These are those amounts through January 10th. You can see why there’s been some flooding and reservoirs are getting filled up in central and northern Cal. This list is just those amounts above 15 inches during the first ten days1. A map can be found here.
Graphic says up through just Jan 10th, and there was a little more after this.
Our local model from the U of AZ indicates that rain should move in here during the afternoon. Watch for interesting clouds (but aren’t they ALWAYS interesting?)
That model is suggesting that a half inch might fall here in the Catalina area. However, note in the graphic below, pinched and magnified from that U of AZ model’s output, that we are in a “dry slot” due to the southerly and southeasterly winds aloft today that put us in the lee of the Catalinas. I would guessestimate that we’ll see, oh, maybe a third of an inch here in Sutherland Heights.
Predicted total rain by mid-day Sunday.
Yesterday’s clouds
Nice sunset bloom last evening when it looked like nothing was going to show. You have about three minutes to catch these sudden blooms due to thin clearing slots in the overcast to the west below the horizon:
5:42 PM. Here it comes!5:44 PM. Yep, just two minutes later, “Thar she shows!” The cloud layer being illuminated is…if you care, “Altostratus opacus virgae.” The stuff being illuminated is falling light snow.5:45 PM. Just about to end, less than four minutes from start to end. Note the odd linear streaks of virga on the horizon running S-N. Clueless here about why.
Farther ahead, a cold one’s still on tap, and the predictions are for an unusually strong low center to accompany this powerful cold front blasting in next Saturday. Look for some shingles to come off the roof (note to me).
The End
—————————- 1It’s pretty immodest of me to point this out, gloating, really, but I do want to do this, emphasize that it was mentioned here, I don’t know how long ago, that “20-30 inches of rain would call in Cal at favored locations” during the first two weeks of January. It was just incredible, to go on about it. Might be eligible for the Carl Gustav Rossby forecast of the year award, if there was one. (Caveat: usually these over the top, “seat-of-the-pants” forecasts I’ve made don’t materialize…though I don’t know why I added that qualifier. Kind of takes away from the glory I’m basking in right now!)
For fans of NOAA spaghetti, this plot generated from last evening’s global data. Really, the uncertainty is overwhelming:
Valid at 5 PM AST, January 27th.
Every so often one of these goofy ones comes out, a real knee-slapper. The real situation is that we have a series of storms on the doorstep, the stronger ones barging in on the 20th or so, as the bonafide spaghetti outputs were indicating. These will be cold ones; yes, cold ones on tap, with a good chance of snow in “Catalina-by-the-Mountains”, which might also be a good new name for our little CDP.
4:17 PM. Line of spreading out Altostratus translucidus. Many of you might have added, “radiatus” to that cloud name. “Clearly” it is widening as it passes over.
4:00 PM AST. That line of ice cloud looks pretty straight doesn’t it? Imagine how wide a cloud would have to spread, after seeing that Altostratus photo, to REALLY be radiating, spreading out!
As Einstein wrote, “Things are not always as they seem.”
Q. E. D.
Now, for the snow report
…from the Lake Tahoe area (after all, we made a BIG DEAL out of the incredible NWS, Reno, forecast in the prior blogulation):
0822 AM HEAVY SNOW NORTHSTAR 39.28N 120.12W
01/11/2017 M42.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC
NORTHSTAR AT TAHOE REPORTED 42 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. 48 HOUR TOTAL OF 78 INCHES AND A 7 DAY TOTAL OF 122 INCHES1.
1This note passed along to the Arthur by Mark Albright.
Looks like a bite has been taken out of the Cal drought this water year, a drought it was said would take years to end! Folsom Lake, near “Sacramenta”, Cal, has risen 30 feet in the past 30 days! Oh, my.
Now for some more of them cloud pictures…
Been holding out as other chores fill up the day:
7:19 AM, Jan 10. Pretty Altocumulus, some Cirrus above.Also 7:19 AM, Jan 10th. Time seems to be standing still, as we look a a cloudlet spewing heavy virga.7:22 AM, Jan 10th, time moving ahead again. Close up of that Altocumulus cloud with virga. Top must have been turreted, colder maybe a half hour or hour before this photo to have so much ice compared to its brethren. That’s the learning part of this sequence. Doesn’t look like an artifact from an aircraft because there is droplet cloud at the top, and not just a clear spot, which usually happens when an aircraft makes ice in a “supercooled” droplet cloud.5:14 PM, Jan 10th. THought this was a neat scene, Cirrus uncinus, the long trail of ice crystals falling behind, the overhead view.12:57 PM, Jan 8th. Makes you want to cry… This Cirrus spissatus is trying so HARD to be a precipitator all the way to the ground, and doesn’t know that those bottom ice crystals are evaporating 25,000 feet above it.
The weather just ahead
U of AZ latest mod output (from 11 PM AST last night) has a substantial rain on the doorstep. Starts here in Catalina Saturday afternoon with projected totals over half an inch nu mid-day Sunday. Check it out:
Totals valid at 11 AM AST, Sunday, Jan. 15th.
HECK, this storm wasn’t even predicted 10=12 days ago! The major weather change was indicated about the 20th, plus or minus a day. Those storms, indicated in the NOAA “spaghetti” plots more than 12 days ago, are still in the pipeline after we have a brief “recovery” from the “surprise” storm about to arrive on Saturday! Yay.
This sequence of storms is so great for the AZ water situation, too, as well as giving it to Cal good again around the 20th as well. No doubt, as the humans we are, the peoples of Cal will be complaining about TOO MUCH WATER!
This will lead to apathy about water issues, you can bet on it! See the well-known “cloud seeding cartoon” about drought and apathy posted so many decades ago in a journal article on cloud seeding by editorial nemesis1, Bernard A. Silverman, J. Appl. Meteor., termed the “Hydro-illogic Cycle”:
Published in 1978, but was around in the cloud seeding culture for many years before that. Used without permission. hahaha I believe it was drawn by the founder of Atmospherics, Inc., Tom Henderson’s daughter. Atmospherics, Incorporated performed numerous cloud seeding operations in the US and around the world beginning in the early 1950s. Yours truly worked for them on several occasions in the early 1970s as a “radar meteorologist” directing seeding aircraft. Later, I became a published critic, mostly with Prof. Peter V. Hobbs, of a number of cloud seeding projects.
The End
——————————- 1Nothing yours truly submitted during the era of BAS as Editor of the J. Appl. Meteor. “got in”, including the benchmark paper reporting that our own aircraft was creating ice in clouds at temperatures as high as -8° C. Three sole-authored papers critical of cloud seeding that I submitted were rejected in 1983 alone! All or parts of them were published years later.
The paper on our aircraft, submitted originally in 1981, was rejected twice before being accepted and published in 1983. The effect was confirmed in experiments conducted in the Mono Lakes area in 1991, by the president of Atmospherics, Inc. mentioned above! Aircraft produced ice particles at unexpectedly high temperatures is a now well-known phenomenon that researchers have to be aware of when re-sampling the same cloud with an aircraft at below freezing temperatures.
Soap box: It really is the editor of journals that determines whether you’re going to get in or not. They know, or should know, those who are going to keep you out or not, those with axes to grind, and those who are more objective. However, let me say this, I like Bernie. Has a great sense of humor. Below, Bernard A. Silverman. You can see the twinkle in his eye:
Bernard A. Silverman, publisher of the journal article containing the “Hydro-illogic Cycle” cartoon at the Cape Town, SA, 2006 WMO award ceremony for achievements in weather modification. He acknowledged in that 1978 article that he was a cloud seeding advocate.
We’re often confused with the California island, Catalina, and even places in Spain. Google “Catalina” and see if I am lying again. Oh, maybe that was Catalonia, SP…
Nevertheless, isn’t it time to think about a new name for our “Census Designated Place”, Catalina? In fact, at one time, each Catalina island and our Catalina, each had a marina to further confuse things by adding superficial similarities….
Think about it.
Some sunrise scenes among too many available to the writer from his camera card:
Let’s look at the Tortolita Mountains.Cirrocumulus on the fade.Highlighted Cirrocumulus.About as complex as a patch of Cirrocumulus could be. It did seem there were TWO levels of Cirrocu here, which might help explain criss-crossing patterns.Nice Altocumulus lenticularis in the usual spot downwind of Lemmon when the flow is from the W-SW up there.Wide angle view of our spectacular sunrise. How you experienced it live.
Now, for sunset color:
5:47 PM. Will think of something later.
As you may know, there is some violent weather hitting the West Coast, California in particular. Let’s see what the Reno office of the NWS has to say about the incoming storm:
“…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY…
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
PST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST
THURSDAY.
* TIMING: DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING: 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH 3 TO 7 FEET AT LAKE TAHOE LEVEL.(Note: The large font size, the capitalization, suggest, as we know, that the writer is screaming, which I am.)
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS OVER 100 MPH.
* SNOW LEVELS: BELOW LAKE LEVEL...MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO 6500 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN.
* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ALL SIERRA ROADS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL!
ROAD CREWS AND FIRST RESPONDERS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESCUE YOU.
STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE SNOW AND WIND SUBSIDE. EVEN A SHORT WALK
COULD BE DEADLY IF YOU BECOME DISORIENTED1."
As we know, extremely heavy snows in the Sierras can trigger cannabalism, It is our sincere wish that those affected by this severe storm curb his or her appetite for humans, i.e, that cannibalism does not break out in the Reno-Tahoe area, or ANYWHERE (capitalization for emphasis) in the Sierras during this terrible storm or its aftermath.
The End
————————– 1Thanks to Prof. (emeritus) Roger Pielke, Sr., Colo State, for passing this warning along. His son, a great scientist as well, btw, has the exact same name, and that’s why THIS Roger goes by “senior.” Thought you’d like to know that.
Valid Saturday morning, 5 AM, January 21st. Spaghetti was indicating a big change about then, but this is ridiculous (maybe not credible). This scenario would bring a very violent storm into southern Cal and Arizona about this time. That white region represents wind velocities of over 100 mph at 500 millibars, around 18,000 feet above sea level, and EXTREMELY unusual occurrence for that region off San Diego, CA. That would provide the energy for an exceptional lower level storm.
Is this the Big Niño pattern we’ve been waiting for all these years (well, one, anyway)? Its the kind of thing we looked for last winter during the giant El Niño and there was all that publicity about how much precip the Great Southwest would likley get. Then it was pretty much a “no show.”
Could this really be a lagged Big Niño pattern caused by a stratospheric phenomenon known as the Quasi-biennal Oscillation or “QBO”?
It was posited years ago by a researcher in a peer-reviewed journal article (not The Atlantic or Reader’s Digest) that I have been too lazy to look up, that the QBO can induce a lag in El Niño effects.
Hmmmmm.
Personally, I blew it off when I read it, but now have hope that person was onto something.
Also, in Science mag recently, it said that the “QBO was positioned to produce heavy rains in Europe”, the first time I have heard that the QBO was associated with weather in the Weathersphere where all weather occurs, clouds and storms and sh… like that. Hahaha, it is so funny to cuss right there, out of science context!
(Its not really called the “Weathersphere” but rather, the “Troposphere1“, but thanks for reading that anyway. ) ((Too much laughter-inducing caffeine imbibed this AM…))
The Troposphere is BELOW the stratosphere as my one blog reader might already know, but its generally thought that doings in the stratosphere don’t have much effect on the Troposphere. Well, unless there’s a lot of smog up there produced by a volcanic belch (like Pinatubo, which cooled the earth for a coupla years back in ’92-’93). That’s 1992 and 1993.
Will be fun to see what REALLY happens. And, oh, I guess things are collapsing sooner than around the 20th, too. But will defer to Bob and the other fine professional meteorologists to let you know about that happenstance. (There are some great photos from Yellowstone by Mike L in Bob’s last post!)
The End
—————————— 1It was suggested by this keyboard pounder in a scintillating article, oh, 50 years ago or so, in the Spartan Daily student newspaper, San Jose State, not Michigan State, that the “Troposphere” be renamed, “The Pollutosphere” due to all the crap we put in it and that we rename Earth, “Polluto”). Think of what the other civilizations out there think of us as they see things flying off the planet into outer space; “There they go, littering again….”, besides their evaluations of the increasing aerosol depth of the atmosphere.
Polluto? Fits doesn’t it , with all we’ve messed up; microplastics throughout the oceans, smog most everywhere, invasive plants and species wiping stuff out, burning up forests, etc. Perhaps renaming Earth could be seen as an honorarium of sorts for the late planet, “Pluto.” Well, that was a depressing summary. Need more coffee…and more thinking about storms!
This from a NOAA spaghetti plot interpretation by the author Arthur. Take a look:
Valid the 17th of Jan at 5 PM AST. No rain, no way! Look at the bulging lines N of CA and AZ, humped northward, indicating the presence of a storm-blocking ridge!
But, like most house of cards, by the 21st that ridge is long gone. So sometime around the 20th or so, of course, a little fuzzy at this point), look for a drastic change in the weather as troughs and storms develop. And, I will opine that we’ll see some snow this time around. See below:
Valid 21 Jan, at 5 PM AST.
That’s my excitement for today for you. Will check back on this in a few days, who knows, with more exacting information.
Once again we had a brief period of optical fireworks, as a rare “circumzenithal arc” developed overhead of Catalina in some Cirrus strands. Hope you saw it and bragged about it to your less observant friends. After saying that, follow it up in a moment of feigned reflection, speaking to no one in particular, with a comment about “how sad it is when people don’t notice the beauty in the world around them.” Your friend will appreciate what a sensitive person you are. That would be great!
Here are the scenes so many missed because you only have SECONDS to see them light up, peak out and disappear (but I saw it!):
9:28:31 AM. First highlight begins, center, leading edge.9:28:44 AM. Here we go!9:29:43 AM. Starting to really light up!9:29:45 AM. Zooming in…. Of course, like a rainbow, you would have to be exactly where I was to see this exact same sight, but I was alone and therefore, the only person in the world to see this.9:30:29 AM. Last little wisp of color goes over.
Whew, that was pretty much the climax of this event. Began to relax. calm down, as the possibility of seeing more “arcs”, began to fade. No more Cirrus was upwind.
Most of these I have seen have been due to aircraft-produced ice particles (“APIPs”, as named by Rangno and Hobbs way back in 1983, J. Appl. Meteor.), i. e., contrail like events produced by aircraft that occur at much higher than expected temperatures in “supercooled” clouds.
No Altocumulus clouds were around this line of Cirrus uncinus clouds at the time this passed over, though there were plenty around, however. Likely this was produced upwind by an aircraft in Ac clouds, and the Altocumulus droplet clouds just evaporated.
These aircraft produced ice clouds start out having prodigious, unnaturally high concentrations of ice, thousands per liter, and that in itself would lead, due to the competition of vapor among them, to tiny, pristine ice crystals like solid columns that would refract the sun’s light. So, that’s my thought on the origin of this line of Cirrus uncinus, the line itself raising suspicions about its origin. It extended much farther than shown in these photos, and was intermittent, likely reflecting where the Altocu was, and where there were holes in the coverage.
11:03 AM. Iridescence, about as good as it gets.11:07 AM. More iridescence. Hope you saw this, too.
Next, holey stuff.
Never seen anything quite like what happened in those quasi-laminar clouds that developed later in the morning over and near the Catalinas, so must show :
11:08 AM. Intrusions of dry air started punching holes in clouds all over.11:09 AM. Holes started to appear in adjacent clouds.11:09 AM. Zooming in at this strange phenomenon.11:11 AM. Geeminy Christmas, the sky is falling!11:12 AM. Closer to life size here. Pretty remarkable. Outside border of hole seemed to have collapsing cloud filaments supporting a localized downdraft punch.11:12: More holes began to appear next to the main one.11:14 AM. More hole craziness!11:15 AM. Wow. Look at the complexity in that hole.11:17 AM. This lenticular had an exceptionally smooth top, but a hole started to develop underneath and a little downwind.11:17 AM. Another dry air hole punch appeared. What an interesting day this has been so far, and its not even noon!
Well, as you could imagine, I could go on and on about this, with many more photos, but need to quit here. And besides, it pretty much cleared off in the afternoon, and the hole phenomenon ended.
12:49 PM. Wow, look how much thicker a seemingly uniformly thing layer of Altocumulus perlucidus is in those dark areas!! Not! Those are shadows from a higher splotches of CIrrus, some of the “uncinus” species. This is what I do here, try to pull a fast one on you.12:02 PM. The prior shot was looking S under the Ac per layer later in the day. Here’s what the sky looked like to the N a little earlier, providing the explanation for dark spots in that Ac layer. Haha, really fooled you at first!
Now, we take this break for art, and not fun:
“Saddle with Undulatus”. Yours for $1200, and, of course, free shipping!“saddle with Undulatus”, zoomed view, full-sized jpeg! Yours for $1800!
Some water was still flowing in one of the little creek tributaries to the Sutherland Wash yesterday. Nice.
1:53 PM.2:01 PM. Short-lived patch of Cirrocumulus undulatus (right) with larger Altocumulus elements (left) all at the same level. Also, if you can find it, and aircraft-produced patch of ice. Testing 1-2-3…..
Big rains in Cal mountains and Bay Area, some hill totals over 6 inches past 24 h, lower sites, 1-3 inches. Floody rains will take a big bite of out of drought during the nest 12-14 days.
Nothin’ reliably seen here, though, except passing high and middle clouds.
Then this, looking straight up when CMP first noticed it because he wasn’t paying attention:
11:24 AM.
A few minutes later, as it moved away:
11:27 AM.
What happened? How cold were these Altocumulus clouds?
(Answers printed upside down below).
There were more, off in the distance, too.
Here are a few more shots of this phenomenon:
11:29 AM. As it went over the horizon to the east. You can really see how strange it made the sky look. Note, too, the contrail from a much higher flying aircraft (at Cirrus levels).4:02 PM. Those fine trails of virga (center of photo, trailing in strands to the right), were “probably” created by an aircraft. They don’t look natural to me, though when this happens without producing a ice canal or a clearing, its much more difficult to be certain. Those trails look too flat, a result of likely very high concentrations of ice crystals, all of which remain small due to the competition for the vapor in that cloud, and would be too small to collide with cloud droplets. There would be no hole or canal because the rise rate of the layer is producing droplet cloud faster than the ice crystals could take it away. In the prior photos with the ice canal, which did not fill in, you can guess the rise rate of the layer that produced the Ac per was nil. Those clouds did not fill in as the ice settled downward and out of the layer. Whew, lotta typing just then.5:23 PM. Numerous holes were being punched in that cold Altocumulus layer out to the southwest of us. If you are pretty observant, you know that there is an airway out there, often filled with contrails. These, though are likely produced by those aircraft below the normal Cirrus levels, but rather would be ones departing or landing, in descent or climb modes, maybe from TUS?5:41 PM. Zooming; pretty virga, but not natural.
Now, we’re really quitting because I have other things to do, ones that have to be done, like discovering why our attic has so many rodents in it? Well, one, every so often, dammitall. Why is life one problem after another?
The pre-dawn TUS sounding, PRESUMMED representative of that Ac per layer. It would have been where the two lines pinch together, and if somehow you can read the temperature, its between -25° and -30° C.For the evening aircraft effects, there are two choices of layers. Probably was the lower, warmer one IMO.
——————————–
Answers not printed upside down instead:
It was an ice canal created in a highly supercooled layer of Altocumulus perlucidus. How cold? Whenever you see one of these in a middle cloud like Altocumulus, you can guess that its colder than -20° C. They’re rarely seen in warmer clouds. The TUS soundings suggested this layer was between -25° and -30° C. It mostly was ice free, bur regions of some slight (natural virga) were seen,
It was probably created by a jet, though the rarer prop aircraft can’t be ruled out. Seems to be associated with cooling around prop tips or some say over the wing cooling momentarily below around -40° C, though visually I would offer that its from the water-loaded exhaust, at least in jets, rather than air cooled as it goes over the wing.
0.24 inches was recorded after 7 AM yesterday, bringing our voluptuous rain total to 0.95 inches1. How nice.
Dry spell ahead now, maybe a LONG one. “Fiddle-dee-dee.”
Yesterday: another day shallow precipitating clouds and “ice multiplication”
Seemed to be another day of “ice multiplication” here in southeast Arizona, a term that was coined in 1969 by Peter Hobbs of the University of Washington when he and his group reported that clouds were snowing on the peaks of the Olympic Mountains when the cloud top temperatures were warmer than -10° C (14° F). They had a hut on the top of Mt. Olympus at 7,000 feet! Lots of stories about that experiment, many swirling around Abdul Alkezweeny, a Peter Hobbs grad student in those days. An aircraft with skis landed up there to bring supplies! Imagine. (Yours truly was not embedded in the Hobbs group at that time.) It was an exciting time in that group, prior to the acquisition of their first research aircraft, WWII B-23 “tail dragger.” Peter himself, did not fly in this with RARE exception. Many flights were quite sickening, bumping around in Cumulus and small Cumulonimbus clouds, spinning around power plants stacks, wings vertical to ground….
In a nostalgic mood, posting this photo of our venerable B-23 research aircraft in which I spent SO MANY hours!
His group’s observations, however, were not the first, but were among many airborne and ground reports in the mid and 1960s that left jaws dropping about how much ice was in clouds at these moderately supercooled temperatures, even in clouds with tops as warm as -4° C. It was believed, in various ways that ice nuclei measurements were made on the ground, or in aircraft measurements, that not much ice would be found in clouds until the top temperatures was lower than -20° C. In fact, it was generally believed that only about one ice particle per liter would be found in clouds with tops as cold at -20° C, while actual observations were telling a much different story.
This discrepancy between measured ice nuclei concentrations is a scientific enigma that is still being investigated today! And it appears that me and you cloud maven juniors out there got to see it again yesterday, the second day in a row to see an cloud-ice enigma (“nigma” for short)!
Let us continue this module by examining the assertion of “ice multiplication” with the TUS balloon soundings for yesterday morning and evening as rendered by IPS MeteoStar:
The TUS rawinsonde balloon data from yesterday morning. Launched around 3:30 AM AST.The TUS rawinsonde profile yesterday afternoon, balloon launched at about 3:30 PM AST.
These soundings strongly suggest at the start and end of the day, that coldest cloud tops were warmer or no colder than -10° C.
However, the fly in the oatmeal here is that a cold front and associated wind shift came through in the mid-morning hours, heralded by an little arcus cloud, and cloud tops would have been somewhat colder during that period of rain; we don’t know for sure how much, and satellite imagery suggested lower temperatures, though possibly due to over-riding CIrrus cloud above the “Nimbostratus” layer that produced the steady light rain.
However, the rain before the front went by, and the very light rain showers that fell in the late afternoon were likely well represented by the TUS soundings. That’s my case! Wish I’d had a cloud-instrumented yesterday and the day before. Woulda got a paper out of it: “Ice multiplication rampant in Arizona!”
Yesterday’s actual clouds
No more hand-waving…. Let’s see if it really was raining near the time of the TUS soundings above. Picture of the day:
5:18 PM. Rainbow goes INTO a RAIN GAUGE! Amazing. Proves that it was raining, though very lightly (RW–) at 5:18 PM, when the sounding profile was likely valid for these light showers. Q. E. D.! Yours for $2,000, today only. Should get a lot of money out of this photo. I had to practically have the camera on the ground to get the right alignment and illusion. 8:08 AM. Misty, light rain showers shower on the Catalinas and in Catalina itself.
8:50 AM. Misty light rain continues from relatively shallow clouds. No shafting observed, something that would suggest much taller cloud tops. These were likely “mounding” up there, like rolling hills, mounding the most prior to releasing slightly heavier rain. Here’s where you would be thinking, “Could this be ANOTHER ice multiplication day? Wow, if so.” And, of course, the thought of it being a warm rain process day (no ice, thank you) can’t be ruled out either, since rain can form at below freezing temperatures in clouds, though supercooled raindrops are the most vulnerable to freezing at high temperatures, to go a little deep here, and complex the interpretation some.
That was phase one of yesterday’s weather, rain from shallow clouds.
Phase 2 is, “The front marches in across the OV! Cloud depth not so certain, but is probably not real deep, as inferred from the disappointing amount of rain that fell so lightly from the frontal band in spite of its dramatic entrance, fronted by an arcus, wind shift cloud.”
9:55 AM. Here comes the front and arcus wind shift cloud!10:06 AM. Here the approaching front and wind shift appeared to have jacked up a cloud top near Pusch Ridge. Was thinking, as you were, maybe we’ll get some thunder today.10:14 AM. Arcus cloud rolls fast across the OV; rain follows.10:19 AM. Arcus cloud passes over Sutherland Heights, and light curtains of rain begin to fall from it.11:26 AM. The end is near. The sun became visible after only an hour of steady, very light rain, and a tenth of an inch of rain. Thought there might be a gush in this, but, no. This also points to shallow, mounding or even flat cloud tops, not tall ones. This was not a good sight.
But, as those who live here know, some of our best scenes are AFTER after the rain has stopped and the skies partially clear. Yesterday was no exception. But first, the Stratus, which you don’t see too often:
1:09 PM. Looking north at a Saddebrooke highlight. Stratus is beginning to break up out there.1:11 PM. Stratus in the cold air following the frontal passage (“FROPA”, in weather speak or texting). Not budging yet.1:35 PM. Yep, only 25 or so min later, this! So pretty. Stratus fractus lining the area around Charouleau Gap.2:30 PM.2:57 PM. Cumulus puffing up by the minute. Will they form ice?3:04 PM. Just a pretty scene of Cumulus over there toward Saddlebrooke.4:02 PM. A bit of a surprise as a group of precipitating Stratocumulus like clouds came rushing in. No shafts, suggesting tall tops were seen, so likely again just mounding tops up there.5:24 PM. As the last sprinkles ended and the sun peaked through an opening to the SW, our mountains and clouds lit up with an orange tint. As the air cooled the Stratus fractus clouds (highlighted) again were once again straddling the side of mountains near Charouleau Gap.
Looks like only streamers of high and middle cloud from the tropics as California gets blasted with extremely heavy rains over the next two weeks. Totals in favored central and northern California coastal ranges, and in the central and northern Sierras will fall between 20 and 30 inches of rain during this period. A great place for you and me to be would be near the King Range, Shelter Cove (see below), or Honeydew to see those pounders.
Part of Shelter Cove, CA, with King Range in the background. A coastal jet rams the King Range and causes prodigious rains from ordinary looking storms. Average precip more than 100 inches, farthest south point for such a high average rainfall on the West Coast.
The End
—————————– 1The online gauge is a Davis tipping bucket. It has been consistently under-measuring totals recorded in the NWS 8-inch diameter gauge, and the 4-inch diameter, ground-mounted (it sits on the ground among grasses and weeds) CoCoRahs gauge. CoCoRahs is a national organization of rain and snow measuring nuts (haha, just kidding-they’re really precipophiles like me) all over the country and overseas as well. You can find them here. Part of the reason for the under-measurement of the Davis instrument is loss due to wind. That tipping bucket sits up at about 6 feet off the ground, thus sees a lot more wind than gauges on the ground. A gauge on the ground, away from tall objects, is always the best way to go! The reason for this explanation is because if you go to Wundermaps or Weather Underground and see the total for this site, it is ALWAYS going to be low compared to the actual amount that fell. This is a degradation that has come up over the past year or two.
