Everyone knows its windy

Well, its not windy1 yet, but it will be, and everyone knows it.  The infamous “Tonopah Low”,  as the ancient weathermen called it, is now in formation over Tonopah, Nevada,  as a big bad trough roars into California, over the Sierras, and into the Great Basin today and tomorrow.  We should have noticeable winds by mid-day, a dramatic accompaniment to some pretty Cirrus clouds, ones that will be chugging along up there at 100 mph or so.  The U of AZ mod also suggests a few mid-level clouds, ones likely to be brief Cirrocumulus patches (those clouds having tiny granulations that make them look higher than they really are) or Ac lenticulars NE of Ms. Lemmon;  also off to the north of Catalina, as the moistness aloft increases later in the day.  Cirrus likely to devolve into thicker Altostratus.  Watch for a great sunset today, since holes far to the west of us in these higher clouds are possible that would allow the fading sun to light up the bottoms of the high and middle clouds after it sets.  Hope so, anyway.

I am really happy for you today since this will be the really first interesting cloud day in awhile.  You might consider leaving work around lunchtime so you don’t miss anything, like some iridescence around the Cc.

Of course, the late April cold air blast, mentioned here so long ago in a blog that I might get a forecasting award of some kind2, will hit tomorrow as the cold front (sudden drop in temperature, barometer rises instantly, and wind shifts) hits later tomorrow morning.  Have jacket ready.

Looks like this cold front, with the jet stream sagging over us or slightly to the south, will be enough for a little rain now, a tenth of an inch likely the most that can fall.  Still, it will be something to break up the monotonous string of zero precip days.

Now I will look at the AZ mod precip output and see if there is any credibility to that rain amount mentioned just above.  (Oh, fer Pete’s Sake, accum precip run ends at 1 AM today here a few minutes before 5 AM AST.)

Well, the WRF GOOFUS model run,  based on global data taken at 5 PM AST yesterday, did have some rain here tomorrow morning.   Rain for Catalina and environs has been coming and going in various outputs for days on end.

The Cirrus will be gone tomorrow, but with lots on interesting lower clouds, some having  ice in them, will produce nice picaresque views of the Catalinas as clouds and shadows of clouds roll across them after the front goes by and the clearing takes place.

The Weather WAY ahead:

Very “troughulent”, in a word.

A lower latitude trough will be affecting this area not too long after this current big boy passes starting a few days into May.  With those lower latitude troughs usually comes just high and middle clouds with their spectacular sunrises and sunsets, and their presence keeps the temperature from spiking to astrological levels due to those clouds, but also because the air aloft is a little cooler in a trough than when an upper level high pressure area (a region of deep warm air) is squatting on top of us.  So, really ovenly weather will be MOSTLY held at bay as we roll into May.  Yay.

Once in a while, one of those persistent troughs, too, can scoop up some real moisture from the tropics and bring some rain here, so there’s even a chance of May rain as this situations develops.  This troughy situation begins to develop about 8 days out now, around May 4th, but persists beyond the 10th.

Check out the spaghetti for the morning of May 10th to see what I am talkin’ about:

See arrow that points to the general area in which you live.  Note, too, where all the red lines are, big gap over the West until the blueish lines, indicating a pretty darn reliable forecast even this far out.
See arrow that points to the general area in which you live. Note, too, where all the red lines are, big gap over the West until the blueish lines, indicating a pretty darn reliable forecast even this far out.
























The End


1TItle is a pathetic reference to a popular but crappy IMO song from the 60s.

2Actually, I didn’t think it up by myself, that forecast of cold air late in April, but relied on the NOAA spaghetti factory to give me a heads up, so that if I was to get an award, I would have to acknowledge and thank the NOAA folks who produce spaghetti for their work in supporting my efforts, and I couldn’t have done it without them.