May to have measurable rain in Catalina and environs!

This is great news, heard here first of course (haha),  after a pitiful April with no measurable rain.  Poor desert.

Its been suggested by the NOAA spaghetti factory for some time, but now actual precipitation is showing up in the models pretty regularly for around May 8th and thereafter, and so we can gleefully start dusting off our umbrellas, seeing if we have enough change for the car wash afterwards, etc.

Even WU (Weather Underground) is starting to catch up, showing about a 3% (THREE percent!) chance of rain at that time from last night’s model output.   Its “waymore better” (a nice name for someone) than that, I think, though its not 100% yet.   That percentage should be climbing as the days get closer.

WU chances of rain for Catalina, as posted early this morning. Watch it rise, I hope....
WU chances of rain for Catalina, as posted early this morning. Watch it rise, I hope….


BTW, Have never seen such a pronounced “retrogression” as that shown today  over such a vast region of the globe in those spaghetti plots, and that’s why I’ve taken to the air today.

The good news for AZ-ians is that we get placed in a trough in the lower latitudes, albeit a weak one;  a dip in “jetty jet stream” to the south over us  (meaning cooler temperatures than average aloft should prevail) with some enhanced chances for rain after our main chances coming right up on the 8th and beyond for a couple of days.

As you know already, ovenly weather for this time of year,  with temperatures far above average,  is just ahead,  which takes a big, fat high pressure dome aloft over us.  That high will dissipate as “troughy” conditions begin to shape up toward the weekend.

So, venturing farther,  it would seem a reasonable temperature first half of May is ahead, with RAIN,  after the “meltdown” later this week.

Time for a random thought before closing:

A cactus can be a beautiful thing, can’t it?DSC_3390The End

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.