Measurable rain to fall in March 2016

…in case you were wondering at this point.

Looks like it will be on March 7th.  Pretty sure thing at this point, maybe 75%-99% chance of rain here in Catalina, combining “spaghetti1” with other forms of forecasting.

7 AM AST Addendum:  Hell, why not go for some amounts due to extra confidence:

Min in The Heights: 0.20 inches (10% chance of less); max, 1.00 inches (10% chance of more). The average of these “mental ensemble2” extrema, 0.60 inches, which is usually closer to the actual value.

This best guess estimate for the total between midnight March 7th and the evening of the 8th, or over about a 42 h period.  Weather gaming is fun.

What’s your prediction?

—————-T. I. P.————————————

Remember, too, as a “truth in packaging” disclosure statement, that this forecast is being made by the SAME person who forecast about 12 days ago or so,  rain here in the last week of February which didn’t happen, along with large Cal and AZ blasting storms in early March.

In fact, here and in southern Cal, we had “anti-rain” in the last week of February!  This in the form of high temperatures, dry air,  and that combination resulting in unusually high  evapotranspiration rates with those high temperatures (anti-rain, since whatever surface water, soil moisture, plant moisture is disappearing into the air).  In other words, that forecast could hardly have been more incorrect.

Hell, to cuss some more, almost as bad as those forecasts for a drier than normal winter (DJF) for the Pac NW by big forecasting authorities like the Oregon State Climatologist among many others.

In fact, when they were making those forecasts, they were staring at record wetness in the Pac NW!  Incredible!  Both SEA and PDX have set DJF records for the amount of rain this winter!  Wow.  It doesn’t get much worse than that, except maybe here sometimes.

People are mad, too, in southern Cal where they were advised to buy sandbags due to the excessive flooding and rains foretold for their winter.   Well, we’ll see if March can bring back some of the lost credibility, though, frankly, its hard to do.

Think of all those global warming forecasts of a steady rise in global temps made back in the early part of this century which didn’t happen.  Wow.   Lost some credibility there, and those forecasters had to move to a new expression, “climate change” to cover up the bad forecast.

Temps on  the rise now, so watch out!  “Global warming” rising from the ashes more and more now, too.

Changing the subject quickly, the Washington Huskies softball team had a pretty great weekend at the Mary Nutter Classic Tournament in Cathedral City, CA, where it was real hot (90 F), too.  The University of Washington was the writer’s former employer.

Whistling here:  where are you Niño?  Com’ere!  Hmmmph,   nice name for a dog I think, which is what it has been so far for the Southwest.

The End

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1 Formally, called “Lorenz plots” by yours truly, and should be by others.

Valid on March 7th. All the red lines are WAY down there in Baja California central. Means a pretty sure thing the jet stream will be south of us when this incoming trough goes by and as you know well by now, when the jet at THIS level is south of us, you almost always get rain. Some 95% of the rain that falls in Tucson falls with the jet at this circumscribing us.
Valid at 5 PM AST on March 7th. All the red lines are WAY down there in Baja California central. Means a pretty sure thing that the jet stream will be south of us when this incoming trough goes by and as you know well by now, when the jet at THIS level is south of us, you almost always get rain. Some 95% of the Nov-Apr rain that falls in Tucson falls with the jet at this level to the south of us.

 

2No way is this from some big computer somewhere!

4 thoughts on “Measurable rain to fall in March 2016”

  1. Art: We didn’t set a record for the 3 month period (Dec.-Feb) here, but I can tell you I wouldn’t mind a “weather exchange” with you guys for, say, a week? We’ll take a week of your sunshine and you can have a week of our rain. Okay?

    1. Well, Roland, its been a sad week or so for forecasters everywhere, and by that I mean me personally and not all forecasters, as unforecasted-from-so-long-ago dry, toasty weather resembling April continues here, not the rains expected by now, and you continue to get blasted up there in Molsonland along with the Pac 12 North.

      Looks like we FINALLY get a storm on the 7th-8th.

      You see, Roland, this is what happens (bad longer-term forecasting) when you are spring-loaded with Big Niño “confirmation bias.” Stuff like this happens all the time in science, too, when people go into research knowing in advance what they are going to find. Its a real problem in the cloud seeding domain, to be serious for a moment.

      And while I believe the earth will be getting warmer overall in the decades ahead, we still have to watch out for exaggerations in the climate domain as well. Remember what “climategate” told us about some of those major players in that domain.
      a

      1. Indeed, Art. Well, if I could say ONE area where the winter forecast went okay, it was in predicting the snowpack. I don’t have a current percentage of the normal amount over our local mountains available, but from what I’ve heard over the 3 months (and seen on occasion) is that we’ve done pretty good. The experts told us that it would be much better than the previous winter.

  2. Tell me one more time about how it’s a sure thing. Go ahead, I could use a good laugh.

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