This is great! I thought sure that the Canadian model, which has been a bit of an outlier, would take that jet of moisture and rain emanating from the remains of Kenneth the Hurricane away. But no, yesterday morning’s Canadian run had it cruising into us with a bountiful rain, and now overnight, once again as it first did on the night before last. So, for three consecutive model runs, this torrent of moisture from Ken, ejects rapidly over us. Stupefying! Today we might call this small-in-length ejection of water vapor and clouds an “atmospheric flash flood” (too short in length to be called an “atmospheric river“, the new buzz phrase for West Coast flooding scenarios when long fetches of tropical air thousands of miles long in narrow bands ahead of fronts cause deluges).
Here, with gratitude to the Canadians, most of whom live with two miles of the US because they want to be as far south as they can get and are practically Americans anyway, is last night’s model run, showing that fine, fine looking low pressure center encroaching on southern California in 24 h. Its that low that starts to eject the body parts from “Kenneth” at us. I am just beside myself with joy!
They made me happy today with this sequence (extracted from here). You’ll want to concentrate on the LOWER RIGHT HAND PANELS and those green to yellow and red regions where RAIN is expected in the 12 h PRECEDING the map VALID time. Unless you click on these images you will have to have a microscope to see what I am talking about.
The valid times are, from left to right, Thanksgiving Day at 5 AM AST, Thanksgiving Day when eating turkey (5 PM AST), and 5 AM AST Friday morning. What is remarkable is how fast the rain develops after just appearing on that first panel off southern Baja. By nightfall, the model thinks rain will have started here! Wow! That would mean an awful lot of, probably middle and high clouds, are already in place streaming toward us ahead of the nub of that rain area shown in the first panel.
If we go to the University of Washington Huskies’ Atmospheric Sci Dept web site and this loop, you can see that it’s already happening, high clouds (shown as white regions in this loop) are already being torn from poor Kenneth down there. Keep an eye (Kenneth’s is pretty much gone) on that bulge on the NNE side in the last couple of frames. That’s likely where our jet of moisture will originate.
Will be cleaning out rain gauge of dust and debris; maybe will wax collector funnel so that those raindrops really accelerate into that inner measuring tube. Hope you do, too. You don’t want to leave anything out there, on the sports field, or on the funnel.