Its 86 F at 4:21 AM… Yeow! Has this happened before? I’m feeling like a Phoenician, where with all that pavement up thataway, they have the hottest nighttime temperatures, biggest “urban heat island”) of any city in the land. Often 15 degrees cooler in the country outside that vast sprawl of pavement.
Started to get real discouraged yesterday as afternoon started with nothing beyond Cumulus mediocris over the Catalina Mountains as of 1:30 PM; where were those growth spurts predicted by the model over the Catalina Mountains?
Looking downstream from the Catalinas and over Oro Valley, where a cloud street was trailing off, finally one turret climbed high enough to produce a little rainshaft! Wasn’t even sure that even rain would fall until I saw that shaft.
In case it was the only shower of the day, I zoomed in on it to make it look bigger than it really was for my reader. Its an old photography trick I learned early in my weather forecasting career.
This meant that tops had ascended through a slight inversion, capping yesterday’s clouds and had climbed to at least 22 to 23 KFT above sea level yesterday where the temperature was at least a low as -10 C, necessary for ice formation on most days in Arizona. Ice, as you know, is almost always required for rain here, even on the hottest days, strangely believe it.
Finally, within another hour, thunder began to be heard from enlarging clouds around us:
Gee, mods have dried us out today, so only heat, almost no chance of rain here today! As with yesterday, that easterly wind will cause clouds, once formed late this morning, to drift downwind off the Catalinas and over Catalina and the north portion of Oro Valley. So, if you want to find some cloud shadows to be under, those are the places to be at the hottest time of day. Could be some virga, but likely little if any will reach the ground today due to the “deep frying” aspect of the air below cloud bases.
Spaghetti makes it look like very few good summer rain days in the next two weeks since it indicates that our big upper high will be close to overhead rather than to the north of us. Darn.