The Niño we’ve been waiting for is back at last, thank God!

…in the models, that is, its not HERE yet.

I dropped everything I was working on, a kindle-sized science piece, after I saw what is being presented to us today.  Wanted to generate some happiness out there;  its just who I am, except maybe when I am talking about cloud seeding.  Then I get mad about all the shenanigans that have happened in that field, and I want you to be mad, too.   (Kidding, sort of).

Check this out in the annotated spaghetti if you don’t believe me:

Valid in 14 days! Which means, February 28th, 5 PM AST.
Valid in 14 days, 5 PM AST, February 28th I can’t wait! Its finally happening, that wet Niño period we’ve been waiting for all year, and have only seen sputtering in starts and stops.

Next, look at this behemoth, Mothra-sized jet street, oozing into the southern portion of the West Coast, the kind of thing we’ve been waiting for with the Godzilla-sized Niño, to allude to more monster movies, ones you probably went to, as a matter of fact.  From IPS MeteoStar, these delicious progs valid in about two weeks:

from 2-1506_2016021506_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_348
Valid Monday, February 29th, 11 AM.
Ann 2016021506_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_360
Valid Monday February 29th 11 PM AST.
down low 2016021506_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_372
Valid at 11 AM AST, Tuesday, March 1st.
Baja flooding 2016021506_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_384
Valid 11 PM AST, Tuesday, March 1st. Oh, my, this is incredible how far south this powerful jet is, scooping loads of moisture toward Baja, southern Cal and Arizona. This would be something if it materializes….

Now let us recalll that the models had almost exactly these kinds of forecasts back in early January, as Catalinans enjoyed some beneficial rains associated with storms looking like those expected with Niño winters.

Recall, too, that in an overzealous blog, your cloud maven person announced the destruction of California in a couple of weeks due to those incredible progs;  “FEMA get ready!” Homes to fall in ocean, couple feet to foot and a half of rain in the last two weeks or so alone. Well, there was only a little less than two feet of rain in that predicted time, and it was WAY up in the northern fringes of Cal. Homes, are falling into the ocean, though, due to the big surf that’s been occurring with big storms, too far off to make it rain much in Cal south of Frisco, though.  Still going on, too.

Now about what’s ahead, way ahead.

Once again I announce the destruction of portions of California due to exceptional storms now on the horizon in the models. And, its not too late for those kinds of storms–remember what happened at the tail of February into the first few days in March 1938 in southern California and Arizona.

Why possibly make the SAME mistake again?

Because we got us such a BIG Niño, and….I can’t remember what else.   Oh, yeah, I think it can’t be held off forever as far as generous SW rains go and I have been looking for this to happen.

Besides, let us, too, remember the 97-98 giant Niño. Remember how it appeared that not so much was happening into JANUARY except north of ‘Frisco in Cal, then the colossus hit all of the State and AZ in late January through February ’98?

Well, we’ve seen the northern portion of Cal get slammed, along with the Pac NW so far.

What if the transition to the blasters farther down the coast is a month late, in late February into March instead of late January into February as in ’98?  Could be.

That’s what I am thinking/kind of hoping for, too.

These “outlier” model predictions from the 06Z (11 PM AST global data) that just came in a couple of hours ago–there’s been NOTHING like them in ALL of the prior model runs, so that’s why they’re outliers at this point I think–represent the “REAL DEAL.” This is it.

The Cal calamity expected in January begins with these model runs, that is, occurs at the end of February into March. And who knows how long after that? Remember, the best of the Niños is in late winter and SPRING!

Disclaimer. Cloud Maven Person is overly worked up here, and credibility naturally goes downward if being worked up is going up.

This lowered credibility is due to subjective internal influences such as looking for a return of those astounding progs that came out in early January ever since.

But, I am SURE this time (like a compulsive gambler would say), the above progs have got it right now.  That Niño storms we have been looking for all this time will start to arrive before much longer.

The End.

4 thoughts on “The Niño we’ve been waiting for is back at last, thank God!”

  1. Art: All I’m wanting to know is if the rains will let up here where I live. I don’t think I’ll get a record wet February, but the past few days have been overcast and rainy, that’s for sure. Will “the hammer” miss me next week?

    1. Hi, Roland,

      I have not seen prog that goes beyond 6 days since I wrote that, but going blind and on a hunch, I would bet that you’ve seen the last of those day after day of major rains. I know friends in the Seattle area have had it with the wet Jan and February, something that was completely unforecast at the beginning of winter due to the Big Niño in which normally the major rains are in Cal and the SW. I think that’s what ahead now.


    1. Yep…… Mods had some great fake El Nino-style storms even just a few days ago; they’re gone lately. I may not write again about that the Big Niño FINALLY starting up, which would bring unwanted attention to prior belief in a poor forecast. You see I am spring-loaded for belief in model outputs showing vast storms crashing into California and the Great SW due to the Big Niño we got. Its called a subjective influence. I got it. a

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