Model trickeration, Dark Bluster, =s no rain!

You can see what didn’t happen here in the U of A time lapse movie.

I got pretty excited when the U of A Weather Department issued a special report yesterday morning on what the Beo Wolf cluster had come up with in terms of yesterday and today’s weather.  These kind of special, technical reports, ones that only I can read, not general people, except in the pictures and everybody can read those and can comprehend, are only issued during the best (worst storm) monsoon days.  So, it was VERY EXCITING for me to get in this special post in an e-mail.   The many model runs had some great thunderstorms and wind building up to the S and SE of us and roaring in across the Oro Valley-Catalina urban complex during the late afternoon and evening.  I was pumped.  SOMETHING was going to happen!

And, just as the models were thinking, “anvilation” (first photo) began to appear to the south through soiuthwest by late afternoon before the AZCats won the national NCAA Division I baseball title.  Sadly, that complex died out before getting here.

Then, over the Cat Mountains, things began to look more promising just before sunset (2nd shot).Cloud bases began looking more solid, not broken up into dark and light patches, and that solidity suggests an significant updraft over a wide area.  I thought, “Here it comes!”,  since those dark bases were moving off the Catalinas and toward us, possibly pushed by an outflow wind on the other side.  This kind of thing, as you know, happens all the time here.

But no, those bases fell apart, they were merely a phenomenon called “Dark Bluster” which nobody really understands, and the only thing that happened from those clouds was a light rainshower over by San Manuel I think, one that produced a weak rainbow (3rd shot).

Oh, well, at least the evening ended with a nice sunset and a national title.


Hit and miss showers/thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening hours again.  Nobody knows exactly where they will be so you’ll have to be watching.  Actually this is a pretty good deal for later June, often with no chances of rain at all.

Update at 9:17 AM:  Cumulus forming over the Catalinas!  This is about 4 h ahead of the past two days.  Is a darn good sign of more showers/thunderstorms today.

The End.

4:51 PM: Game about to start, complex of Cumulonimbus clouds stretches from S through SW of Catalina.