This link will bring up the window below. There’s a little tutorial below on what to do once when you get to this window:
When you get to this page, the latest model run data will come up in red. Here, to see precipitation in colors on a map, click on the name, “1000_500_thick” for the best view of the many Arizona precipitation days ahead. You will see the precipitation totals for three (or six hours late in the model run) for the next 15 days as calculated by the WRF-GFS model, considered OUR best, but not as good as the Euro model some say1.
This is the same stuff that is rendered so nicely by IPS MeteoStar. I thought I would take you to the source, since its available an hour or two before the IPS renderings are completed.
In sum, its pretty amazing to see this many days with rain predicted so late in March and I thought you should see it, maybe brighten your day up.
Below , your March rain parade, a list of the NINE days with rain in the “general2” Catalina area from this latest model run based on global obs at 11 PM AST last night:
12 RW- VCTY3 (today)
13 RW- VCTY (recall, too, that spaghetti suggested an enhanced chance of rain between March 11-15th some coupla weeks ago)
14, 15, 16, 17 No rain indicated on these days
18 RW- VCTY
19 RW- VCTY
20 RW- VCTY
21 R4
22 RW- VCTY
23, 24, 25 No rain indicated on these days
26 RW- VCTY
27 R
Below, a peak at the latest 15 day spaghetti plot based on last evening’s 5 PM AST global data. I think you can see that there will be a lot going on in 15 days …
Your cloud day today
Heavy dense deep middle clouds with sprinkles in the area are passing overhead now. Will give way to an at least partial clearing in the late afternoon, meaning a great sunset is likely.
Rain not likely to be measurable today.
Yesterday’s cloud shot
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1Remember how Superstorm Sandy, the one that battered the East Coast a couple of years ago, was better predicted by Euro mod rather than our own model, causing quite a weather flap?
2“General” is taken here as any rain that falls within a 10 mi radius of Catalina.
3“RW- VCTY” is text for “Light rain showers in the vicinity” (of Catalina, not necessarily ON Catalina, but we hope so.
4“R”, indicates steady rain of moderate intensity, namely that the models are predicting more substantial rain here where an “R” appears.
5As soon as I formulated this description about a protruding or tufted top, I realized it could be taken as untoward, perhaps even a salacious reference. Are we men so cursed that it’s always about the woman, the things we think6?
6As a further example, on a Cumulus cloud study in the Marshall Islands, I was acting as the person responsible for which clouds to sample with our research aircraft7, I noted a newly risen Cumulus turret a minute or two ahead, on the right. Speaking to the Director of the Cloud and Aerosol Group, Peter Hobbs, I reported over the intercom that there was a “young, firm, protuberant Cumulus cloud at 2 O’clock”, “Shall we penetrate it?”, I asked.
“Yes, they’re the best ones”, Peter replied.
The all male crew burst out laughing.
Q. E. D.
7A Convair 580 Turboprop. See below:
