The weather ahead

Having an effect after all; sunsets, clouds, and the weather ahead

I was driving down in Tucson yesterday, kind of moping around about all the blogs I had done with little or no interest. You may recall from a blog I did a few months ago I reported to my reader that a business site had evaluated the worth of my blog, and due to the amount of traffic it brought, it was found to be worth $25.

But then as I rounded Campbell and headed northbound from Fort Lowell, I saw this sign exhorting fellow Tucsonians to watch clouds! My mood brightened. Maybe there were a few out there that I had affected after all; a whole cloud watching movement had started! I did see, however, that since the sign maker was wondering whether there were clouds in the sky or not, and there was a lot of Cirrus overhead, I saw that I had more work to do.

This sign seen near Campbell and just north of Fort Lowell yesterday afternoon.

Yesterday’s clouds

9:03 AM. Cirrus fibratus in rolls, undulations due to waves in the atmosphere associated with the strong jet stream above us. — 9:03 AM. Cirrus fibratus in rolls, undulations, due to waves in the atmosphere associated with the strong jet stream above us.

In case you were asleep, watching Monday night fubball, and NOT watching clouds, here is yesterday’s magnificent sunset as the sun underlit those dense Altostratus clouds that developed from thinner Cirrus ones during the afternoon and evening.

Today, more mid-level clouds and with strong winds aloft, we should see some lenticular clouds in the lee of the Catalinas. Videoing them would be a good thing for you to do because you would, in fast playback, be able to see how they keep forming on the upwind side and disappearing on the downwind side while holding their overall position. If the moisture increases, they expand, and if it decreases, they shrink and dry up, something likely to happen later in the day.

While that’s going on, there’ll likely be some Cumulus and Stratocumulus off to the north, and since the air is going to be much colder aloft to the north today, some ice is likely to form in them late in the day in those northern clouds, leading to some virga. Those lower clouds, according to our models, should begin appearing around here, too, in the late afternoon and evening. Alas, measurable rain is very unlikely, and with this, last little threat, October 2013 will go out rainless here in Catalinaland.

Farther ahead…..

More middle and high clouds and great sunrises and sunsets are likely on November 3rd and 4th as a little upper level trough creeps in from the lower latitudes of the Pacific off Mexico. It was once projected by the models to bring rain to here, but now it seems only a sprinkle is possible; most of the tropical moisture shunted to the south and over northern Mexico.

In the longer term, while all “fantasy rain” has disappeared for AZ based on last evening’s 11 PM AST model run, stronger than normal storms are showing up for California later in the first week of November, and with that, we’ll always have the hope that this time, the “fantasy” in that model calculations is no rain shown for here.

The End, but enjoy those pretty clouds today!

Pretty skies; pretty Cirrus

Here are some shots:

SONY DSC — Cirrus fibratus, straightish fibers of CIrrus lacking a tuft or hook at the top, in this case toward the left. For fussy folks who detect a slight hook, Cirrus uncinus would be OK, too. Not really too important to differentiate between these species. Just shows its moist up there, and, like yesterday, there was a trough going by; air sliding up ahead of it, going down and clearing things off behind it (as happened late yesterday).

Tried to find some rain for you in the models, but only one had rain, and that was the low resolution (big grid spacing) Canadian GEM model posted here. It had the rainy panel (lower right) for SE Arizona calculated from last evening’s global data:

Valid for Wednesday morning, 5 AM, October 30th. The colored areas in the lower right panel are those ones where the model thinks it should have rained in the prior 12 h. Note heavier, red-blobs in AZ! How great would that be? Again this rain is the result of a westerly trough grabbing the moisture out of a tropical storm off Baja, a very “iffy” situation, to quote a term oft used by the much honored, late atmos sci Professor Richard Reed of the U of WA¹.

Also, I am really learning about how much the WRF-GFS model likes to bring hurricanes and tropical storms into the Southwest. Yesterday’s model run at 11 AM AST, had another doozie coming up the coast in two weeks still having tropical storm strength and its about to pounce on northern Baja, southern Cal, and maybe AZ. Here is that depiction for your amusement, valid at 11 AM, Saturday NCAA football day, November 9th.

: the stuff of dreams for Saturday, November 9th, 11 AM AST.

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¹

The late Richard Reed, a man that did not mince his words. The nicest thing he ever said to me was, "Those guys have gotta be stopped." — The late Richard Reed, a man that did not mince his words. The nicest thing he ever said to me was, “Those guys have gotta be stopped.”

Nice sunset; slight rain due in Thursday morning

Canadian model wetting it up for SE AZ on the 10th; US mod just says “no” to AZ rain

Hot off the Canadian presses from last evening’s global data from 5 PM yesterday, this exciting depiction (from Enviro Can) for Friday afternoon, the 10th. Note green and yellow regions in all of the SW, lower right panel! Note big upper trough over Vegas, upper left panel. Its all good, and, this being the 5th, its only a few days away!

00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144 — Valid Friday afternoon at 5 PM AST. Note “tropical river” emanating from a tropical storm or depression off the tip of Baja (colored regions in lower left panel). No reason to be depressed if this happens.

But let’s look deeper….deep into the heart of the US WRF-GFS model for the exact same moment in time, shown below:

Also valid at 5 PM AST on October 10th. Perhaps the US model is sequestering rain for Arizona.... NONE, and in nil, is indicated from a model run generated from EXACTLY the same data as the Canadian one above and it shows no rain for much of anywhere in Arizona. How bizarre is that? — Also valid at 5 PM AST on October 10th from IPS MeteoStar. Perhaps the US model is sequestering rain for Arizona…. NONE, as in nil, is indicated from a model run generated at the same time as the Canadian one above! As you can see from the arrow, there is NO RAIN indicated for most of Arizona as a very strong upper level trough goes by. How bizarre is that? Something’s goofy here and its not just me.

What caused this model bifurcation?

For one thing, the US mod sees no tropical depression off Baja, and our hurricane center is very skeptical that any tropical development will take place south of Baja, one that would move NW or N and send a moist plume up into a trough positioning itself over southern Cal on the 9th. US mod has NO tropical moist stream coming out of the eastern Pac ahead of a trough over southern Cal at all, whether there is a low down there or not. Boohoo.

So, any rain here in Catalina would be with the usual passage of the jet core and in the cold Pacific air behind the cold blast headed our way on the 10th-11th. And that rain would be very light, likely less than a tenth of an inch.

The Canadian model, sadly, has to be considered a little goofy right now with its copious SE AZ rains, and widespread rain/snow over the rest of AZ, too. It would be good to inform your neighbors that you are thinking the same thing about the Canadian model, i.e. that its a bit looney as well in case they saw it and are touting a lot of rain on the way without really looking into things. Embedded editorial note: A lot of people vote like that, too, I think; also read health claims in magazines without looking at the peer-reviewed literature, taling with their doctor, examine the results of double blind, randomized trials, that kind of thing on which we base the whole edifice of medicine on. No, they’d rather read on the side of a health pill food, “these claims have not been evaluated by the FDA” and then take the stuff anyway and enjoy the effects of a placebo, which, if you believe in it, can be pretty good.

No doubt the reports of low temperatures in Arizona with this coming big upper trough on the 10th-11th, and snow in the high mountains, will spur a flock of snowbirds to migrate south. It’ll be windy and dusty, too, as it usually gets ahead of the passage of the cold front with these big troughs. That will be interesting, as well as all the cloud forms that start to show up with it.

Note: I’d show you some NOAA spaghetti so that we could get a little more on this model discrepancy, but its been sequestered from me, as you will see here. In the meantime, will hope for Canadian vindication in the days ahead.

The End.

Filling in the blanks

Breezy, deep blue skies were pocked with Cumulus humilis (“humble”) but as the afternoon wore on, they became more numerous, and spread out to nearly fill the morning’s clear sky, while remaining “humble”; about the same depth, 1,000 to 1,500 feet, max. Cloud tops were above freezing, so no chance to form ice and snowflakes, which would have fallen out as virga. Nor was there a single Ac lenticular, as opined here that there might be one yesterday.

These kinds of days with scattered clouds producing shadows on our spectacular Catalina Mountains is one of the most mesmerizing. If you can, you want to be somewhere where outside where you can see those shadows trek across our mountains, their rocky faces highlighted and then dimmed, while another portion lights up highlighting some other characteristic of those mountains, particularly in the late afternoon when the sun light is that bit richer (due to traveling through a greater path of the atmosphere as it sinks toward the horizon and more of the harsher, shorter wavelengths of white light are scattered out). Ask any photographer or artist.

And its no wonder we draw so many visitors in the cooler half of the year when there are so many days like yesterday; no rain, pleasant temperatures, but astounding, simple beauty just in the passing of a cloud shadow on a mountain.

3:11 PM, looking farther toward the south. So pretty. You can just sit there and watch these ever changing scenes for hours — 3:11 PM, looking farther toward the north. So pretty. You can just sit there and watch these ever changing scenes for hours. “Less doing, more watching.”

5:33 PM. Even our dreaded cholla cactus can have so much beauty in the right light.

4:19 PM. Wonder how many of you noticed this line of small Cumulus clouds, called a "cloud street"? At first I thought it was caused by a bounce of the air going over and around Pusch Ridge, but later it was clear it had origins far to the south. — 4:19 PM. Wonder how many of you noticed this line of small Cumulus clouds, called a “cloud street”? At first I thought it was caused by a bounce of the air going over and around Pusch Ridge, but later it was clear it had origins far to the south.

5:29 PM. Still going, but you can see the origin is not much related to Pusch Ridge as it shifted westward and extended overhead and downstream into Pinal County. — 5:29 PM. “Cloud street” still going, but you can see the origin is not much related to Pusch Ridge as it shifted westward and extended overhead and downstream into Pinal County. The clouds were filling in pretty fast at this time, but barely deepening.

6:07 PM. While the sunset itself wasn't spectacular, the lighting on the mountains was. — 6:07 PM. While the sunset itself wasn’t spectacular, the lighting on the mountains was. Aren’t you glad you live in Catalina?

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In spite of overcast Stratocumulus clouds right now in the pre-dawn hours, there are no echoes on the radar anywhere near us. Boohoo.

And, if you’ve read this blog, and studied its contents, taken all the quizes, you know its because the tops aren’t cold enough to form ice (generally requires -10 C, 14 F here), pretty much required for rain here in old Arizony. Of course, some of our citizens are older than “old Arizony” as a State, which is pretty darn amazing, so maybe it should be, “not-that-old-Arizony”, to depart from whatever it was I was going to say before thinking about “Arizony.”

Now, back to weather…. Looking at the satellite and radar from IPS MeteoStar, it would appear that there are enough clouds around that a sprinkle is possible before noon as an upper trough goes by today. The air will be getting colder aloft, and there appears to be a line of colder clouds in a band right now in western Arizona, maybe ones cold enough to do that. Measurable rain is a very remote possibility, however.

Another trough, very similar looking to this one today, with a blast of cooler air comes through on Friday, October 4th, but like this one, looks dry. So, we have two pretty nice weekends in a row ahead of us as far as moderate temperatures go, and more great cloud shadows.

No rain for SE AZ in models for the next 15 days. Dang.

The End.

Water year status (October through September precip)

As water year winds down, just a couple of weeks left, its worthwhile to see where we are. Pretty dismal. You can see why the spring wildflower bloom was minimal around here. Great December, though!

Can there be any rain before the official end of the month, measurable rain that might improve our dismal 10.83 inches, droughty total?

Not if you believe our own WRF-GFS model run from last night, but, “yes” if you like Canada and the Canadian GEM model. It has some rain in the area for us on Sunday the 22nd. Here it is:

Valid at 5 PM, Sunday September 22nd. Note green in SE AZ (lower right panel), and blue for moist air around 10,000 feet ASL in the left lower panel. Excellent model run.

In the meantime, our own model run has the moist plume WAY to the east at that same time, and so no rain here. Here is that map from the WRF-GFS , as rendered by IPS Meteostar, for moisture around 10,000 feet ASL. The blue moist plume in the Canadian model above (get microscope out) is the same as the green one below, except that the green moist plume is shoved off to the east and south. Dang.

Also valid for 5 PM AST, Sunday September 22nd. The green plume here across NM and into the Plains should be compared with the blue plume at this level (700 mb) in the Canadian run above.

Saw some clouds in the moonlight just now. Seems that drier air can’t quite get rid of our summer regime moist plume, one that even yesterday was close enough to us to have produced a thunderhead off toward Mt. Graham and vicinity to the NE. The chances are small we’ll get any more measurable rain, but as in sports, that moist plume seems to be hanging around, and you know that old sports saying that when heavily favored teams let underdogs “hang around”; don’t blow them out as expected, upsets can happen. Well, of course, that’s what I am hoping for, just that bit more rain to at least push us over the 11 inch mark. Its not a BIG hope, just 0.17 inches more before October 1st.

Here are a couple of cloud shots from yesterday:

The End

Nearby locations get shafted as summer thunderstorms go on for one more day

Looks now, in spite of a few Altocumulus clouds around that yesterday was the LAST day of our summer rain season in terms of having rain. Much drier air moving across Arizona from the west now. Kinda sad about it, still yesterday was GREAT, a final tribute in a way. Will have some stats tomorrow on how we did here in Catalina/SH compared to normal. Big trough comes in around the 25th to give a preview of cool fall weather. I suppose you’ll like that, not being hot every day.

In the meantime, your cloud day yesterday below, in detail, of course.

9:12 AM. Pretty Altocumulus/ floccus and castellanus (has a flat bottom).

11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a "cloud street", one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts. — 11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a “cloud street”, one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts.

12:08 PM. Here's a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there's a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead 'round here. — 12:08 PM. Here’s a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there’s a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead ’round here.

12:26 PM. NOthing much going on in this cloud street. But it will amazingly enough. — 12:26 PM. Nothing much going on in this cloud street. But it will, amazingly enough.

12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, "Huh. That's not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?" At this point, you start obsessing over this cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don't want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. — 12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, “Huh. That’s not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?” At this point, you start obsessing over this largest cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don’t want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. That’s probably what you should have done.

12:55 PM. You're upset you didn't call a friend because now you see that there's a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch. — 12:55 PM. You’re upset you didn’t call a friend because now you see that there’s a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch.

1:00 PM. Just five minutes later, the shaft is already on the ground!

1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn't another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty. — 1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn’t another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty.

4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they've been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, "hold the ice"; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down. — 4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they’ve been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, “hold the ice”; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down.

6:36 PM. Still, it was a great cloud effort yesterday, and here even in the evening, some are still putting out. And with a couple of drops from the earlier storm to the NW, we got to register a trace of rain in The Heights.

Seeing cloud tops over Prescott from Catalina; Douglas tops 16 inches in summer rain

Here they are:

2:53 PM. Cumulonimbus tops with their anvils line horizon northwest to north. The ones that begin this series on the left are in the Prescott area. See radar chart below. Cumulus fractus clouds are in the foreground.

ann prc-1 — 2:45 PM AST. Arizona radar echoes yesterday at the time of the photo. Note little green patch SW of Prescott, maybe Peoples Valley area. Radar courtesy of WSI Intellicast. That would be the leftmost tops.

6:41 PM. Nice sunset with "surprise" Cumulonimbus located NW of Sells. Nice little virga patch hanging down from some Altocumulus next to it. — 6:41 PM. Nice sunset with “surprise” rogue Cumulonimbus located NW of Sells. Nice little virga patch hanging down from some Altocumulus next to it. Did not expect a Cb in that direction at the end of the day. Bodes well for today; having Cbs that are a little closer to us.

6:46 PM. Totally clear skies, moon intact, S-SW, though. Stratified smog layer is at bottom. Smog was much less yesterday than feared it would be after the afternoon invasion of the day before. — 6:46 PM. The sky was completely clear, however, moon intact, S-SW. Note stratified smog layer at the bottom.

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Our desert greening seems to be reaching its peak now, and so it would be nice for you to get out and see it before football day on Saturday and it could start to wilt that bit under our drier conditions. Just after sunrise, and just before sunset, there is some great lighting on our weedy summer desert vegetation.

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The weather ahead….

Canadians¹ think the tropical air will hang around SE Arizona for a few more days, with the chances of rain actually increasing that bit on Saturday. The US WRF-GFS model is not quite so generous with precip here, so we will ignore that one. But, in any event, we should have pretty Cumulus, and distant Cumulonimbus clouds for a few more days before The End, after which we have to wait for a hurricane/tropical storm to roar up the coast of Baja and across Yuma to get any real rain.

In the meantime, I am wondering whether you have taken that trip I suggested to SE Arizona to see the vegetation explosion resulting from this summer’s extraordinary rains they’ve gotten down there? Douglas, for example, has just crossed over the 16 inches mark for this summer a couple of days ago, the wettest summer of the past 100 years down that way. The summer desert vegetation down there must be extraordinary, too, and it would really be worth seeing. I will get down there for sure!

It has continued to rain extraordinary amounts of rain in western Arizona. Here is a depiction of just the past seven days ending yesterday morning (today’s image is not out yet). Its a great sight, considering our “extreme” and “exceptional” drought designations over that way.

Seven day radar-derived precipitation totals for the US ending yesterday at 5 AM AST. Just look at how Arizona overall has fared during this period. Amazing. Should make a good dent in our drought conditions. And the generous rains in droughty NM are foretold to continue, good news indeed. (BTW, the excessive precip around Salt Lake City is bogus, due to an error.) There are holes in mountainous areas due to blocked radar beams, so this map under represents the rain that actually occurred. Need more radars!

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¹The writer exhibits bias here due to his precipophilic personality combined with having most of his relatives living in Canada. Also, the cruder Canadian model with its larger grid sizes tends to smooth out precip over larger areas than the US WRF-GFS model shown here.

Big thunderblast down Oracle, Pusch Ridge way; a personal report

Couldn’t be on “the perch” for that rain here in SH-Catalina late yesterday afternoon (0.14 inches) due to a social engagement, but, serendipitously drove under the 1-2 inch blast of rain, lightning, and 60 mph winds that deluged Oracle Road at Magee and points south. 1.7 inches was measured in 37 minutes at the Ina Road and CDO Wash! You can find more regional totals here. Arrived in that zone just as the bottom unloaded, the most exciting place you can be, as you and storm chasers know, of course. Restaurant, at Ina and Oracle, took quite a bit of water, too

4:37 PM. Gorgeous shafts of rain obscure the Catalina Mountains by Catalina State Park, Romero Falls. — 4:37 PM. Gorgeous shafts of rain obscure parts of the Catalina Mountains next to Catalina State Park, Romero Falls area. Had to pull off and get SOMETHING of this sight. Didn’t see a flow in the CDO later though¹. (Mini-harangue down below, way down, about walls.

You can see this stupendous sequence, too, from the U of AZ campus here.

A U of AZ mod from 11 PM last night foretells another active rain day today. This is great. Weeds getting crispy, as seen on yesterday’s horseback ride. Maybe some will get rejuvenated. Expert takes on mods will come out later by Bob and Mike, of course. The scene at White Dog Ranch, by the CDO wash and Lago del Oro as of yesterday:

But also saw some wildlfower stragglers

7:58 AM. Still some of these around, as well as some kind of yellow flowers, too, hangers on through the recent dry conditions. — 7:58 AM. Still some of these around, as well as some kind of yellow flowers, too; hangers on through the recent dry conditions.

And, to finish off here, the early signs of a likely good day ahead, Cu sprouting above Ms. Lemmon by mid morning, tops reaching “glaciation temperatures” not much later, and, of course, “thunder on the Lemmon before 1 PM.” Like all “signs”, there are exceptions but they usually work out, like yesterday’s downpours.

The End.

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¹The CDO wash is no longer visible at Oracle on the east side, thanks to an unnecessary, unbelievable 400 feet of sound wall monstrosity, extended past the neighborhood (Ramsfield Pass) it was supposed to shelter from a few extra decibels. One Catalina neighbor described it as only slightly better looking than the Berlin Wall. Our tax dollars at work, I guess, in some bizarre way. The wash did NOT need to be protected from a few decibals, and I miss seeing in as we used to!

Bringing down the curtains, everywhere but not here

It was great to see a huge Cumulonimbus squatting on Ms. Mt. Lemmon yesterday just after noon, then hours of intermittent thunder as new clouds piled high into the troposphere around it. One site, White Tail by Catalina Highway up there, got almost two inches in just an hour! So, the atmosphere was quite juicy yesterday.

Still, to see all those pretty curtains, rain ones, dropping down around us as new Cumulus powered up into Cumulonimbus clouds, many such events due to Cumulus spawned by outflow winds from the Lemmon dumps, was visually nice, but “unsatisfying” because none landed on me.

Too, we need to catch up to our nearly 7-inch normal July-August rain from the half that we have now, and we came up with only a trace here in the Sutherland district.

BTW, under “advanced observation taking”, you would have logged the first drops from the anvil overhang of the “storm on the Lemmon” at 1:51 PM. Well, maybe not exactly that minute at YOUR house, but I nailed it! Had to be outside though, and wait around for those drops, since it was not clear drops would even make it to the ground from what was over me. The wait was worth it.

Of course, those early storms, rising off the Catalina peaks, usually don’t make it here off the mountains early on with anything but sprinkles. Only later in the day, when we’ve been baked some more, do those giants start making their way on to the lower elevations, and yesterday they did.

Here is your cloud photo diary for yesterday, beginning with your precursors for a good cloud day:

10:51 AM. RIght here you should have been thinking, "Man, this could be a fantastic rain day!" Look at how thin and tall this cloud got, and it happened soon after the first scruff formed *Cu fractus). — 10:51 AM. RIght here you should have been thinking, “Man, this could be a fantastic rain day!” Look at how thin and tall this cloud got, and it happened soon after the first scruff formed (Cu fractus).

11:14 AM, the above cloud devolving into a reminder of atomic testing back in the 1950s, "nuclear winter" scenarios in the 1980s. — 11:14 AM, the prior cloud devolving into a reminder, with its narrow stem, of atomic testing back in the 1950s^{1 see historical note}, “nuclear winter” scenarios in the 1980s. a way of defeating global warming…..(gallows humor). The flattening of the cloud at top indicates that there was a temperature barrier that still needed to be punched through as the day warmed.

12:28 PM. Minimal lid capping prior cloud punched through as day warmed--see protruding top; thunder began at this time. I probably did not need to tell you that. Sorry. — 12:28 PM. Minimal lid capping prior cloud punched through as day warmed–see protruding top; thunder began at this time. I probably did not need to tell you that. Sorry.

2:20 PM. Pretty curtains just after drenching Pusch Ridge, drift S to deluge TUS--see papers today. — 2:20 PM. Pretty curtains, just after drenching Pusch Ridge, drift S to deluge TUS–see today’s AZ Star. It is truly remarkable how much rain can fall from these clouds! Note the stranding here, detailing differences in the cloud’s structure above, generally associated with hail and graupel up there.

Today’s clouds and weather?

You know the drill. Early cloud conditions (due to Altocumulus opacus), followed by a slow burn off, then the rise of the Cumulus clouds. U of AZ mod expects a very active day today, so maybe the curtain will come down on Catalina this afternoon.

Farther out: “tropical river” still floods SE Cal and western AZ, as we remain on the edge, getting something but not the full force as those areas will. Remnant center passes over Yuma Sunday AM. Might be worth a trip. Hell, they could get their annual precip in 12 h, something to write to the family about if you’re there.

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¹ Historical note re “atomic testing”: It was a common perception in those days of atomic testing, generally scientists believed, by naive, uninformed peoples, that the explosions were changing the weather. So, when anything weird in weather happened, some would point to “atomic testing”, kind of like some scientists do with global warming and weird weather today. (“Real scientists” are more cautious about attributing a storm or other singular event to GW.)

The US Weather Bureau (ATOMIC EXPLOSIONS AND WEATHER USWB) and the US government went to great lengths to explain to these people why atomic testing could not have changed the weather; it was too small an event to have changed the weather.

In fact, with the rise of Chaos Theory, where it is deemed by some scientists² that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil might have something to do with a tornado in Texas, of COURSE, atomic testing changed the friggin’ weather! We just don’t know how and where…

Also, it is normal and proper for scientists to correct, enhance, or reject prior theories as new facts come in. “Hey” think about how embarrassed the cosmologists were back in the 1990s or so when they discovered they had the friggin’ sign of the “Cosmic Constant” wrong. The Universe was expanding, ever more rapidly, not collapsing. Then, and this is really funny, they made up some magic called, “Dark Energy” to explain that inexplicable new finding! But, as the ideals of science demand, they did change their minds and theories! Not sure that happens so easily today in some domains I could think of.

²Nick, research faculty, U of WA, private communication, as seen in the Seattle Times.