Rain here in Catalina by 5 PM, Thursday afternoon, October 11th; update, Canadians hop on Catalina rain train

It says so right here, from the University of Washington Huskies’ model, after a LOT of calculations.

Take a look at the map below, valid for Thursday afternoon at 5 PM AST.  Those colored regions denote areas where Mr. Model thinks it has rained in the prior 3 h.  BTW, if you want to see all the choices of stuff you can look at, things that a model calculates, go here to the WRF-GFS “36 km grid spacing” home page.  Its pretty amazing, mind-boggling, really.  And that is only a fragment of the calculations it did based on the 5 PM global data from last evening.  It seems to look like a tenth to quarter-incher or so right now for Catalinans.

Below is the upper air pattern that goes with our rain.  As you can see, there is quite the little spinning top of an upper low over southern California, northern Baja.   You may even recall if you’re under thirty, that the “spaghetti” plots virtually guaranteed a low in the SW with the main jet stream far to the north some 10-15 days ago.  So, here it is, and it appears to be in a position to give us some rain–that part of this situation was definitely in doubt, even if the presence of a low near us wasn’t.  If this low had ended up over Vegas, forget rain.  But all of the models are now predicting this low center will be in a position to put an end to dust here beginning later Thursday.  Excellent.

Since I can’t think of anything else to say, really, I thought maybe you’d like to look into the face of a horse and wonder what it was thinking.


The End.

No!  Breaking news!  This just in! ” Live at 11″ “Right or wrong, you heard it here first!” etc.

Look what I just saw from last evening’s  11 PM AST model run from NOAA.  Its fantasy weather because it is so far off, but what a fantasy!  A giant, mind-boggling;y large, intense low center forms over Utah and draws the remnants of a tropical storm hurricane (purple region) into Arizona!  Man, it so exciting to see these kinds of “outlier” forecasts, even if you know they’re not likely to be realized, but “not likely”, is NOT impossible.  And that’s the hope and excitement here; it could happen.  Below two maps for your viewing pleasure for “only” 360 and 372 h from now, that is, Saturday night into Sunday morning, the 20th-21st of October.  Not only is there substantial rain predicted, but, its really windy too, a real storm!



—————————————————————————————————————————————————————-More updatingfor next week’s rain possibility from 12 Z (5 AM AST) Canadian model run).  In sum,

Canadians hop on Catalina rain train.

First, from last night’s 5 PM global data, there’s no rain in SE AZ (check lower right panel). Now, just 12 h later from global data at 5 AM AST TODAY, a new run has a lot of rain in SE AZ!

From 5 PM last evening, this from Canada.
From 5 AM this morning, this. Check out all that rain in SE AZ. Excellent (look above the word “above”).

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.