Stratocumulus clouds – Page 6

O, models, disappoint

Odile passed to the S and E of Cat land, leaving only 0.13 inches here in the Heights, the Sutherland ones. Didn’t even get the half inch I hoped for. Oh, well, we can be happy for the droughty areas of New Mexico that got the brunt of that tropical system as did portions of extreme SE AZ. You may know that for many days in advance and up until 11 PM the night before last (shown here), our best models had O practically passing right over us with prodigious rains indicated.

Unfortunately, we meteorologists often “go down with the ship” when this happens due to model forecast consistency. Only in the last minutes, so to speak, did the model runs get it right (but too late to be of much use) and finally indicated that the true path of the heaviest rain was NOT going to be over us, as was already being discovered via obs. O was such a cloud mess, the mods may have been off in locating where the center was. Not sure. Will have to wait for the panel report.

Seems to be preciping on the Cat Mountains right now, though doesn’t show up on radar, so its likely a RARE “warm rain” event here in AZ where the rain forms by collisions between larger cloud drops to form rain drops and the cloud tops are low¹. Maybe that’s O’s legacy; tropical air and a warm rain day sighting.

BTW, whilst Catalina and most of Tucson didn’t get much, it has continued to rain steadily in our mountains over the past 24 h with Dan Saddle, up there in the CDO watershed, leading the way with 2.09 inches in 24 at this hour (5 AM) and its still coming down lightly, as noted. Its been a fantastic rain since it was steady and soaking up there over that whole 24 h period, much like in our winter storms. Below, some totals from the PIma County ALERT gauges. You can see more totals here.

Gauge    15         1           3          6            24         Name                        Location
    ID#      minutes    hour        hours      hours        hours
    —-     —-       —-        —-       —-         —-       —————–            ———————
Catalina Area
    1010     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.16      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Rd in Saddlebrooke
    1020     0.00       0.04       0.04        0.04         0.20      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mi SW of Oracle
    1040     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Rd 1.3 mi E of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.16      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 mi W of Charouleau Gap
    1060     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.16      Pig Spring                   approximately 1.1 mi NE of Charouleau Gap
    1070     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      Cargodera Canyon             NE corner of Catalina State Park
    1080     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash NE of Saddlebrooke
    1100     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.08      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Rd

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030     0.00       0.04       0.04        0.08         1.73      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 mi N of Rice Peak
    1090     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.04         0.75      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.43      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 mi S of Coronado Camp
    1130     0.00       0.04       0.04        0.04         0.31      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140     0.00       0.08       0.28        0.35         2.09      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.71      White Tail                   Catalina Hwy 0.8 mi W of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280     0.00       0.04       0.12        0.16         1.02      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290     0.00       0.04       0.04        0.04         0.47      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 mi SSE of Marshall Gulch

BTW#2, true CMJs (cloud maven juniors) will want to photograph the rain from these shallow clouds, this rare, Hawaiian-like rain event², lining the Catalinas this morning as soon as its light enough. It would be like photographing a parakeet on your bird feeder here in Catalina, one migrating from South America. I think that’s where they come from. Anyway, your cloud-centric friends from other part of the world would be quite interested in seeing your photos of this.

Is the summer rain season over?

No way! (But you already knew that, though it sounds more exciting to put it that way, in the form of a question like the TEEVEE people do)

Now we get into some interesting weather times as we go back into the scattered big thunderstorms feeding on the moist plume that accompanied O. That moist plume will be around for the next few days. These coming days, with their thunder squalls, may well be the most “productive” ones for rain here compared to the piddly output of O here in the Heights. We have upper air goings on that are likely to make storms cluster more into big systems a time or two during the next few days instead just the one over here and over there kind of days, the ones you hope you get lucky on to get truly shafted. So, “fun times at Catalina High” ahead, to paraphrase something.

Yesterday’s clouds

11:15 AM. The look of a stormy sky, Stratus fractus lining Samaniego Ridge, overcast Nimbostratus producing R-- (very light rain). — 11:15 AM. The look of a stormy sky: Stratus fractus lining Samaniego Ridge, orogrpahic Stratocumulus topping the Ridge, overcast Nimbostratus producing R– (very light rain).

4:56 PM. By afternoon the deeper clouds were gone leaving Cumulus, a couple of distant Cumulonimbus clouds with their rain shafts, and an overcast of Stratocumulus or Altocumulus, no precip coming out of them.

6:28 PM. The sunset, while OK, like O was a little disappointing since more clouds could have been lit up by the setting sun but weren’t.

The weather way ahead

Cool weather alert: based on model consistency, which I have already discredited earlier, there are cold snaps now appearing for the end of September and early October. They’ve shown up in a couple of runs now. They have some support in the NOAA spaghetti factory plots.

The End.

—————————–

¹There’s a nice description of “coalision” , the warm rain process not involving ice, in Pruppacher and Klett (1998) if you really want a nice book about cloud microphysics in your library.

²Mostof the rain that falls in Hawaii falls from relatively shallow clouds with tops at temperatures above freezing, no ice involved, contrary to the usual situation here where ice is necessary.

Pretty scenes and a little ice

6:43 PM. Trailing raindrops. The lack of visible ice at cloud top indicates low updrafts, and marginal ice formation, tops just barely reaching the temperature level where ice forms. That level tends to change some each day due to different aerosol and droplet concentrations, but is generally near the -10 C to -12 C level in Arizona. In oceanic regions, where clouds have larger drops and form drizzle and rain before reaching the freezing level, ice first forms in clouds closer to the -5 C level.

“So what gives Mr. Weatherblogperson? Most clouds had no ice and a very, very few did, ones that had some rain fall out of them. Below I have handcrafted a diagram with too many arrows and text on it, just for you, my friend, to help explain the mystery of yesterday’s clouds. I think, or rather hope, the excess text and arrowing will be self-explanatory…..

The balloon sounding data from Tucson yesterday afternoon at 5 PM AST (launched around 3:30 PM, actually).

Overhsooting tops? Here’s the biggest one of the day yesterday. Most however, because they are colder than the environment, collapse quickly and as is often the case in days like yesterday, there is NO overshooting top by the time the ice and rain start to fall out the bottom of the cloud. But, you can bet before that happened there was one.

3:21 PM. Looking SSW toward Tucson at light rainshower with an overshooting top above most tops. Need a fatter arrow. That top is above and beyond the slope down part of Pusch Ridge.

7:01 PM. The large patch in the distance would be Stratocumulus formed by the spreading out of Cumulus cloiuds.

Good muddy morning, Mr. and Mrs. Catalina!

Well, it finally happened, we got shafted royally (as CM likes to say, referring to getting rain shafted) yesterday afternoon with a badly needed 1.09 inches here in Sutherland Heights. More than 2 inches fell nearby, too, such as near the intersection of Hwy 77 and 79! The highlight of the storm was, of course, all of those several close lightning strikes between 2 and 3 PM yesterday. If you weren’t out watching them, here’s one for you, one that popped Lago del Oro. (Mr. Cloud Maven person reminds his reader that during lightning, do not stand outside by a tree outside as here. Hmmmph, a new thought…. Maybe that’s where the expression, “Death warmed over” comes from, a person unlucky enough to have been struck by lightning…and then somebody finds him right away!

2:06 PM. Looking northwest; a literal highlight of the day.

6:17 AM. The remarkable site of a Sc lenticularis stack over Catalina due to strong easterly winds up there. This is more like a scene from the front range of the Rockies in wintertime. It hovered up there in place for a couple of hours before withering. One almost started looking for infamous “rotor cloud”, filled with severe turbulence. You can see this remarkable cloud for summer and the things it did, courtesy of the U of AZ time lapse film for yesterday, a real keeper! Still have that lenticular cloud over and downwind of Ms. Lemmon today. Interesting.

6:23 AM. After a few drops, a little rainbow was seen off to the NW. Quite nice.

7:56 AM. Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-style day, or maybe light steady rains as a disturbance moved toward us, or would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating? For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enought, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT compose of ice crystals, the vaporize pretty heavy overcasts. This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday. The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior intelligence because you can see the sharpness of the cloud features, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain. So, there is hope here, to continue this novella, for a "burn off" in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun's light to be reflected off'n the top. — 7:56 AM. (Caution-long, sleep-inducing caption ahead. If you’re driving you’ll want to pull off the road.) Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-type spring day, or maybe only light steady rains amounting to only a few hundredths or tenths as a disturbance moved toward us. Or, would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating? For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enough, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT composed of ice crystals, to vaporize pretty heavy overcasts. This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday. Doesn’t have to get that hot. The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior cloud intelligence because you can see the sharpness and detail of the tiniest cloud features; they are not “blurry-looking as ice clouds would be, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain. So, there is hope here in this sighting of droplet clouds, to continue this novella, for a “burn off” in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun’s light to be reflected off’n the top, and that’s why they look so dark, a darkness that has been enhanced that bit by a little trick of photography called, “underexposing.” Oh, the cloud type? Stratocumulus stratiformis (the second descriptor because there’s so much of it.)

9:46 AM. Within only an hour or two, the thought of a heavily overcast all day could be jettisoned as the normal mid-morning to mid-day thinning occurred. But, now, would the storms be clustered enough to hit Catalina, or would they end up being too scattered as in the day before where big dumps missed us? It was, however, now in the bag, that huge clouds would rise up later in the day due to some heating. Note Ac lenticular slivers.

1:47 PM. While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures. Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain.graupel that fall from such a cloud. Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning author, in keeping with a mud theme here today. — 1:47 PM. While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures. Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain/graupel that fall from such a cloud, as here. Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast whilst in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning author and friend who likes clouds a lot, in keeping with a “mud” theme here today. Remember, too, you only got a couple of minutes to catch this stage as the large drops and soft fall out at about 15-20 mph.

1:59 PM. Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke. Worried here, since it missed. — 1:59 PM. Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke. Worried here since it missed.

2:00 PM. More rain and thunder appeared upwind on the Catalinas leading to renewed hope. In fact, the whole sky at this point seemed to be turning into one huge Cumulonimbus. It was great!

3:27 PM. An inch had fallen and it looked like we were going have a lake side property. Next time will get kayak out! Sometimes toads erupt from the earth when this happens, but I guess they like it darker than this.

4:01 PM. One of the prettiest sites after our major rains is this line of Stratus fractus clouds that cuddle up against Samaniego Ridge. Yesterday was no exception, and it was another memorable site of the day.

The weather ahead

Well, drying. Unfortunately we’re in for another long dry spell likely beginning after today. Hoping we can squeeze out one more day with rain this afternoon. Today’s storms will move from an unusual summertime direction from the south-southwest and southwest, so you;ll want to be watching toward the Tucson Mountains to Twin Peaks for stuff that might come in in the afternoon, more of a fall pattern as the winds are shifting aloft today to from the SW. The Catalinas get active with Cu and Cumulonimbus piling up by late morning, but they drift toward the north and not over us as they did yesterday, all this from the U of AZ model run from 11 PM AST last night.

April showers and why

From your Pima County ALERT gauges, these 24 h totals ending at 3 AM this morning (covers the whole storm):

Gauge                        24                Name                        Location
    ID#      minutes    hours
    —-     —-       —-        —-       —-         —-       —————–            ———————
Catalina Area
    1010         0.04      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke
    1020       0.20      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle
    1040                   0.08      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050             0.20      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap
    1060         0.55      Pig Spring                      approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap
    1070         0.08      Cargodera Canyon             northeast corner of Catalina State Park
    1080           0.08      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke
    1100             0.04      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030         0.75      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak
    1090       0.00      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110         0.75      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp
    1130         0.24      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140         0.83      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150            0.12      White Tail                       Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280          0.20      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290          0.24      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch

The absence of precip at Mt. Lemmon is not because the storm went around it, but rather because it fell as snow.

Here in the Heights, 0.08 inches fell between 1 PM and 3 PM. Clouds accompanied the rain.

But what kind? That’s why I am here for you. See way below.

First, some techno-babble. Rain was an on and off event for Catalina and environs in the models run after run. A forecaster friend sent many e-mails that went from “looks good for rain” here, and just about as many that said, “doesn’t look good for rain.” In fact, the (WRF-GFS) model run for just 12 h before it rained, had no rain here, but just a bit to the north. What happened?

Extra sag.

Here’s the amount of trough “sag” (“amplitude”, as we would say) over Arizona predicted just 14 h before it started raining in Catalina yesterday afternoon:

12 forecast valid for 11 AM yesterday morning. Note that the wind maximum is NORTH of Catalina, and over central AZ.

Areas of rain forecast to fall in the 6 h ending at 11 AM AST yesterday morning. Rain just a tad north of Catalina.

A computer analysis of the actual winds at 5 PM AST yesterday showing that the trough had more amplitude (sag, droop, etc.) as it crossed Arizona yesterday than was forecast just a day or so in advance. That meant we in Catalina were more embedded in the deeper, and colder clouds with this trough. The jet stream circumcribes those clouds during the cool season here in AZ and most of the SW US. See rain totals at top of blog.

In case you think I am lying again, just because I am a meteorologist and say a lot of wrong things, below is the REAL map for last evening with wind data from rawinsonde balloons on it.

From the Huskies, this 500 mb map over satellite imagery. Strongest winds in our trough run from San Diego, Tuscon, to El Paso, with the tightest spacing of contours and strongest winds at this level in extreme northern Mexico

I hope you’re happy now.

Here’s what the temperature did as the windshift and rain began, in case you missed it:

Yesterday's temperature trace for Sutherland Heights. — Yesterday’s temperature trace for Sutherland Heights.

Yesterday’s clouds

The sequence: cloudy, sunny “sucker hole” (one of Biblical proportions), cloudy, raining, sunny, dusty.

6:06 AM. Altostratus and Cirrus combine to produce a gray sky. — 6:06 AM. Altostratus and Cirrus combine to produce a gray start to the day.

9:44 AM. Lower level moisture layer produces an Altocumulus lenticularis just beyond Pusch Ridge. Seems sky will cloud up real good at this point.

Also at 9:44 AM. Looks real bad off to the N, too, in dense Altostratus and lower Sc or Ac.

10:57 AM. Sucker hole! Its real sunny, warming up. You're thinking as you ride your horse as I was, "What a bad weatherman we have! Said would be windy, cold, and might rain, and yet here is the sun and warmth. What a bad weatherman we have!" — 10:57 AM. Sucker hole! Its real sunny, warming up. You’re thinking as you ride your horse as I was, “What a bad weatherman we have! Said would be windy, cold, and might rain, and yet here is the sun and warmth. What a bad weatherman we have!” (Weatherman is laughing in the background.)

11:44 AM. Sucker hole starts to fill in... Haha! — 11:44 AM. Sucker hole starts to fill in… Haha! “Dreamer” is the horse there.

12:10 PM Sucker hole filling in! — 12:10 PM Sucker hole filling in more and more! You’re starting to feel real bad that you made fun of your weatherman, but he’s still laughing at you.

1:17 PM. Rain showing up to west-southwest, upstream. Wind shift hits and ten degree cool off begins. You're glad you finished your horseback ride none too soon. — 1:17 PM. Rain showing up to west-southwest, upstream. Wind shift hits and ten degree cool off begins. You’re glad you finished your horseback ride none too soon.

3:54 PM. A remarkable thing is happening. While there's plenty of dust in the air. it is also still raining slightly, almost from drizzle-sized drops. Eyeballig the cloud depth of the backside of the raining clouds from which the drops MAY have fallen from, CM opines that these drops are comprised of melted aggregates of needle or sheath ice crystals that were, as single crystals before aggregating as they do when in high concentrations, were really in high concentrations in those clouds, implying a strong ice multiplication phenomenon was at work. Was really a weird scene to have so much SUN and drops falling from clear sky overhead. I would be very proud of you if you noticed this few minute event at the end of our little rain. — 3:54 PM. A remarkable thing is happening. While there’s plenty of dust in the air. it is also still raining slightly, almost from drizzle-sized drops. Eyeballing the cloud depth at the backside of the rainband clouds from which the drops MAY have fallen from, your CM opined that these drops originated with melted aggregates of needle or sheath ice crystals that, as single crystals before aggregating, were in high concentrations (10s to 100s per liter) in those clouds, implying that a strong ice multiplication phenomenon was at work inside them. Was really a weird scene to have so much SUN and drops falling from clear sky overhead. I would be very proud of you if you noticed this few-minute event at the end of our little rain.

Rawinsonde balloon temperature and dewpoint profile near the time that it rained in clear air from the backside of our rainband. As you can see, cloud tops were around -10 C or a little cooler, pretty warm for raining clouds here. The main part of the rainband likely had somewhat cooler cloud tops. Thought you like to know. This sounding supports the idea that an ice multiplication process was at work, at least on the back shelf of these clouds that rained. I wanted to confirm prior ground speculations with more speculations from the sounding at rain time, though it was launched around 3:30 PM AST way over there by Davis Monthan Airbase. Wondering now if I will finish this blog today….

4:34 PM. Shelf of rainband exits the Catalinas. Nice lighting, though.

6:32 PM. While the rain may have washed a lot of dust out of the air, more dust invaded the area as soon as the rain ended.

The End, finally.

The cloud streets of Oro Valley

3:53 PM. Three little rows of clouds are emitted from the Tortolita Mountains to the west, drift over Oro Valley. These kinds of “streets” are there, and usually emit form the same spots, every time we have a moist, but shallow layer of air, and there’s a bit of wind. We met men would call this situation a “cloud-capped boundary layer” where air rising to form these clouds doesn’t get any higher, usually due to a stable layer like an inversion. The visual divergence, where one of the streets looks to be going to the left, and the one on the right going to the right, is due to perspective. Cloud streets are virtually parallel to one another. The flow at cloud level was toward the photographer, me. You got Cirrostratus on top of these Cumulus/Stratocumulus clouds. (Where clouds like these are more isolated, we call them, Cumulus, when the same clouds group together into masses, we start calling them Stratocumulus. Its kind of a fuzzy area in our fuzzy classification system (see Catalina cloud maven’s cloud classification article in the Encyclopedia of the Atmospheric Sciences, 6 vols., yours for $2258.20, “only one left in stock”, Amazon says, and the great Judy Curry, is Ed.–better get it before its gone!

5:03 PM. That little zone on the Tortolitas is still pumping out the clouds. Compare the back edge of this larger mass (which now would be Stratocumulus) with the origin point of the previous photo. The cloud street is the one on the left that goes off the screen. — 5:03 PM. That little zone (center, here) on the Tortolitas is still pumping out the clouds. Compare the back edge of this larger mass (which now would be Stratocumulus) with the origin point of the previous photo. The cloud street is the one on the left that goes off the screen.

5:32 PM. That Cirrostratus steadily thickened as the afternoon wore on, almost making it look like another storm was moving in. Cumulus filled in, too, becoming large areas of Stratocumulus, adding to the anticipation of a rain. — 5:32 PM. That high Cirrostratus layer steadily thickened, becoming Altostratus here, as the afternoon wore on. Seemed like another storm was moving in. Those isolated Cumulus clouds and their “streets” filled in, too, becoming large, dark areas of Stratocumulus, adding to the false anticipation of a rain as a storm skirted Arizona.

The weather way ahead after the upcoming heat wave

I have been staring at this weather Rorschach test for a few hours now, and there’s not much to say about it, except that there seems to be two eyeballs near the North Pole, and maybe one of the yellow lines forming a jaw down there toward Greenland, possibly a tilted drivers cap toward Russia.

Clearly the global patterns are “unsettled”, to use one of our favorite forecasting words. (“We will have ‘unsettled’ weather over the next few days”, as one might say in Seattle most of the year.)

Below, “troughing” is suggested in the SW, but not much. The Asian trough, anchored along the coast of Asia, is shown moving offshore here as it should during the spring, and that in turns helps form a trough downwind in the SW US, as we see happen in the spring over the long term (in climatology). So we can only hang our hat on climo, that these uncertain times shown below in the plot below will resolve into something better than more drought.

We can also ponder the larger question of, “How’s come we can put a man on the moon and various space junk on Mars and can’t forecast the weather beyond about a week?” Its crazy.

Or even the vastly larger question concerning chaos theory, a theory that rests on the phenomenon that small perturbations in the initial state of unstable systems are able to make huge changes over time, thus:

“Will a space probe, going off into deep space, as is happening now, an artifact that’s not supposed to be there, unsettle the unstable Universe?”

Pretty thoughtful blog today, I thought. Usually don’t go this deep, but it just kind of happened.

The End, or is it?

Great expectations of mice and men…

…weren’t quite realized¹ in the rain totals that our storm produced; the very exciting prediction of several inches of water content foretold for Ms. Lemmon didn’t happen (see ALERT gauge listing below, saved for pretty much the maximum 24 h period of our storm.)

Still, rains were substantial, the occasional morning lightning was great, and in a few places in PC (Pima County) the rain total did exceed 2 inches, with amounts of an inch and a half in the Cat Mountains. Good, better, but not as “great” as in expectations, except maybe at Park Tank, Reddington area, where the ALERT gauge says, 3.78 inches. Also, if you didn’t catch it, a stupendous sunrise and sunset; see pics WAY below.

Here in Sutherland Heights, 0.60 inches fell, by far most of that during the middle of last night when strong storms bounded in and abounded all over eastern AZ with a final rainband. Here’s what that 3rd and final rain “act” looked like on radar and in the satellite imagery last night (very exciting weather shape, BTW; “the curl”):

Radar and sat imagery from IPS MeteoStar for 1:15 AM. The heaviest rain fell just to the north of us. This “curl” configuration indicates that a potent part of the trough was passing by, causing clouds to explode upward from the tip of the “tail” near Rocky Point on their way to the NE from there. Got even bigger as they passed by us and headed toward Miami-Globe area. You can also see the three bands of rain that affected us, more or less still intact.

              Precipitation Report for the following time periods ending at: 03:59:00 03/02/14 (also learn where stuff is)
                       (data updated every 15 minutes)
              Data is preliminary and unedited.
              —- indicates missing data

    Gauge    15         1           3          6            24         Name                        Location
    ID#      minutes    hour        hours      hours        hours
    —-     —-       —-        —-       —-         —-       —————–            ———————
Catalina Area
    1010     0.00       0.04       0.16        0.28         0.43      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke
    1020     0.00       0.00       0.24        0.43         0.67      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle
    1040     0.00       0.00       0.16        0.31         0.51      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.28         0.47      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap
    1060     0.00       0.00       0.35        0.55         0.83      Pig Spring                   approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap
    1070     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      Cargodera Canyon             northeast corner of Catalina State Park
    1080     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.24         0.35      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke
    1100     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.31      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.04         0.43      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak
    1090     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.39      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110     0.00       0.00       0.39        0.71         1.02      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp
    1130     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.08         1.46      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.30      White Tail                   Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.20         1.34      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.12         1.54      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch

Santa Catalina Foothills
    2090     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.75      TV @ Guest Ranch             Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Guest Ranch
    2100     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.16         0.43      DEQ Swan                     Swan Road at Calle del Pantera
    2160     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.31      Sabino @ USFS Dam            Sabino Creek at USFS Dam
    2170     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.59      Ventana @ Sunrise            Ventana Canyon Wash at Sunrise Road
    2190     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.75      Al-Marah                     near El Marah on Bear Canyon Road
    2200     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.71      AC Wash @ TV Bridge          Agua Caliente Wash at Tanque Verde Road
    2210     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.79      Catalina Boosters            Houghton Road 0.1 miles south of Catalina Highway
    2220     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.83      Agua Caliente Park           Agua Caliente Park
    2230     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.79      El Camino Rinconado          El Camino Rinconado 0.5 miles north of Reddington Road
    2240     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         0.91      Molino Canyon                Mt Lemmon Highway near Mile Post 3
    2390     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.39      Finger Rock @ Skyli          Finger Rock Wash at Sunrise Road

Redington Pass Area
    2020     0.00       0.08       0.55        0.67         3.78      Park Tank                    Redington Pass, 0.8 miles south of Park Tank
    2030     0.00       0.04       0.28        0.39         2.09      Italian Trap                 Redington Pass, 0.7 miles east southeast of Italian Trap Tank
    2040     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         1.14      White Tank                   Redington Road near White Tank
    2050     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         1.14      Bellota Ranch Road           Bellota Ranch Road near Redington Road
    2070     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.24         0.87      TV @ Chiva Tank              Tanque Verde Wash 0.5 miles south of Chiva Tank
    2080     0.00       0.04       0.12        0.16         0.87      Alamo Tank                   Redington Road near Alamo Well

Rincon Mountains
4100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 1.06 Manning Camp Manning Camp in the Rincon Mountains
4110 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.08 0.47 Rincon Creek Rincon Creek at X-9 Ranch

Greater Tucson
    2110     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.71      TV @ TV Road                 Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Road
    2120     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.59      TV @ Sabino Cyn Rd           Tanque Verde Wash at Sabino Canyon Road
    2300     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.16         0.63      Well D-37                    Rosewood Street west of Harrison Road
    2310     0.00       0.04       0.08        0.16         0.67      Well E-23                    Rancho El Mirador north of Broadway Boulevard
    2320     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.47      Beverly Well C-51            Beverly Avenue at Hawthorne Street
    2330     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         0.51      Kolb Boosters                Kolb Road at Golf Links
    2350     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.39      Rillito @ Dodge              Rillito Creek at Dodge Boulevard
    2360     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.20         0.43      Rillito @ La Cholla          Rillito Creek at La Cholla Boulevard
    2370     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.28         0.63      Alamo @ Glenn                Alamo Wash at Glenn Street
    2380     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.35      DEQ Ruthraff                 Ruthrauff Road at La Cholla Boulevard
    4160     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.55      E-8                          Irvington Road near Pantano Road
    4180     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.12         0.51      Pantano @ Houghton           Pantano Wash at Houghton Road
    6040     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.04         0.43      Santa Cruz@Valencia          Santa Cruz River at Valencia Road
    6180     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.39      ArroyoChico@Cherry           Arroyo Chico at Cherry Street
    6190     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.59      Arroyo Chico@Randol          Arroyo Chico at Randolph Way
    6230     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.55      Ajo Detention Basin          Tucson Diversion Channel at Ajo Detention Basin
    6240     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.12         0.63      DEQ Cntry Clb                Country Club Road near Columbia Street
    6250     0.04       0.04       0.16        0.20         0.75      Craycroft@Golf Link          Craycroft Road at Golf Links Road
    6260     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         0.55      Tucson Electric Pow          Irvington Road at Belvedere Avenue
    6270     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         0.59      Pima Air Museum              Valencia Road at Pima Air Museum

Southern Tucson Area
    6200     0.00       0.04       0.20        0.20         0.67      Summit Elementary            Summit Street at Epperson Lane
    6210     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.59      Franco @ Swan                Franco Wash at Swan Road
    6220     0.00       0.00       0.20        0.20         0.83      PC Fairgrounds               Houghton Road at Dawn Road
    6280     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         0.63      Wilmot                       Wilmot Road 2 miles south of Old Vail Connection Road
    6290     0.00       0.04       0.55        0.55         1.42      Corona                       Sahuarita Road at Sewage Treatment Plant

Altar/Avra Valley Area Area
    6370     0.00       0.04       0.16        0.31         1.77      Arivaca                      Las Guijas Mountains near Arivaca
    6380     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.31         1.10      Altar Wash @ Hwy 28          Altar Wash at Highway 286
    6410     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.24         0.59      Diamond Bell                 Diamond Bell near Stagecoach Road at Killarney Avenue
    6420     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.31      Brawley@Three Point          Brawley Wash at Highway 86
    6430     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.28      Vahala Park                  Wade Road at Los Reales
    6440     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.20         0.24      Brawley@Milewide             Brawley Wash at Milewide Road
    6450     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.16         0.43      Hilltop Rd                   Hilltop Road at Riveria Road
    6460     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.28         0.35      Picture Rocks CC             Picture Rocks Community Center
    6470     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.35      Michigan @ Calgary           Michigan Street at Calgary Avenue

Marana/Oro Valley Area
    1200     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.20         0.28      CDO @ Ina Road               Cañada Del Oro Wash at Ina Road
    1230     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.24         0.31      Oro Valley PW                Calle Concordia at Calle El Milagro
    1240     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.28         0.35      Moore Rd                     Moore Road at La Cholla
    1250     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.24         0.35      Pima Wash @ Ina              Pima Wash at Ina Road
    1260     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.28         0.43      Big Wash                     Big Wash at Rancho Vistoso Boulevard
    1270     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.31      CDO @ Big Wash               Cañada Del Oro Wash near Oracle Road
    6020     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.24         0.35      Santa Cruz @ Ina             Santa Cruz River at Ina Road
    6110     0.04       0.04       0.08        0.24         0.24      Avra Valley Airpark          Santa Cruz River 0.5 miles east of Sanders Road

Vail Area
    4220     0.00       0.00       0.16        0.16         0.79      Rancho Del Lago              approximately 1.8 miles northwest of Vail
    4250     0.00       0.04       0.39        0.43         0.94      Pantano @ Vail               Pantano Wash 1.5 miles southeast of Colossal Cave Road
    4270     0.04       0.04       0.24        0.24         1.06      Salcido Place                6 miles north-northwest of Mescal
    4280     Site temporarily removed due to road construction        Cienega Crk @ I-10           Cienega Creek at Interstate 10
    4290     0.04       0.04       0.20        0.20         0.91      Mescal                       2 miles northwest of Mescal
    4310     0.00       0.00       0.55        0.55         1.22      Davidson Canyon              Davidson Canyon Wash 0.25 miles south of Interstate 10
    4320     0.00       0.04       0.12        0.12         0.43      Empire Peak                  Empire Peak
    4410     0.00       0.04       0.04        0.04         0.75      Haystack Mtn.                Haystack Mountain

Green Valley Area
    6050     0.00       0.00       0.47        0.67         1.61      Santa Cruz@Continen          Santa Cruz River at Continental Road
    6060     0.00       0.08       0.16        0.20         1.22      Santa Cruz@Conoa             Santa Cruz River at Elephant Head Road
    6080     0.04       0.08       0.12        0.12         1.34      Santa Cruz@Tubac             Santa Cruz River at Tubac
    6310     0.00       0.00       0.20        0.24         0.98      Keystone Peak                Keystone Peak
    6320     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         1.18      Tinaja Ranch                 near Caterpillar Proving Ground
    6330     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         1.10      Anamax                       Mission Road north of Continental Road
    6350     0.00       0.04       0.12        0.12         1.18      Elephant Head Butte          near Elephant Head Butte
    6390     0.04       0.20       0.35        0.35         2.80      Florida Canyon               Florida Canyon Work Center

There were numerous storm totals over 2 inches throughout the State, mountain ones that can be seen in the USGS rolling 24 h archive here (amounts will diminish due to the continuous updating that goes on, as with the PC ALERT gauges), and in the rainlog network from the U of AZ, and in the CoCoRahs reports for Arizona, the latter two sites do not have complete 24 h totals ending at 7 AM AST until several hours after 7 AM AST.

Southern California rains exceeded 10 inches in several mountain locals over the past few days, almost 14 inches at one mountain site in Ventura County. So, SC’ans are quite happy, today anyway.

——————————————–

Wow; those sunset clouds!

Good grief, there was quite the spectacular mammatus display late yesterday. Even resembled the great mammatus ahead of the El Reno tornado in OK last May. Then, as the sun set in a brief clearing to the west, the downward protruding bulges became lit, and the yellow-orange color of the fading sun light (as it passed through a great distance through the lower atmosphere and the shorter wavelengths of blues get scattered out) lit up the ground and foothills of the Catalinas. It was almost too gaudy to be real and not “shopped” as we say today.

6:51 AM. Sun burst on Stratocumulus. — 6:51 AM. Sun burst on Stratocumulus bases.

4:22 PM. Incoming Cumulonimbus mammatus. The core of this shower was far to the S beyond Pusch Ridge.

6:11 PM. Rainbow enhances sky mammatus drama.

6:16 PM. Mammatus bulges down out of "Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus." — 6:16 PM. Mammatus bulges down out of “Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus.”

Expecting lots of nice looking Cumulus today, maybe some ice/virga, but no measurable rain.

The End

——————————-

¹Titular nod to one of the great novel of our time, written some decades ago,

Smoothies

7:46 AM. Stratocumulus lenticularis castellanus (has spires), an oxymoronic cloud. You would call this Stratocumulus because its low enough to top Ms. Mt. Lemmon. While some turrets can be seen, others are causing shadows. Have never really seen something quite like this and I look a LOT.

10:35 AM. Stratocumulus lenticularis on the Catalinas. The moist air is resisting like mad being lifted over the Catalinas. Oddly, once condensation occurs a bit of heat is released and on the left you see that it was enough heat to allow a Cumulus turret to rise out of the smooth cloud. This is pretty darn rare site, seeing such smoothness AND Cumulus rising out of the same deck.

3:46 PM. Cumulus humilis, no ice, except in those Cirrus clouds on the right.

5:28 PM. Sun dog, or mock sun, also “parhelia” in natural Cirrus and in a contrail. The parhelia is likely brighter in the contrail since the simple hexagonal (six-sided) plate-like ice crystals that cause parhelias are smaller and more numerous in the early stages of a contrail.

Today’s clouds

Much like two days ago. Higher based Stratocumulus/Altocumulus with patches of heavy virga and sprinkles around.
Back edge of the cloud mass times in around 2-4 PM. Might be a little early for a great sunset, but just in case, have camera ready.

Looking farther ahead….

Still mainly dry through the next two weeks, though close call on the 7th, a situation that appears much like today, That close rain call NOW appears in both the Canadian and US WRF-GFS models (yesterday they were vastly different). So, with that, a chance of a few hundredths here after nightfall on the 6th into the morning of the 7th.

Spaghetti, in a dismal series of plots, also shows little hope for rain here through the 20th. So, even with mistakes in the initial analyses, deliberate ones to see how different the forecast maps turn out, we still can’t exit our drought! Oh, me. Poor wildflowers.

The End (did you see the giant mammatus/testicularis to the north this morning? If not, here it is:

7:15 AM today. Altostratus opacus mammatus.

Interesting sights; rain still on the Catalina event horizon

Too dark for the best sight, our 14-year old flat-coated retriever mix dog, at first seeming to be walking slowly up the dirt driveway in back of the house with another dog. I could just make out two outlines. I wondered whose dog had gotten out and was in our backyard? Moving closer, I see that our dog is walking side-by-side up the dirt driveway, not with another dog, but with a javelina, like they’re buddies! Then two more javelinas came out of the brush to join the slow walk uphill forming a peccary herd containing a dog! After about 10 yards of this group slowly ascending the driveway toward me, the javelinas turned off into the brush. Too dark for photos; dang.

—————————

Next, its raining in Tucson and I am eastbound on Prince Avenue about to turn left on to Oracle. I was feeling good that its raining downtown, and it was not just here in Catalina that rain had fallen. A car swerves across a lane in front of me to turn left on Oracle, and it turns out to be the best car ever evaluated by Consumer Reports! Its the all electric Tesla Model S!

I am not a car buff, but this was a very great sighting for anyone knowing much about the direction cars are taking! Its made by a tiny company in Fremont, California. No gas used of course, its not a hybrid; you have to find a charging station. But those stations are increasing pretty fast. You can go about 200 miles or so on a charge.

Anyway, if you have $90,000 or so, I think you should buy one right away. No, really. It would be worth it to be an “early adopter” and drive the market forward so that the price descends rapidly.

Yesterday morning in the rain, on Prince Avenue, a Tesla pulls in front of me! From the "Not-taken-while-driving" collection; this photo yours for $11,000. — Yesterday morning in the rain, on Prince Avenue, a Tesla pulls in front of me! And, like me, they’re from Washington!
From the “Not-taken-while-driving” collection; this photo entitled, “Tesla in the Tucson Rain,” yours for $11,000 due to rain falling in Tucson simultaneously with a Tesla Model S sighting, an extremely rare combination of sights that your friends will envy.

————————

Sports AND clouds….

The Seattle Seahawks are in the Superbowl today. The city where I worked is going bonkers over this because besides the team, they really like some of the players, like Russell Wilson whose really too small to be an NFL QB, and hasn’t been in jail ever. The entire city has come together, including liberals and conservatives to root on the Seahawks! Reminds one of the afterglow of the first Gulf War when Arab cars were sporting American flags!

Cells in the rain

7:50 AM. Rainsahft indicates a buildup in the tops above. These were the kinds of cells that moved over Catalina during the early morning hours. Likely would have looked like soft Cumulonimbus clouds if on top in an aircraft. — 7:50 AM. This well-defined rainsahft indicates a buildup in the tops above. These were the kinds of cells that moved over Catalina during the early morning hours. Likely would have looked like soft Cumulonimbus clouds if on top in an aircraft.

9:43 AM. Reflected light from the rain drops lingering on this blue palo verde gave it something of a lighted Christmas tree look.

10:44 AM. As the sun launches convective currents on a breezy day, and with some resistance to cloud top heights, lines of clouds form, something we call a "cloud street." This one came all the way from the Tucson Mountains to the SSW of us. When showers start to fall from these clouds, the downdrafts in them usually dissipate the line and it become chaotic, as happened over downtown Tucson later that morning. — 10:44 AM. As the sun launches convective currents and Cumulus clouds on a breezy day, and with some resistance to cloud top heights due to a stable layer, lines of clouds form, something we call a “cloud street.” This one came all the way from the Tucson Mountains to the SSW of us to just about over Catalina. When showers start to fall from clouds lined up like this (because the tops have gotten high enough to form ice), the downdrafts in those showers usually dissipate the line and it becomes pretty chaotic and broken up into cells, as happened over downtown Tucson later that morning.

5:26 PM. By late afternoon there were some fabulous lighting scenes on the Catalinas, here looking NE toward Charouleau Gap. — 5:26 PM. By late afternoon there were some fabulous lighting scenes under the Stratocumulus clouds on the Catalinas, here looking NE toward Charouleau Gap.

The weather ahead…

Looks like a minor rain in the works for Monday into Tuesday evening. Probably will begin in the mid-day hours and probably will only produce a few hundredths to a tenths is all here in Catalina. There’ll be more snow in the mountains, so that will be good to keep some of the creeks running.

The following storm, the one that looked substantial, has been diminishing in the model runs of the past day or so. Dang. The Enviro Can mod has given up completely on rain here in this trough that moves in on Thursday and Friday, the 7th and 8th. Then, voila, the US one began to follow suit, though showing a less bountiful rain, but at least still has some beginning Friday the 7th and then has it dribbling into Saturday, the 8th (this from the 11 PM AST global run from last night). Looking more like maybe a quarter inch of rain here in that one, but very dicey now in view of those Canadian calculations. Sometimes their model does better than ours.

Still looking like a LONG, warm dry spell after next Saturday….

The End.

Sprinkles and gray; not a great day

Thought the overall clearing that occurred at around 8 PM yesterday afternoon was going to be much earlier. So kind of disappointed there, as all of us weatherfolk are when things don’t go right. I thought I was going to see some nice small to moderate Cu amid big sunbreaks during the afternoon. Instead, that incoming Altocu-Stratocu deck from a mostly wasted Pac NW storm had more in it than it looked like on the sat images. That’s what passed over and occluded the forecast. Still, there was quite an afternoon clearing at one point, if a brief one….. So, I guess I was partly right after all.

3:15 PM. Giant clearing passes over Oro Valley as clouds beging to breakup. (Photo not zoomed or cropped?) — 3:15 PM. Giant clearing passes over Oro Valley and Catalina as clouds begin to breakup. (Photo not zoomed or cropped at all in a cheap attempt to exaggerate a clearing?) ((By putting a question mark, I am not actually lying right out.))

On the other hand, I do get to report a trace of rain in the past 24 h today, which is always good. Hope you saw it, too, to put a bright spot on an otherwise dismal day.

That incoming deck that piled on top of the residual Stratocu here that was topping Samaniego Ridge, was cold enough to produce virga, and some it fell into the clouds below which allowed it to reach the ground rather than dry up.

Also, some of those lower clouds built upward into that higher deck and developed ice, one produced quite a shaft briefly on the Catalinas. That was the surprise of the day, since it appeared to be too stable for that kind of development.

Mods had no rain around here, too, so they’re a little red-faced, as well.

Here are a few other shots from your cloud day:

8:51 AM. This is a common cloud scene that we have here when moist air is being lifted up as it approaches the Catalinas and moves upward in the slot between those mountains and the Tortolitas. The back edge, shown here, is moving toward you, but either never gets here, or takes a lot longer than it should. The reason is that cloud is forming on the back edge. Sometimes when this happens and you see a big clearing that you think will get to you and it doesn't, its called a "sucker hole." — 8:51 AM. This is a common cloud scene that we have here when moist air is being lifted up as it approaches the Catalinas and moves upward in the slot between those mountains and the Tortolitas. The back edge, shown here, is moving toward you, but either never gets here, or takes a lot longer than it should. The reason is that cloud is forming on the back edge. Sometimes when this happens and you see a big clearing that you think will get to you and it doesn’t, its called a “sucker hole.”

10:57 AM. Here, with Big Blue, I was thinking that the clouds were breaking up, and going to be nice, scattered Cumulus, and the forecast I made one of the great ones of our time. Middle level clouds rolled over the top of these and put the kabash of that! — 10:57 AM. Here, with Big Blue, I was thinking that the clouds were breaking up, and it was going to be nice, scattered Cumulus, day, and the forecast I made early yesterday morning would turn out to be one of the great ones of our time. Middle level clouds rolled over the top of the lower Cumulus and put the kabosh on that! In a way, it was like that big meltdown in the last two minutes by the Washington State Cougars in their bowl game against the Colorado State Rams yesterday when the “Cougs” were leading by 15 points at that time and thought they had a bowl win with so little time left. But no. Like yesterday’s cloud forecast, the win went into the spin cycle at the drain and then down the tube. The writer worked in the Washington Huskies Weather Department, the Cougs in-state rival, but during bowl season the proper rooting etiquette for fhose teams in your league, the Pac 12.

1:31 PM. A real shaft on the Catalinas! This was the last thing I expected to see. Such a shaft indicates that the top of this cloud got much higher (likely a few thousand feet) than any other tops yesterday, likely poking up through the higher layer of Stratocumulus clouds. — 1:31 PM. Surprise of the day. A real shaft on the Catalinas! This was the last thing I expected to see yesterday, you, too. I’m sure. Such a shaft indicates that the top of this cloud got higher (likely just a few thousand feet) than any other tops yesterday, mounding above the tops of the higher layer of Stratocumulus clouds.

2:43 PM. A prototypical shot for pretty much the whole day. — 2:43 PM. A prototypical shot for pretty much the whole day, one in a Seattle motif; scattered to broken coverage in lower Cumulus and Stratocumulus, with another layer of Stratocumulus on top of the lower clouds.

Sun was able to sun behind the backedge of that Sc cloud deck and produced some spectacular lighting on Sam Ridge.

5:21 PM. "Cow and sunset"; $1200. — 5:21 PM. “Cow and sunset”;
$1200.

The weather WAY ahead, that is, after the long dry spell now starting…

Still looking at storms passing through here as December winds down and during the first week of January, likely with cold, possibly exceptional cold, in the West. “Stay tuned”, of course.

Clouds without comment

Remember Consumer Reports, “Quotes Without Comment” page? Well, I am lying like anything here¹.

Only ONE comment today (I’m lying again), but its about wind today. It will pick up suddenly from the north later this morning or in the early afternoon, and be gusty and cold. We here in Catalina get more of this north wind than, say, TUS, which is blocked from this wind by the Catalina Mountains. A big high is bulging into Utah, a state north of us, that’s why.

Next rain chances, a weak one late Wednesday or Thursday, and a stronger one around the 20-22nd, the latter as spaghetti has been suggesting for some time now.

Your cloud day below in case you were inside watching football television all day:

7:03 AM. Note light rainshowers on north horizon. Only a trace here.

9:14 AM. Looks pretty much the same. Hmmm. That's a comment. When it comes to clouds, I guess I just can't shut up, even when they're boring. — 9:14 AM. Looks pretty much the same. Hmmm. That’s a comment. When it comes to clouds, I guess I just can’t shut up, even when they’re boring Stratocumulus.

9:15 AM. Only a minute later! Yes, a "concerto in gray" yesterday, and I want to make sure you see all of it. — 9:15 AM. Only a minute later! Yes, a “Concerto in Gray” yesterday, to allude to some music that has not yet been written (perhaps it will be one day by a depressed composer), and I want to make sure you see all of the gray we had. Gray was my favorite color in elementary school! THought you’d like to know that. Man, after a second cup of coffee I am just exploding with interesting information!

11:49. Still "Overcast in Stratocumulus"; could be the second movement in "Concerto in Gray." Signs of break up here. another potential — 11:49. Still “Overcast in Stratocumulus”; could be the second movement in “Concerto in Gray.” Signs of break up here.

11:50 AM. Some of you are dropping away like this horse. Can't take it anymore. Well, I demand a million dollars to stop blogging! — 11:50 AM. Some of you are dropping away like Jake the horse. Can’t take it anymore. Well, I demand a million dollars to stop blogging! Note, however, that “Dreamer” the horse is still paying attention, setting a good example.

3:26 PM. Skies eventually opened up and our pretty deep blue skies returned amid the small Cumulus and shallow Stratocumulus, a rousing, happy finale to our "Concerto in Gray." — 3:26 PM. Skies eventually opened up and our pretty deep blue skies returned amid the small Cumulus and shallow Stratocumulus, a rousing, happy finale to our “Concerto in Gray.”

3:58 PM. "Frosty the Lemmon"; could be a popular Christmas song. If you stepped away from football television for even a minute, you might have noticed this interesting look on Ms. Lemmon. This frosty look is almost certainly due to "riming" on the trees, the collection of supercooled cloud drops in clouds that are not snowing much or at all. Substantial water can be collected by trees on mountains when supercooled clouds envelope them. Hope that science not wasn't piling on the boring for you. Piling on can be a penalty in football if it happens late like in this blog. I demand two millions dollars to stop blogging! — 3:58 PM. “Frosty the Lemmon”; could be a popular Christmas song. If you stepped away from football television for even a minute, you might have noticed this interesting look on Ms. Lemmon. This frosty look is almost certainly due to “riming” on the trees, the collection of supercooled cloud drops by the trees in windy clouds that are not snowing much or at all envelope them. The liquid drops hit and freeze and buildup on them, much like airframe icing. Substantial water can be collected by trees on mountains when supercooled clouds envelope them in windy conditions like yesterday. Hope that bit of science wasn’t piling on the boring for you. “Piling on” can be a penalty in football if it happens late, like in this blog. I demand TWO millions dollars to stop blogging!

5:20 PM. OK, some ice cream on your plain oatmeal; a pertty sunset, pastel Altocumulus above (gray, of course) Stratocumulus.

The End, at last. You can wake up now, horsey!

————————
¹It comes pretty easily to weather forecasters, but you do have to speak with conviction; a certain degree of authenticity has to be imparted when lying. :}