Model predicted hurricane not passing over Tucson today

Catalinans were warned from this very blog weeks ago that a hurricane would definitely not pass over Tucson today, though our best model showed that happening.

Let us reprise that computer model prediction of a hurricane over Tucson and how wrong it was:

Valid at 5 PM today! Hurricane center is over Tucson (see arrow if you are unfamiliar with the United States and Arizona.)
Valid at 5 PM today! Hurricane center is over Tucson (see arrow if you are unfamiliar with the United States and Arizona.)

 

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Nice weather we’re having today, overcast Altostratus opacus (for the most part;  sun’s exact position not detectable) with embedded lenticular clouds, ones located to the WEST of the Catalinas, an unusual sight.   Also, there are sprinkles-its-not-drizzle-dammitall falling from this layer all around us.  We are currently in a “rain shadow” because of easterly flow aloft that had brought downslope drying to Catalina.

Those poor drops falling from that middle cloud layer of Altostratus (base estimated at 10,000 feet above the ground here at 9;26 AM AST) have almost no chance of reaching us until the wind weakens up there and/or changes direction, or the precip on the way down gets much heavier.

Here’s an example of our rain shadow as of 0900 AST this morning:

Ann2 rain shadow

I could post the images of this scene I’ve already taken today.  But that would be wrong.  This is not a “timely” websight/blog, but rather one that discusses the past.

The End

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.