other news…..
Record July rains are falling in much of the coastal and intermediate valleys of southern California as the pathetic remnant of once proud Category FOUR hurricane Dolores makes landfall there today. Places like San Diego have had well over an inch, unheard of in July. August, not so much, since tropical storm remnants have passed over southern Cal in a few Augusts. Remember August 1977, when two inches fell on LA due to a tropical storm remnant?
That also August deluge in Los Angeles, by coincidence I am sure, preceded the big Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) switch in which low centers in the Pacific shifted farther to the south beginning with the 77-78 winter and the Arctic warmed up. Wallace et al 1995, Science Mag, discoverers of the PDO, were claiming that the PDO shift had seriously muddied up the global warming hoopla of the time, suggesting caution in those global warming claims.
Nobody really paid any attention, since it was about to get even WARMER in the years immediately ahead, like in the 97-98 winter when a giant El Nino, like the one now out there, spiked earth temperatures to a record high of the time.
By the way, the phrase, “global warming”, has been supplanted by the phrase, “climate change”, one that has been bastardized from its original use since climatologists have always considered the phrase, “climate change” a temperature-neutral, precipitation-neutral, could-go-either-way one, but as you know today it is one-tailed; that is, “climate change” today has only ONE meaning by those (often non-professionals) who use it; that an anthropogenic WARMING of the climate is underway with its attendant effects on precipitation and life itself.
When the earth stopped warming some 15-20 years ago, the global warming phrase heard all over the media had to be supplanted with something else, of course. I laugh, bitterly really, when I think of award-winning science geophys writer, Richard Kerr, of Sceince Mag, who wrote an article in Science, quoting the Hadley Center and such, titling his 2009 article about the hiatus in the rise in temperature, “What Happened to Global Warming?”
Of course, today such a title would not be allowed in Science Magazine. But then, Richard Kerr could not have titled his article, “What Happened to Climate Change?” either, since climate change is always happening on this planet, probably the others like it.
Speaking of mud, or muddying things up, some scientists (Karl et al.) are now claiming (in 2015) there was NO HIATUS in the earth’s temperature; that its been rising all along! This astounding finding is due to some manipulations/”corrections” of existing data and use of African and other data not previously available. You can read about this in summary form: Lost and Found_Sci 6-5-2015
This made me feel sad for the great scientists of the day, like Susan Soloman and others, who have generated hypotheses about WHY the pause in the rise in temperatures has occurred, even publishing those hypotheses in high end journals like Science Mag or Nature.
Those folks are bound to be pretty embarrassed now since they may have been explaining nothing that was real. It doesn’t get more embarrassing than that; kind of like explaining N-Rays, that bogus radiation reported after the turn of the century by French scientist, Renee Blondlot, at Nance University (the “N” was for Nance). Man, was Blonbdlot embarrassed when American physicist, Robert Wood, went to France to see “N-Rays” for himself and found that they were imaginary and reported them as so1. N-Rays, though they had been “confirmed” in numerous studies, were soon gone from the scene, one of the greatest mass delusions known to science.
Was there REALLY no hiatus, that the Hadley Center in England, perhaps the foremost climate center in the world, was somehow misled when they were reporting a pause or hiatus in warming? One thinks that the Karl et al 2015 report will get a LOT of scrutiny. Stand by….
More TSTMS in the area today through most of the summer. Hope one hits here in the Heights. We’re falling behind our 3.5 inch or so average for July.
The End.
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1It was the story of American physicist, Robert Wood, as told in the 1982 book, Betrayers of the Truth: Fraud and Deceit in the Halls of Science, by William Broad and Nicholas Wade, that partially inspired your Catalina Cloud Maven.com to go to Israel in 1986 to see the clouds for himself since, in his experience after years of airborne cloud work at the University of Washington), the cloud reports emanating out of Israel were goofy, also the likely product of someone’s imagination. Those Israeli cloud reports WERE goofy as found by your author (1988 pub), and independently by others (U of Tel Aviv).
“Just Another Day“, btw, one of the many great songs by Oingo Boingo, if you’ve ever heard of them. We’re not just about clouds here. Trying to broaden your pop cultural knowledge with distractions like this.
Yesterday was remarkable in how exact it was to the day before in clouds, but ultimately disappoiting.1 There was supposed to be more cloud action, shafting around, that kind of thing, but there wasn’t. It was virtually identical in every way, including having only two clouds that got high and cold enough to have ice in them. I am sure you recorded them in your cloud diary, and this will be a little tedious as a result, but….what the HECK.
Here is your cloud day for yesterday, focusing on the detection of ice in clouds:
1:15 PM. Not much going on.1:17 PM. Not much going on.2:44 PM. Not much going on, but nice cloud street.3:13 PM. Suddenly, an erection of cloud (center at top) shot out of the larger Cumulus mediocris/congestus. Would it form ice? I was thinking so, and with that, maybe a rain shaft that could disrupt the wind field and trigger more buildups. “Here we go,” I was thinking, as you were as well.3:14 PM, Looks pretty firm yet. No indication of ice. But definitely a few thousand feet higher and colder than the surrounding cloud.3:15:30. Beginning to soften and fall back! No sign of ice. Those ragged edges represent the intrusion of dry air into the cloud called “entrainment.” Entrainment is less as the cloud shoots upward and contains vortex rings. Worried now that this turret was not as high as initially perceived.3:17 PM. Stepping back and looking at the whole cloud, the top has been disconnected from the bottom by very dry air between where the top is now, and the lower part of the cloud. Entrainment has beheaded this cloud! And, no sign of ice…yet.3:18 PM. Not much good up there, with no body, but ice is now visible, and is likely forming, as more of the cloud head evaporates. See that faint ice veil below the head?3:21 PM. I am sure you can see the wisps of ice that this turret contained quite easily now. Ice won’t do much good being decapitated like that with no cloud body to fall through and grow.. “Decapitated.” Huh? Seem to be on a religious theme today. Must be due to that article I read in the Atlantic recently.3:30 PM. Twin towers, and like the one over Catalina, it faded into oblivion after getting a little higher than ours, forming more ice.4:13 PM. Ever hopeful, but no, never saw no ice from this tall boy, phrasing here mindful of that classic new old folk song, “Never did no wanderin’ ” by The Folksmen.7:26 PM. Nice storms elsewhere. Here, looking NE-E.
Today is another day. More hope for a shower late today or tomorrow, models say, then likely another dry spell as the summer rain season ebbs again for awhile until that possible super hurricane Dolores drags some moisture up this way. (Dolores, now just a tropical storm, was just born off southern Mexico near the coast. Will be interesting to see just how strong she gets.
The End
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1Some fans like to see misspelled words here. Amyone see that criminal who was sentenced to “life in person” as described in the AZ Star? That was pretty grate.
0.07 inches here in Sutherland Heights yesterday afternoon. Much more SW-NW of us, as the photos below show.
A predicted super hurricane?
I now direct your attention to the forecast maps below, produced by the WRF-GFS model last evening’s global data, courtesy of IPS MeteoStar, the usual. The aforementioned extremely strong hurricane foretold in the models 24 hours ago, has acheived in this latest run, mythical strength, possibly a Category 6 or 7 (which don’t yet exist).
We presume the model went berserk, so its kind of fun to imagine how intense, how low the pressure in the center of such a goofy predicted hurricane could possibly be in the panels below.
First, the jaw-dropping -to-weather-nerds like the current writer, predicted height of 540 decameters height of the 500 millibar pressure level! For the pressure of 500 millibars in the atmosphere to be reached at a level that LOW in warm tropical air means that the sea level pressure must be astoundingly LOW to begin with. In warm air, the pressure doesn’t change as rapidly going up as it does in dense cold air.
I don’t believe, in viewing many weather maps with hurricanes that a height that low has ever occurred at 500 millibars. Thus, the pressure at sea level, for whatever reason, must be incredible in this predicted hurricane SW of Cabo. Surf will be up!
The record measured low pressure at sea level is 870 mb in one of the super typhoons (Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific some years ago where winds were estimated at about 200 mph. It is thought that recent devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan, 2013, had a lower pressure, 858 mb, or the equivalent of the density of air at 5,000 feet elevation was thought to have occurred at sea level!
The heights of the 500 millibar pressure level predicted for 5 AM AST, Sunday, July 19th. The center of the hurricane SW of Baja is shown to be 5400 meters (540 “decameters”).Valid at the time of the above map. The surface pressure lines are too packed to display, but the center pressure would certainly be less than 900 millibars, and in such a tight center, winds, maybe 200-300 mph, tornado-like. Kidding only slightly.
OK, enough fun with a crazy model prediction, though this hurricane will be extremely strong, and the models are still bringing its pathetic, but wet, remnant into California a couple of days later. Many July rain records, though they are not much to begin with, will be broken if this remnant does make it to Cal.
What we really hope for is some aircraft reconnaissance reports during the life of this strong hurricane instead of satellite-derived estimates of strength (though the latter are quite good).
