More rain to fall in March; water STILL running in the Sutherland Wash!

The author has made two claims.  Let us look at the evidence, the first of which was obtained yesterday morning in support of one of those.  A hiker/walker, the author met, we will call him, “Bob”,  though it seems doubtful that’s his real name since he had quite a strong northern European accent,  said there was no running water in the Sutherland Wash, “only dampness.”

This proved to be an incorrect statement.  I wonder how many other people I have corrected just now?

The wash has now been running without interruption for about six weeks.  Below, two photos with dogs in them taken yesterday of the flowing Sutherland  Wash at the Baby Jesus trail head, aka, “The Cottonwoods”:

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8:42 AM. The Sutherland Wash in flow near the Baby Jesus trail head.
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8:42 AM. Dog ponders a drink from the FLOWING Sutherland Wash at the Baby Jesus trail head.

Q. E. D.

2) Can it rain again in March in the Sutherland Heights (epicenter of the above titular forecast)?

It could, but the assertion by the author is stronger than “could.”  Let us again look at the evidence for such a claim.

There are several opportunities for rain here during the remainder of March.

1) the upper low that goes over tomorrow and Friday will produce scattered mountain showers in the area;  a sure thing, but  light ones.

2) then that SAME low, after nesting in the Tropics for a couple of days comes back over us with an even greater chance of rain next week since its had a chance to scoop up some tropical air (think Altocumulus castellanus, unstable clouds that can become little Cumulonimbus clouds).

3) In the longer term, “troughiness” (“cyclonicity”) is indicated to reside in our Great Southwest by spaghetti maps.  Some individual model runs have even had big rains in the area in 12-15 days from now.   Below, an example from IPS MeteoStar, which for some reason did not follow through on the “fee-for-service” they had been announcing was coming for about three months so’s that we would have to pay to look at their nice renderings of government model stuff1:

Boffo trough bops Arizona on
Boffo trough bops Arizona on…ooops, annotated version below to help you locate Arizona on this map.
Forecast map valid at
Forecast map valid on March 25th at 5 PM AST.

Another example of the wettest model run I could find, trillions and trillions of galloons of water released in storms in the SW:

Forecast map valid on Saturday, March 21st at 11 AM AST.
Forecast map valid on Saturday, March 21st at 11 AM AST.

So, at LEAST three or four days in the remaining days of March with a chance of measurable rain, and THAT equals 100 % chance of rain falling within a 10 mile radius of the Sutherland Heights housing district between now and, and pushing the forecasting frontier even farther, say, the end of March!  Going that far with such high confidence (100%) forecast is inappropriate for professional forecasting, but not here.  So, this is a forecast for measurable rain on or VERY near us covering an amazing 19 days!

BTW, spaghetti thinks a trough of the magnitude above is goofy; see below.  HOWEVER, there is a pretty strong tendency for cyclonic action here, just not as strong as the one above.  The one above is likely goofy, an outlier model run….at this time.  But, just like that New England win over the Seahawks in the last second when the Seahawks were about to run it in, but goofily passed the ball instead for an interception, outliers do occur.

Will keep an eye on this fun forecast from this keyboard,  and get back to you from time to time IF it rains in the area.  Otherwise, you will not hear from me again on this matter.

Below, some morning spaghetti for you.

Valid at 5 PM AST, March 26th.  No sign of bluish lines penetrating the SW US.  However, red lines, southern portion of jet stream, do dip southward over the SE and northern Mexico, indicating a good chance of lower latitude troughs here at the time of this map.
Valid at 5 PM AST, March 26th. No sign of bluish lines, representing the heart of the jet stream penetrating the SW US as shown in that model run above.    However, red lines, southern portion of jet stream, do dip southward over the SE and northern Mexico, indicating a good chance of lower latitude troughs here at the time of this map.  Note that the blue and red lines suggest an “out of phase” jet stream pattern, highs in the far north, disturbances leaking into the SW US underneath them.

So hope for additional rain before the end of March is not dead, as it seems today, but has much life, in fact, to repeat, “100%” life.

The End

 

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1Whew!