The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more) – Page 14

Plenty of late November rain ahead…in model; a sunrise beauty

In case you missed it, yesterday’s sunrise:

6:52 AM. Altostratus with mammatus underlit by rising sun. — 6:52 AM. Altostratus with modest downward hanging mammatus¹ bulges under lit by rising sun above the Catalina Mountains. Altocumulus clouds are in the background. Was a magnificent sight.

6:57 AM. Mammatus protuberances more evident here, and quite lovely. — 6:57 AM. Mammatus protuberances more evident here, and quite lovely I thought. I seem drawn to mammatus formations.

The weather way ahead

Well, the WRF-GOOFUS model has lots of rain for us again as November closes out, with the model rain amounts foretold in November for Catalina now totaling over two inches, or about twice normal. Its been great model month of rain for us. Below the latest rains foretold, beginning on the 27th, continuing into the 29th. Here from IPS MeteoStar, these renderings from our best model, based on last evening’s global obs taken at 5 PM AST:

: Valid at 5 PM, Wednesday, November 27th.

28th 2013111400_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_348 — Vallid on Thursday, November 28th at 5 AM AST.

28th 5 pm 2013111400_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360 — Valid at 5 pm November 28th. Green areas denote areas where the model has calculated that rain has occurred during the prior 12 h.

27th 2013111400_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_336 — Valid at 5 AM AST Friday, November 29th.

There is some evidence from the NOAA spaghetti factory that churns out those spaghetti plots that a big change happens in the last week of November, so rain at the end of the month, two weeks from now, is not out of the question. This rain pattern results from a stagnant upper low SW of us which you can see here.

What about the weather immediately ahead?

Global pattern shifting like mad today due to what we call, “discontinuous retrogression” caused by low cutting off out of the jet stream in the central Pacific. Troughs/ridges jump westward almost overnight when this happens. Highs disappear overnight as is happening right now over the whole West! Very exciting, except in this case, while a trough blossoms overnight replacing a ridge in the West, its amplitude (how far south the jet stream in the trough gets) doesn’t seem to be enough to provide us with rain here in Catalina now. Remember that winter rain here is nearly ALWAYS associated with a jet (at 500 mb) to the south of us.

This drastic change in pattern often only lasts a couple of days, too, before reverting to “same old same old” as we had, fair and warm. I wanna cuss here.

The foretold development of a trough in mid-month in the West was a huge, and strong signal, you may recall, in our “Lorenz plots” (I am hoping this name catches on; he deserves it), those balls of yarn I show every so often. So the trough and cold air getting here to SE AZ has been “in the bag” for more than 10 days in advance, according to those strange plots.

However, the rain here in the actual model runs has come and gone in them as mid-month approaches, and lately, there ain’t been nothin’ here. At most, a few hundredths it would now seem, and most likely, nil.

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1Gender-specific naming cloud variety convention: if male, as in the case of the writer, this cloud formation is deemed, “Altostratus mammatus”; if female, the proper name would be “Altostratus testicularis.” Its part of an adjustment similar to the one when only female names were used for hurricanes, and doing that, it was felt, lent a kind of stereotype to female behavior/character. So, male names for hurricanes were introduced by NOAA in the 1970s to “even the score”.

A look at Catalina’s empty water year container so far; but spiget may be about to be turned on

While waiting for measurable rain to begin piling up in November, let’s look at no rain so far for the current water year which began October 1st:

Updated to 2013 Catalina WY rainfall averages — The observed monthly rainfall is shown by an adjacent column in yellow on the right… (hahaha, trick or treat, there isn’t any yet)

In fact, speaking of piling up, here’s some rain in this forecast from the Canadian GEM model already for the night of November 4th-5th, and, of course, windy on the 4th before the cold front with this barges in. And, I am happy to report that the USA WRF-GFS model is ALSO showing rain during this time, after being rather reluctant until the run from last night at 11 PM AST, seen here. This is lookin’ good now for our first measurable rain in over a month.

Valid at 5 AM AST November 5th. Colored regions in the lower RIGHT panel are those in which the model thinks it has rained during the prior 12 h (overnight, Nov-4-5). You might have to use binoculars to see it.

But wait, there’s more!

Amajor precip episode has shown up in the 11 PM AST WRF-GRS run from last evening! Check out these renderings from that model run from a site I like, IPS MeteoStar:

2013110206_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_288 — Valid for Thursday, November 14th at 11 PM AST. Colored regions indicate where rain should have fallen in the prior 12 h. Note heavier blob over us, indicated by darker green!

2013110206_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_300 — Valid for 11 AM November 15th. Precip for the prior 12 h ending at this time shown by colored regions. Note bull’s eye in this area (likely associated with mountains around here). So, the mod thinks it could be raining over a 12-24 h period.

In the past we have seen numerous examples of “fantasy rain” produced for us here, often involving decaying tropical storms, that turned out to be completely bogus in this time range, that beyond 8-9 days. Its pretty normal for goofy things to show up in these models beyond that time. Just too much chaos going on and using measurements with their inevitable errors, even if fairly slight ones, not to mention that we don’t really have all the answers to how the atmosphere works.

So, what do we do? We deliberately input errors into a few model runs at the very beginning and see what happens, how crazy the key contours and isobars get. “Pretty cool, huh?”, as Bill Nye the science guy might say if he were writing this. Where they remain pretty steady, that’s where a prediction, even one ten or more days out, is going to be very reliable. Here’s is a sample of one of those crazy results from NOAA:

The plot above indicates that there is a very strong signal for a big trough and storms along the West Coast 10 days out. The red lines show that there is a strong signal for the jet stream from the subtropics to be a bit south of us.

The main point here is to point out that while the DAY OF THE RAIN on those forecast maps might change in the models, there are still going to be a number of days where troughs and fronts threaten to bring rain yo Catalina over the next two weeks, and one’s likely to make it as a rainy one.

Thinking now, having a rain bias (“truth-in-packaging” note here), that November’s rain will be near or above normal.

Today’s clouds

Look for a few Cirrus and maybe Altocumulus to appear late in the day with the likelihood of a nice sunset shot.

Measurable rain to fall in November (!)

That’s it. Its a kind of news release, best released on the 1st. Its news, of course, you won’t find on other weather sites because maybe they’re chicken, or prudent. Check back on November 30th, and if its rainless again, there will be no mention of this forecast.

But, after the rainless October (we average about an inch here in Catalina), you probably won’t believe me. Check this out from the NOAA spaghetti factory. I got pretty excited when I saw it. I think, you will, too, maybe mention it to your neighbors over coffee this morning, having been pretty convinced yourself after seeing this that storms are a brewin’ for Catalina and vicinity (all of Arizona) in November:

Valid for November 10th at 5 PM AST. Originates with global data obs made at 5 PM AST last evening, and represents a few key 500 millibar height contours after DELIBERATE little errors have been put in and the computer model rerun with them in it.

Thank E. N. Lorenz, a meteorologist for Chaos Theory and maps like the above that show how little tweaks in the original data can change stuff a lot if things are fragile, but not so much if the signal is robust, and things not so fragile. Here a deep trough along and off off the West Coast on November 10th is virtually guaranteed by the blue and red lines that plunge so far to the south off the West Coast. A trough out there, as you know, gives us the best chance for rain as it progresses to the east. The bunching of lines indicates where the forecast, with baby errors, is strongest, like off Asia, and hereabouts, off Baja. Those red lines are pretty much where the south edge of the jet stream will be at this time of year. As you know, we have to be on the north side of the jet during the winter here in old Arizony to get precip, so it looks good for that to happen as we move forward in the month.

BTW, here’s your official forecast for the whole month of November from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). As you can see, this November is a tough month for them, no real signals showing up for the month as a whole as indicated by the HUGE areas of “EC”, i.e., “equal chances” of above or below normal precip. We’re kind of on the edge of “we don’t know what’s going to happen” (in the popular lexicon, “clueless”) which is good. The signal for continued drought here is not so strong, though it is there. Poor New Mexico, though.

November precip forecast for North America made on Halloween by the CPC.

Cloud photo op coming up

A weak trough ejects from the Pacific and over us beginning tomorrow, and it should bring some great photogenic Cirrus and Altocumulus clouds tomorrow afternoon and evening, likely some “castellanus” if you care. Likely to be some virga (snow falling from the Ac) too, so could be a great sunset shot coming up. With the virga, always a slight chance of a sprinkle-its-not drizzle.

The End.

Having an effect after all; sunsets, clouds, and the weather ahead

I was driving down in Tucson yesterday, kind of moping around about all the blogs I had done with little or no interest. You may recall from a blog I did a few months ago I reported to my reader that a business site had evaluated the worth of my blog, and due to the amount of traffic it brought, it was found to be worth $25.

But then as I rounded Campbell and headed northbound from Fort Lowell, I saw this sign exhorting fellow Tucsonians to watch clouds! My mood brightened. Maybe there were a few out there that I had affected after all; a whole cloud watching movement had started! I did see, however, that since the sign maker was wondering whether there were clouds in the sky or not, and there was a lot of Cirrus overhead, I saw that I had more work to do.

This sign seen near Campbell and just north of Fort Lowell yesterday afternoon.

Yesterday’s clouds

9:03 AM. Cirrus fibratus in rolls, undulations due to waves in the atmosphere associated with the strong jet stream above us. — 9:03 AM. Cirrus fibratus in rolls, undulations, due to waves in the atmosphere associated with the strong jet stream above us.

In case you were asleep, watching Monday night fubball, and NOT watching clouds, here is yesterday’s magnificent sunset as the sun underlit those dense Altostratus clouds that developed from thinner Cirrus ones during the afternoon and evening.

Today, more mid-level clouds and with strong winds aloft, we should see some lenticular clouds in the lee of the Catalinas. Videoing them would be a good thing for you to do because you would, in fast playback, be able to see how they keep forming on the upwind side and disappearing on the downwind side while holding their overall position. If the moisture increases, they expand, and if it decreases, they shrink and dry up, something likely to happen later in the day.

While that’s going on, there’ll likely be some Cumulus and Stratocumulus off to the north, and since the air is going to be much colder aloft to the north today, some ice is likely to form in them late in the day in those northern clouds, leading to some virga. Those lower clouds, according to our models, should begin appearing around here, too, in the late afternoon and evening. Alas, measurable rain is very unlikely, and with this, last little threat, October 2013 will go out rainless here in Catalinaland.

Farther ahead…..

More middle and high clouds and great sunrises and sunsets are likely on November 3rd and 4th as a little upper level trough creeps in from the lower latitudes of the Pacific off Mexico. It was once projected by the models to bring rain to here, but now it seems only a sprinkle is possible; most of the tropical moisture shunted to the south and over northern Mexico.

In the longer term, while all “fantasy rain” has disappeared for AZ based on last evening’s 11 PM AST model run, stronger than normal storms are showing up for California later in the first week of November, and with that, we’ll always have the hope that this time, the “fantasy” in that model calculations is no rain shown for here.

The End, but enjoy those pretty clouds today!

More fantasy rain eventuates from tropical influences for SE Arizona in latest model run

My fantasy rain team (I call, “WURF-GOOFUS“) already has FIVE inches of fantasy rain in Arizona for November, and here’s more from last night’s 00 Z model run! In case you went to school lately and have trouble finding where you are, I have added an arrow on the map so that you’ll know where SE AZ is (“hey”, we’ve read those stories about HS students not being able to name states….)

Valid for Wednesday, November 6th at 5 PM.

And its not only this map, but a few after this as well. Here’s 24 h later and its STILL raining in SE AZ, with a rain center right on my house!

Valid for Thursday, November 7th at 5 PM AST. How great is this fantasy rain?

I’m thinking now that my fantasy rain team from WURF-GOOFUS has six or seven inches predicted for just November! OF COURSE, its not real rain, its fantasy rain, but, there it is again.

Losing control, the rainless October, the mostly clear skies day after day getting to brain functions, hallucinating again over model outputs of clouds and rain…. Must seek treatment.

The End.

Pretty skies; pretty Cirrus

Here are some shots:

SONY DSC — Cirrus fibratus, straightish fibers of CIrrus lacking a tuft or hook at the top, in this case toward the left. For fussy folks who detect a slight hook, Cirrus uncinus would be OK, too. Not really too important to differentiate between these species. Just shows its moist up there, and, like yesterday, there was a trough going by; air sliding up ahead of it, going down and clearing things off behind it (as happened late yesterday).

The weather ahead

Tried to find some rain for you in the models, but only one had rain, and that was the low resolution (big grid spacing) Canadian GEM model posted here. It had the rainy panel (lower right) for SE Arizona calculated from last evening’s global data:

Valid for Wednesday morning, 5 AM, October 30th. The colored areas in the lower right panel are those ones where the model thinks it should have rained in the prior 12 h. Note heavier, red-blobs in AZ! How great would that be? Again this rain is the result of a westerly trough grabbing the moisture out of a tropical storm off Baja, a very “iffy” situation, to quote a term oft used by the much honored, late atmos sci Professor Richard Reed of the U of WA¹.

Also, I am really learning about how much the WRF-GFS model likes to bring hurricanes and tropical storms into the Southwest. Yesterday’s model run at 11 AM AST, had another doozie coming up the coast in two weeks still having tropical storm strength and its about to pounce on northern Baja, southern Cal, and maybe AZ. Here is that depiction for your amusement, valid at 11 AM, Saturday NCAA football day, November 9th.

: the stuff of dreams for Saturday, November 9th, 11 AM AST.

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¹

The late Richard Reed, a man that did not mince his words. The nicest thing he ever said to me was, "Those guys have gotta be stopped." — The late Richard Reed, a man that did not mince his words. The nicest thing he ever said to me was, “Those guys have gotta be stopped.”

Not likely to verify, but a wonderful map (but, “trending up” in twitter-speak)

This is definitely not the same title as was a few days ago for a similar map, one also valid for Nov 3rd-4th. That title was quite different: “Not likely, but a wonderful map.” The rainy Arizona map back then from our best model showed a tropical storm and moist plume being drawn northward into AZ.

Almost the exact map as that one a few days ago has shown up again out of the blue, if you can say that when you’re talking about clouds and precipitation. There’s been nothing like that former map since that first time it showed up, and, in view of how odd it was, you tend to write it off as something you’ll not see again. But there it was again, now only 10 days out.

Below, the happy, rainy AZ map churned out by last night’s model run based on global data taken around 5 PM AST yesterday ( from IPS MeteoStar):

MOdel outpur valid for 5 PM November 4th. Shows tropical storm remnant being sucked up toward Arizona with lots of rain already here. — Model output valid for 5 PM AST, Monday, November 4th. Shows tropical storm remnant being sucked up toward Arizona with lots of rain already here. Green blobs denote where the model thinks rain has fallen in the prior 12 h, which here is the entire State of AZy!

Below is the pattern aloft that steers (hahaha) all that moisture into our water-challenged State, one that has a lot of steers.

HOWEVER, this rainy situation requires a lucky conjunction of a Pacific trough coming in out of the Pacific onto the southern California coastline, while a tropical storm/former hurricane is off Mazatlån at that same moment. If these two features of interest are just about anywhere else than is shown here in these model projections, forget it.

The flow pattern in the middle of the troposphere, around 15,000 to 20,000 feet above sea level. Yep, that's right, half the air is gone by the time you get to only about 17,500 feet! — The flow pattern in the middle of the troposphere, around 15,000 to 20,000 feet above sea level. Yep, that’s right, half the air is gone by the time you get to only about 17,500 feet!

The first time this rainy map was shown for Nov. 3-4th, back about five days ago, the chances of it actually happening were probably somewhere around 0.2 percent. Just too much had to fall into place. Coming up twice, however, jacks the lucky numbers up to, oh, maybe to an 8 percent chance of actually happening as a wild guess. Not a great chance, but one that’s trending upward. You know, after the rainless October that’s about to finish up, we really deserve this storm in early November. The NOAA spaghetti factory has good support for a trough along the California coast at this time, so its likely THAT ingredient will likely be in place on November 3rd-4th.

Yesterday’s clouds; yes, there were a couple, some patchy Cirrus and a little band of Altocumulus, some of the latter trending toward lenticularis-ee ones. later on. Here they are.

2:37 PM. Patches of Cirrus drift across the southeastern sky.

The End

Yesterday’s drizzle

Some rare drizzle precip¹ fell yesterday. Suggests clouds were pretty “clean”, that is, didn’t have much aerosol loading and the concentrations of droplets in them was low (likely less than 100 cm^-3) Also likely, in view of the recent strong winds, some of the aerosols in those clouds might have been large dust particles² rather than those due to just “smog” and other tiny natural aerosols. Large dust particles can not only influence the development of ice at higher temperatures than normal (above -10 C), but is also known to aid the formation of rain due to cloud drops bumping into each other and sticking together; collisions and coalescence because large dust particles can accelerate this process by forming large initial drops at the bottom of the cloud where drops first condense. Here, drops are nearly always too small to bump together and join up unless clouds are deep, like our summer ones, and ice is going to form anyway.

So, yesterday, was a bit of a novelty. Some photos and story telling:

The late Jack Russell, engineer, listening to Art tell another cloud investigation story. — The late Jack Russell, flight engineer, listening to Art tell another cloud investigation story.

2:43 PM. Cumulus humilis field over Saddlebrooke.

3:06 PM. Drizzle precip just a memory. These clouds too shallow to rain. — 3:06 PM. Drizzle precip just a memory. These clouds too shallow to rain via collisions, and too warm to form ice.

Looking ahead….

Mods paint dry weather for the next 15 days, and so yesterday’s disappointing “trace” (don’t recall here that Mr. Cloud Maven person had predicted at least 0.02 inches!) may be it for October. Phooey.

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¹Drizzle: Fine (size range, 200-500 microns in diameter drops) close together, that nearly float in the air. Very difficult to bicycle in drizzle even with a cap or big hat. Fallspeeds, just a few mph. Smaller sizes can’t make it out of the cloud, or evaporate within a few feet almost if they do. Even true drizzle occurrences, you can’t be too far below the base of the clouds or those tiny drops won’t make it down to you.

²What is a “large” dust particle in a cloud? Oh, 1-10 microns in diameter, real rocks compared with the other stuff normally in them. So’s you get a drop that’s already pretty large as soon as condensation takes places. And, if the updrafts are weak at the bottom, then only them big ones might be activated, keeping the whole cloud’s droplet concentrations low! Happens even in places in the middle of huge land masses where in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, we saw this happen on a dusty, moist day in shallow Stratocumulus clouds. They developed some drizzle drops. I was with the National Center for Atmos. Research on a field project then.

³1988: Rain from Clouds with Tops Warmer than -10 C in Israel (Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.)

Mediocre clouds followed by a brilliant sunset

In case you missed it, this eye-candy from last evening as a crepuscular ray highlight some lower Altocumulus below the main layer:

6:42 PM. Was gasping after sprinting up hill in an obsessive-compulsive pulse to get this shot. But it was worth it.

Now, for the rest of the day. The Cumulus clouds with tops flattening into Stratocumulus were a bit disappointing, their tops, in a few places, did reach the level where ice would form in them and virga and a few light rainshowers fell out. Remember, gotta have ice to have precip is Arizona, mostly.

1:21 PM. Larger patch of Cumulus, spreading out due to a "stable layer" has reached upward to begin forming some ice. That fallout of ice is causing the base to look a little too smooth. If you can detect this, you have reached the pinnacle of cloud maven-ness. — 1:21 PM. Larger patch of Cumulus, spreading out due to a “stable layer” has reached upward to begin forming some ice. That fallout of ice is causing the base to look a little too smooth. If you can detect this, you have reached the pinnacle of cloud maven-ness. Its just beginning to come out, very hard to detect at this point, more obvious in minutes. Even I wasn’t sure at this point, but hedged an opinion about it to myself.

1:42 PM. Same patch trailing ice, though not much. Still a difficult proposition to see it. — 1:42 PM. Same patch trailing ice, though barely. Still a difficult proposition to see it. Its just SLIGHTLY frizzy/fuzzy at the bottom, a look due to low concentrations of single crystals and a few snowflakes.

2:08 PM. Now the presence of ice is obvious. You have a wonderful itty-bitty rain shaft reaching the ground, and an ice veil around the edges of this cloud. Even a little baby could see that there was ice now. — 2:08 PM. Now the presence of ice is obvious. You have a wonderful itty-bitty rain shaft reaching the ground, and an ice veil around the edges (upper left) of this cloud. Even a little baby could see that there was ice now. But as little and as long as it took to form and fallout, you would guess that the top was marginally cold for ice formation, a superb scenario for research aircraft. From last evening’s TUS sounding, looks like they were barely ascending past the -10 C (14 F) level, maybe to -12 C to -13 C here in those tops that overshot a little inversion at -8 C. Those flat-topped Altocumulus clouds that rolled in during the evening as the sun set had tops around -8 C, just a little too warm for ice to form in them.

3:27 PM. But that TUS sounding was not indicative of the air just a 100 or so miles south of us where large and deep Cumulonimbus arose. Can you see a Cb calvus top in this photo? It was pretty exciting to think that air capable of producing large storms was so close after it looked for awhile like a longish dry spell. The moisture was returning faster than models foretold a few days ago.

3:26 PM. — 3:27 PM Zoomed view of distant Cumulonimbus calvus top, far easier to see without the smog of the day before!

Today, the inversion is gone, and dewpoints are increasing all over southern Arizona as we start into a real tropical push. So chances of rain here in Catalina are zooming upward. Should be some nice “Cbs” around.

Tropical storm Lorena is headed toward the tip of Baja and its remnants will come into southern California and Arizona over the next few days. Hang on for some potential mighty rains, something to bring our summer rain season totals to more respectable levels here in Catalina. Very excited, as are all local weather folk!

Also, no end to summer rain season yet appearing in mod run extending out for two weeks (from last evening’s global data crunch). Still seems to hang on, for the most part, through the 20th of September. Excellent.

Another repeat of a late bloom again; upper air ridge, summer rain pattern, to stay secure for remainder of month

Worn out from yesterday, which resembled the day before with the late “bloom” of fabulously photogenic Cumulonimbus clouds, much lightning, and an equally fabulous sunset. Took too many photos (200 plus I think) kind of out of control, due to excessive excitement again; hard drive filling up. Locating brain now in this cup of coffee.

First, before the cloud photo diary for yesterday, this wonderful, uplifting look at the weather way ahead from NOAA’s spaghetti forecasting machine last night, calculated from global data taken around the world, to be redundant, at 5 PM AST last evening, valid for 5 PM AST Friday, August 30th:

Isn’t this great?! One of the best maps I’ve seen this summer. Looks like the summer rain season¹hereabouts will be in pretty good force through the end of August now after abosrbing this NOAA check of chaos theory. Maybe Sutherland Heights will catch up to our average rainfall for July and August by the end of the month, 6-7 inches. Now sitting on only 3.2 inches since July 1st.

Yesterday’s clouds and storms

Here’s how it all started:

10:38 AM. Cumulus specks began to appear over Lemmon an hour or two earlier than the previous day, always a good trend. — 10:38 AM. Cumulus specks began to appear over Ms. Lemmon an hour or two earlier than the previous day, always a good trend.

11:21 AM. Early sign of an aroused atmosphere, one ready to produce deep clouds. Thin, spindly clouds shooting upward rapidly, possibly in the formation of an obscene jesture. — 11:21 AM. Early sign of an aroused atmosphere, one ready to produce deep clouds. Thin, spindly clouds shooting upward rapidly, sometimes, as here, in the formation of an obscene gesture.

12:57 PM. And before 1 PM, this early Cb (calvus) off the mountains! I was really preparing for giant storms ALL day in the area. But, that's NOT what happened. They faded soon after this. Ms. Lemmon, nevermind the raging heat, became devoid of clouds. It was nothing less than astonishing that it could be cloud free in the middle of the afternoon with such an "auspicious" if rude, early start on Cumulus clouds. — 12:57 PM. And before 1 PM, this early Cb (calvus) off the mountains to the NW! I was really preparing for giant storms ALL day in the area. But, that’s NOT what happened. They faded soon after this. Ms. Lemmon, never mind the raging heat, became devoid of clouds. It was nothing less than astonishing that it could be cloud free in the middle of the afternoon with such an “auspicious”, if rude, early start of Cumulus clouds.

3:08 PM. Its 106 F in Sutherland Heights. This view of piddly-pooh Cumlus clouds over the Catalinas didn't seem possible, in a sense, an amazing sight. All the day's early promise was somehow gone, drier air was moving in, and that thought made the heat even more intolerable, though I don't mind it myself, adding a personal note here. — 3:08 PM. Its 106 F in Sutherland Heights. This view of piddly-pooh Cumlus clouds over the Catalinas didn’t seem possible, in a sense, an amazing sight. All the day’s early promise was somehow gone, drier air was moving in, and that thought made the heat even more intolerable, though I don’t mind it myself, adding a personal note here.

3:25 PM. Its a 107 F; cloud drought over the Catalinas continues. May seem silly, but this was just an incredible sight I thought.

5:51 PM. Within half an hour, the Cumulus began to perk up. Could the same thing happen, that sudden explosion of Cumulus into Cumulonimbus like yesterday occur AGAIN? Yes. — 5:51 PM. Within half an hour, the Cumulus began to perk up. Could the same thing happen, that sudden explosion of Cumulus into Cumulonimbus like yesterday occur AGAIN? Yes

5:51 PM. "Muffin" Cu congestus, center, has top high enough already to produce ice and precip! — 5:51 PM. “Muffin” Cu congestus, center, has top high enough already to produce ice and precip!

6:13 PM, 22 min later. "Muffin" Cu cong has grown into a small Cumulonimbus with this pretty rainshaft. — 6:13 PM, 22 min later. “Muffin” Cu cong has grown into a small Cumulonimbus with this pretty rainshaft. But LOOK at how the clouds have filled in toward Sutherland H.!

6:53 PM. By this time more clouds were building upward, joining the fray, as here, and the whole sky was filling in. There was some stupendous cloud to ground lightning strikes with this one, but didn't capture them. — 6:53 PM. By this time more clouds were building upward, joining the fray, as here, and the whole sky was filling in. There was some stupendous cloud to ground lightning strikes with this one, but didn’t capture them.

7:05 PM. Hard to put into words how pretty a sight this was, and so dramatic, full of portent.

7:18 PM, 13 min later, the dump has come. This was the cell that produced almost continuous lightning toward the west into the early evening.

7:14 PM. In the meantime, this cloud base was expanding in the upwind direction toward Saddlebrooke-Charoleau Gap, eventually to be our rain-producer last evening. — 7:14 PM. In the meantime, this cloud base was expanding in the upwind direction toward Saddlebrooke-Charoleau Gap, eventually to be our rain-producer last evening just after 8 PM AST.

Today’s weather? You’ll want to see Bob’s view and, of course, that of the TUS NWS, or your favorite TEEVEE forecaster’s. U of AZ experts though today would be better than yesterday!

The End.

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¹Sometimes confused with the “monsoon” of India and south Asia, which is really a MONSOON with a giant low center circulating air around it for millions and millions of square miles. Hey, Jabalpur had 17 centimeters of rain yesterday, 6.70 inches, and the rain is supposed to get heavier in the next couple of days!