Kenneth, that spinny thing with the eye hole, shown in this 24 h loop feasting on the warm waters about 500 miles south of Cabo, seems inclined to drop in late on Thanksgiving Day with his leftovers. How rude and wonderful at the same time! Most of you (2 of 3 the three people who read this blog) will find this 24 h loop quite interesting and you might spend your whole day here questioning, “What does it all mean?”, like the philosophers do. So, be careful and don’t let your whole day slip away here. I’m tempting you…
Check out these two snapshots for TG evening and Friday morning from this model run from the Canadians and the streamer of rain and moisture that comes in to SE Arizona on Thursday (lower two panels):
Of course, many of you may feel the Canadian model runs should be banned from this site based on some recent over-predictions of rain here. And so you may wonder why I have gone back to a model that has let us “Catalonians” down so much recently.
Why, in fact, DO I show this Canadian model output?
Because it has the most rain for SE AZ in it compared to other model runs, just like the last time it let us down! I couldn’t help it.
Look at all that red coloring in the 2nd image, lower left panel for Friday morning (indicating the amount that fell in the prior 12 h while we were over eating and then trying to sleep on an overly full tummy but we might have a pounding rain to provide a “white noise” to help us get through that tough night)! (Stream of consciousness writing there).
Only yesterday, that same model showed the leftovers from Ken bypassing us for New Mexico. Sure they need the rain, too, but this run from last night made me happier. So, I am quite happy this morning with this model change showing more rain here in spite of set backs in other areas of life which I caused myself, dammitall, by not waiting to get more facts and instead relying on gossip in forming a key assessment that ultimately resulted in an inappropriate action that ruined a friendship. (More stream of consciousness writing…) Oh, well, back to weather…
We have to remember that this model run is the LATEST run, and therefore is based on “mo better data” because its closer to the predicted event than those model runs that did NOT show so much rain here. So, as a “scientist” I can show this latest run that shows what I want to happen and hold my head up as a truly objective observer since it was based on newer stuff; it wasn’t just ME wanting rain. On, the other hand, I hid from you those earlier model runs before this one that did not have much rain here with this “incoming” (trough).
So, in sum, you ARE getting a selective presentation of OBJECTIVELY produced data. I wonder if anybody else does this?
Also, yesterday was truly stunning in clouds, with some honest-to-goodness Cumulonimbus clouds sprouting up yesterday morning. They were so pretty. And you got to see great examples of cloud tops “glaciating” (turning to ice) right before your eyes. Didn’t hear any thunder, but there could have been some. And then we had the late afternoon sun and those dramatic cloud shadows (produced by those much shallower Cumulus clouds) on the Catalinas. Here are some examples for your visual pleasure. BTW, we didn’t get hit by the cell cores. So, rainfall here was only 0.02 inches; 0.03 inches, at Sutherland Heights (last photo).
The End except for this part. Many of you have asked, “What was that recent quote by Mr. Cloud-Maven person in the Wall Street Journal about, anyway?” Maybe they had the wrong Cloud-Maven person…
Well actually no one has asked that question… But its an interesting story (I think) for those who write about science probably than for those who do science (he sez). Maybe, in a display of particular grandiosity–after all, only the great scientists of our day are asked his/her opinion about a matter of scientific import in the WSJ!–explain what that was all about one of these days. Smiling very megalomaniacally here. Hahahahah, sort of.