I have a dream….

And here it is in the panel below, a pretty wet one, hmmmm, “rainy one”,  for Catalina, one that came out from yesterday’s model run based on the 11 AM AST global data.  The panel below is valid for 11 PM, Thursday October 11th, just 11 days from yesterday.  That blue square over Catalina indicates that this model run calculated that 0.75 to 1.00 inches of rain would fall in the preceding 12 h of that Thursday, the 11th.  How great would that be after this LONG boring and hot dry spell?  I’ve had it with dry!

There is so much rain in this panel for us due to the remnants of another tropical storm whooshing into AZ from the Mexican Pacific south of Baja.  That draw northward to us due to an upper low over southern Cal steering it northward.

I don’t want to talk about the new model run from last night’s later 5 PM AST global data. There must be a mistake of some kind in it not to show any rain here in Catalina in THOSE calculations.  It falls all around us, but not here.

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Well, as we know, that Catalina rain in yesterday’s model run, rain that could fall anywhere from the 8-12th, or even on all those days if we’re really lucky, is likely to come and go in these model runs.  The only thing we do know FOR SURE (and this from the “spaghetti” plots), is that rain will be nearby at some point during that period, it will be much cooler, and more typical of fall weather rather than the heat we have now.

The End.

No, update, here at 4:54 AM:  the new model run based on still later data, that from 11 PM AST last night, has rain back over us!   Its not nearly as much as the “dream map.”  Starts on the evening of Wednesday the 10th and goes  through evening of the 11th.

These “manic-depressive” NOAA model runs (ones that can be seen here) are likely to continue, one after another.  So, a bull’s eye, dream rain is still possible.  See lastest spaghetti plot below for confirmation of this assertion.  Veterinarian spaghetti plot interpreters will plainly see what’s ahead around the afternoon of the 11 th of October in the plot below from the 5 PM global data…(you can see the whole series here):